Does analysis give you the truth?

Does analysis give you the truth?

 

 

It seems that ‘the truth’ is a malleable concept.

We are overwhelmed by opinion masquerading as fact, economic and social models designed to deliver a predetermined outcome, managed correlation equated to causation, and market research that asks the wrong questions of the wrong people.

What is truth to one person is nonsense to another.

We should be able to see ‘the truth’ about what has passed, there is data that should distinguish fact from fiction. However, we still fail to discern the truth from amongst the data available for analysis.

Who is winning the war in the Ukraine?

Depends on who you ask, and both sides have data that shows conclusively that they are winning.

Remember Vietnam? I do.

The Americans had an overwhelming advantage in material, technology, and logistics. How could a little country with few resources and no technology of their own, face and win against the mightiest war machine the world has ever seen?

Impossible but it happened.

Until the Tet offensive commenced in January 1968, there was no doubt in anyone’s mind, apart from the North Vietnamese, that it was only a matter of time until the might of the Americans became overwhelming.

The Americans had data that proved to them they were winning, despite the secret conclusions contained in the Pentagon Papers. It was not until the spring offensive in 1974 that it was obvious to all that the American ‘Facts’ that were being analysed were irrelevant, and the conclusions drawn were terminally wrong.

The clear answer to the question in the header is: ‘only when you analyse the right data.’

 

Header credit: Hugh McLeod at Gapingvoid.com

 

 

 

Yesterday’s fish wrapper?

Yesterday’s fish wrapper?

 

 

Blog posts live on, as does anything posted to the net.

Sometimes they come back to bite us, sometimes they merge from a long hibernation to live again.

Last thing you want is for that Facebook photo from that wild party at university to emerge a decade later when interviewing for that ‘ideal job’.

On the other hand, a simple idea in hibernation for a decade can suddenly wake up and add new value. For someone, its time has come!

It happened yesterday.

A simple blog post from 14 years ago that has hibernated without being disturbed for most of those 14 years woke up yesterday, and went ‘ballistic’.

(Ballistic is a relative term, but in the context of the billions of posts out there, and the usual readership numbers of StrategyAudit, it was ballistic)

Whoever you are that stumbled across this old post, and obviously shared it to your networks, thanks, and I hope you are able to leverage the idea to your great benefit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4 crucial questions to unlock the power of your advertising.

4 crucial questions to unlock the power of your advertising.

 

 

Last week I provided a template for a Customer Value Proposition. The template works well, but ‘Customer Value Proposition’ is a piece of marketing jargon which just means making a promise to your customers.

This presupposes that you actually know who your ideal customers are, and what sort of promise would be attractive to them.

In the January February 2024 Harvard Business Review there is an article called ‘The right way to build your brand‘ written by Roger Martin and two Co-authors. The article sets out research that proves the hypothesis that making a specific promise to customers is more attractive than a generic claim of some level of excellence. The specific promise is about the benefit a customer will receive with use of the product. A generic claim to greatness is just about the product.

It does not surprise that the first is more powerful than the second.

‘Your promise is your strategy’ is a sub headline towards the end of the article. When you think about it, the observation must be right. Strategy is a process of influencing factors over which you have no control in such a way that the subsequent behaviour of the customers benefits your enterprise rather than an alternative. Making a promise of performance in delivering an outcome desired by a customer is about the strongest driver of short-term behaviour I can think of.

Delivering on the promise, will build trust.

Right at the end the authors ask four crucial but simple questions that can be used to determine if a proposed advertising campaign is worth investing in:

  • Is the campaign based on a clear unambiguous customer promise?
  • Were customer insights used to identify a promise the customers value?
  • Is the promise framed in a way that is truly memorable?
  • Were product marketing, sales, operations, and customer service involved to ensure the promise will be consistently fulfilled?

To me, this sounds like a comprehensive framework by which to decide if a proposed communication campaign is a worthwhile investment.

 

 

 

 

The disruptive impact of information ½ life.

The disruptive impact of information ½ life.

 

 

Following on from a previous post about the value of information, it seems relevant to ask how long any value created lasts.

We are all familiar with the notion of the ‘1/2 life’. The time it takes for radioactivity of an element to decay by 1/2. Uranium 238 has a 1/2 life of several billion years.

What about the 1/2 life of information?

The 1/2 life of a daily newspaper is arguably 1 day, today’s news is ‘tomorrows fish wrapper’. For 99.9% of blog posts, and most other so called ‘content’, it is about 2 seconds. This seems odd in what is supposedly the ‘Information age’, why is the life so short in most cases, and what make the difference for the 0.1%?

The answer seems to be: It depends on the utility of the information, which is partly a function of the ‘friction’ or resistance which is applied to its transmission.

Businesses, and most institutions are structured to be top down in functional silos, a system that evolved before digitisation of information arrived at our inboxes. This enabled the scaling of effort and the most efficient allocation of resources. A 20th century solution to the challenge of information transfer and leverage.

In the 21st century, with digitisation, the structures of the 20th century are redundant. They are simply too slow to be competitive in an environment where the action happens at digital speed on the ‘front lines’ of customer interaction. It takes too long for the siloed decision making processes to work. Customers will now move quickly to someone who is able to satisfy their need on the spot.

We have to turn our power structures upside down, and give the front lines the authority to make on the spot decisions within a much broader remit than was previously the case.

This creates huge complications for organisations, as the status quo is upset. The power people at the top have worked to achieve all their lives is diluted, and for those at the bottom, suddenly they are being tasked to take decisions that last week were being referred up the chain.

There is a driver of activity, always present, but to date well in the background for most. This is the ‘operating rhythm’ of the market in which they compete. When their decision cycles are slower than the operating rhythm of the market, the market will go elsewhere, or at the very least, opportunities will be lost.

Getting ‘inside’ the operating rhythm of your market, being able to respond quicker than the market reacts, is an emerging key to strategic success.

The 1/2 life of information is now in the hands of others, those who really count, by being customers.

That is why the OODA loop, conceived by US fighter pilot John ’40 second’ Boyd in the 60’s is so relevant to 21st century competition.

 

 

Why bother to write?

Why bother to write?

 

Last week I was copied on an email one of my clients sent to a now former supplier.

It was polite, respectful, thanking them for their service, and wishing them well. What struck me immediately was that it was not in the ‘voice’ of my client. A moment later, I realised it had been generated by AI. There is nothing wrong with that, AI is a tool, like any tool, that enables leverage to be applied to your time and effort. There are many situations where that leverage is enormously valuable. Not using it to free up cognitive capacity to do something more valuable with your time would be dumb, even irresponsible.

However, writing has a crucial and increasingly unacknowledged role. The generation of wisdom and understanding.

I write a lot. There are almost 2,500 published blog posts on StrategyAudit, a bank of thoughts, ideas, opinions, responses, and a few rants about things I believe in. It is the product of 14 years of reflection, thinking, and understanding.

Writing for me is way more than just putting words on paper, or out into the ether. It is the way I explore, clarify, focus, and reason. It is an essential tool in my thought processes that build understanding. It is also the way those ideas are shared, inviting response, in whatever form it comes, building greater understanding in the process.

Over a commercial life of almost 50 years, I have accumulated a wealth of knowledge and experience, the latter often gained at the expense of some pain. Writing about all this has made it much more real, visceral, and readily available to those few I work with.

The machinations at OpenAI, the sudden firing of CEO Sam Altman, and conflagration that is still unfolding will be a tiny ripple in the exponential process of AI development. It will do little more than create some headlines, and the opportunity for commentators who have no inside knowledge at all to express an unfounded opinion. It seems the fight is, as usual, about money. OpenAI was founded as a nonprofit with a mission to ensure responsible deployment of the emerging AI technology. Potentially a fragile mission in todays world.

I worry that the world we are leaving our grandchildren (my kids are all making their own way now) is one where superficially attractive output camouflages a lack of real understanding of the drivers of those outcomes.  To overcome this, we should encourage them to read, and write, a lot.  Put down the devices and read books, real ones, with highlighter and pen in hand to emphasise the points of new understanding, and those that need further thought and investigation.

You cannot achieve that by skating over the surface, outsourcing your thinking. Using tools that cannot think is no substitute to doing the work yourself.

 

 

The six essential copywriting tips.

The six essential copywriting tips.

 

Over the course of writing 2,500 plus blog posts and many articles and presentations while reading widely on the advice to copywriters, usually published by those desperately seeking to sell some sort of course, the commonality of advice is clear.

  • Without an attention grabbing headline you are toast. David Ogilvy noted: ‘On average five times as many people read the headline as read the body copy. When you’ve written your headline you have spent $0.80 out of your dollar”. Find a way to insert your key benefit into the headline
  • Have an early hook in the copy. This could be a question, surprising fact, contentious observation, a statement of the bleeding obvious, or even a one line joke. All of these will encourage the reader to get further into the copy.
  • Employ the bouncing magnet. Everywhere use the device of bouncing from positive to negative, to positive, back to negative, back to positive. For example, copy selling a cash flow service might read as follows:

Imagine a future where your business is thriving, cash flow is strong, and financial freedom is beckoning.

Sadly, the reality for many business owners is quite different.

Cash flow problems seem endemic.

Payment of unexpected expenses, slow debtor payments, losing a significant order, can make life a nightmare.

Don’t despair, we’re here to help you regain control.

Our proven financial management solutions have empowered many businesses to turn the cash flow challenges into opportunities for growth.

It is a fact that many financial advisors and software tools promise the world and deliver little. You’ve been burnt by these claims in the past.

Our approach is different.

We do not offer quick fixes or empty promises, we provide a tailored, data driven plan that aligns with your unique business goals and challenges.

You have a right to be hesitant given the previous promises made and broken.

That is why we offer a satisfaction guarantee: if within 60 days you are not experiencing a noticeable improvement in your cash flow, we will refund your investment in full.

Take control of your financial future today, join our satisfied clients who have seen their cash flow transformed, and dreams become a reality.

  • Consider the ratio of copy to surrounding whitespace. Blocks of dense small font copy tends to be intimidating and uninviting to the casual visitor. It is much better to have lots of white space surrounding the copy with numerous paragraph breaks to make the reading of it easy and inviting. If you need evidence of this, copy the above cash flow tool sales pitch, remove the paragraph breaks, and see how less readable it is then!
  • Say more with less. Enough said.
  • Recognise the first draught will be rubbish. First draft is what you’re setting out to say, the 3rd or 4th is how you really want to say it. There are editing tools in Word, and other commonly used writing software and AI is throwing up new editing and copy improvement tools like mushrooms after rain. Use them to assist the development of your copy. Good writing like anything that is good takes time and effort on top of some level of talent for the task.

I try and do all this in my writing, but generally I’m only able to reach a level I would consider OK. I’m a scribbler rather than a copywriter.  However as a means of organising and extracting from between my ears all the stuff going on, it is an absolutely necessary exercise. The quality of the writing in technical terms is an entirely different matter, and ultimately up to the reader

PS. Where do I buy that cash flow tool?