No secret in being right, just be prepared to be wrong, and be prepared to accept the responsibility for being wrong, then learn from it.

Thomas Watson Sr was spectacularly wrong when he said “there is a market for perhaps 6-8 computers in the world”, but IBM went on to create the industry, ride the wave, and then reinvent itself after almost dying, and today is still a dominating presence. 

Orville Wright in 1900 said “not in a 100 years will man fly”, got that wrong by 99 years, and Bill Gates dismissed the internet before recognising the mistake and radically changing Microsoft’s strategy virtually overnight, and accepting in a memo to all Microsoft employees he had made a mistake, and asking them to join him in fixing it.

When you are prepared to take a considered chance, you will get some wrong, and people forget, you will get some right, and nobody notices, and you will get a few spectacularly right, and everybody thinks you are enormously smart, and perhaps a bit lucky.