Jan 14, 2013 | Collaboration, Social Media
Perhaps the most profound effect of the now almost ubiquitous availability of connectivity is the move from a communication landscape that is controlled by the few who have the capital to buy the gear and produce stuff with it, to everybody with a mobile phone being a producer.
The old world, where there were two options, one to many, as in the case of a publisher of any media, or one to one, as in the case the telephone and letter, is dead. Now we have many to many, and the old way has been swamped.
It happened in the London bombings in July 2005. The news of the bombings was broken by commuters with phones, and for a while those caught inside the security cordons set up were the only source of information. The news of the earthquake in China in 2008 exploded onto the net before the US Geological service posted news that an earthquake had happened onto its information site. It now happens every day, the NSW bushfires were first reported by passersby, and the alert mechanisms for places in danger now rely on social media.
On a similar, but far more personal vein, I heard of the death of Arran Swartz over the weekend via various blog sites I follow, but did not see the first news story until about 5 minutes ago. Vale a true activist innovator, gone way too young.
Marketers who wish to remain relevant need to adjust their thinking to accommodate and leverage this revolution in the velocity of information. Indeed, the only organisations unaffected are those that contain only one person. Hermits are pretty rare these days, and they probably have a phone anyway.
Jan 12, 2013 | Change, Management, Small business
Below are 10 predictions I made at a meeting this week of owners of SME’s in Sydney’s inner west. It is a quick list I jotted down in the 10 minutes before the meeting, but on reflection, I actually thought they were OK, therefore I am prepared to live or die by them.
So, here goes:
- Marketing is digital and personal, mass marketing is dead! Get personal and get digital, they are complementary, not mutually exclusive.
- Social media will overtake traditional news dissemination channels. Just look at where the news about the current fires came from, those on the spot with mobiles and net connections. The rest of us get the dramatic pictures a few hours later if the cameras can get in, but the real “news” is reported by individuals on the spot using twitter et al. (Just think about that as evidence of empowerment for a moment)
- A few smart SME’s will do very well, but the rest will at best struggle, and many will fail. The scale of operations necessary for success is relative to the size of the niche occupied, and most SME’s try to be all things to all people, and fail at being relevant to enough to ensure success.
- The new “cool” for our kids is to train as a “tradie” as there are insufficient fulfilling jobs left for those with modest, non vocational degrees, to fill demand from the aforementioned graduates.
- The shortage of willing and able workers will continue, as we no longer train people to work, we train them to “expect”.
- The 40% of SME’s who do not have web sites, or have sites that act only as an electronic brochure rather than as a magnet to their target customers need to realise they are missing the opportunity to grab the lifeline. Failure to grab the lifeline, well, refer to prediction 3.
- “Big Data” the combination of traditional data bases and the behavioural and attitudinal data scavenged from social media will become the next big thing during 2013.
- Mobile will take over from fixed line, comprehensively, and across all communication channels.
- The economy will continue to slow, consumers are cautious and risk averse. We are caught between a European economy that is truly stuffed, a US economy that whilst showing some signs of life, is extremely fragile even after the dills kicked the “fiscal cliff’ down the road a bit, a Chinese economy that is still robust on paper but is turning inward to meet domestic demand rather than exporting manufactured goods, and so needs less of our commodities. These things together with the very high $A, and a determination by our “leaders” to continue to say how well we are doing while denying the caveat that we are doing well relative to the rest, who are really crap. (compared to blokes on crutches I am still a fast runner, but compared to anyone who can really run, I am nowhere near where I was 40 years ago). This is notwithstanding Bruce’s optimism, and correct assessment that his industry is a “canary in the mine” but look where the housing market has been in the last couple of years.
- Around July/August, the economy will stumble into a really nasty hole as we approach a Federal election. Never in my memory have we been “led” by two such unpopular leaders. Unpopular they may be, as have been others in the past who have in fact been successful leaders, but the flip side, respect, is not there either, and being unable to respect your leaders, even if you do not like them is a real problem.
There you go, my 10 predictions.
Hold me to them as we progress through the year, it may make for some lively debate at some point.
Jan 10, 2013 | Management, Operations
How often have I heard the phrase ” he needs to get his ducks in a row before he can progress”, or some variation thereof.
Often, and most recently yesterday, as a reason that less than expected progress had been made on a project. Unexpected distractions had prevented the foundation work being done, just as it had before Christmas, and in October.
I do not want to hear any more about the challenges of organising to get the ducks in a row, I want to hear what you are doing with the bloody ducks!
Are your ducks flapping, delivering value, in 2013?
Jan 9, 2013 | Collaboration, Operations, Small business
We all negotiate every day, from the small mundane things in our lives to once in a decade decisions.
Two simple considerations play a key role in the outcome:
1. Controlling the environment in which the negotiation takes place, and
2. Constructing the conversation such that the other party nominates their expected outcome first.
A successful negotiation is one that has all parties leave the table happy and prepared to execute on the agreement, but consider the impact at something like location can have on the behavior.
Imagine you are negotiating a major deal, and the other party nominates a 5 star location as the venue, compared to going to their plant and conducting the negotiation in the factory lunch-room. It is likely that the differing locations will impact on your expectations?.
Anchoring is the psychological process underlying the point from which a negotiation starts, and generally dictates the region in which it finishes.
Research by Daniel Kahneman, the psychologist with a Nobel laureate in economics, displays this anchoring behaviour in experiments using a roulette wheel. He asked subjects to guess the percentage of African nations in the UN after spinning the wheel. Was the number greater or less than the number on the wheel?. Subjects who saw a low number on the wheel consistently guessed the percentage of African membership lower than those who saw a high number.
Clearly the roulette wheel has no impact on the number of African UN members, but the number at which the wheel stopped played a significant role in anchoring responses to the question.
Jan 8, 2013 | Management, Strategy
Ever heard of John R. Boyd? I hadn’t until I stumbled across this article in Fast Company magazine.
Observation, Orient, Decision, Action.
Instinctively it seems to make sense, Observing and understanding the pressure points, orienting your thinking to reflect the evolving situation, making resource deployment decisions to leverage the opportunities emerging, then executing on them, whilst going through the processes again, and again, as more information becomes available.
A variation on the Shewhart circle, which is now well known as the Plan Do Control Act (PDCA) circle in manufacturing, applied to competitive strategy with the wrinkle that the focus is not improving your own performance, but destroying the oppositions ability to compete effectively.
I have often said that getting inside your oppositions head is the best competitive strategy you could have. The OODA loop is simply a template to organise and focus the process.
Update: August 2017. I found this long article on Medium that also provides an outline of OODA. A useful addition.
