Visual analytics and statistics

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Analytics is perhaps the buzzword of the moment, it seems to be attracting some of the same purveyors of snake-oil previously touting SEO as the saviour of all sins.

Amongst the detritus, however, there are some gems. Avinash Kaushik’s  “Occum’s Razor” blog is one such gem, as is Scott Brinkers” Chief marketing technologist” blog. I am sure there are others, but the weight of numbers  is with the snakes.

A mate of mine has a small business specialising in collecting data from HR environments, applying analytics and offering advice on areas of improvement. Tasks like board performance  assessment are his bread and butter.

A few weeks ago in a casual conversation, he was down cast, as he had been beaten in a tender by a competitor, for the third time recently, when he knows from long experience the algorithms in his analytics are way more robust than those of his competitor. The difference in the tenders was made not by the analytics, but by the visual representations of the analytics. His  competitor has invested in visuals, whereas he has continued to invest in the data integrity.

Visuals sell, as they offer simplistic answers to complex questions, but  the question remains, how good are the answers.

WCB spits the curd

WCB sold

It has been pretty certain that control of Warrnambool Cheese and Butter (WCB) would change since the opening bid by Bega Cheese in September  last year. It rapidly became an auction as rival bidders emerged, and WCB shareholders struck the short term jackpot.

The only real question left was whether control remained in Australia, or it went overseas. Seems that question is now answered,  as Canadian Saputo becomes the beneficiary of Bega’s 18.8% holding lifting their stake to nearly 50%, with a rush of acceptances expected in the last few days of the offer period.

Progressively, the Australian dairy industry in particular, and Australian food manufacturing in general has been sold off, slice by slice,  overseas to the point where there is not  much left. Now that the $A has retreated,so that on paper  it looks like local suppliers should be more competitive with the global supply chains of the major retailers, there is buggar all locally owned manufacturing left.

It may be seen by some to be a bit jingoistic  to want to have control over the supply chain that feeds us, but I see it as common sense. Australia is an efficient, technically advanced supplier of commodities, from grains to meat, wool, and minerals, but the further processing and value adding is very limited.

Realistically, there is little the Government can do beyond developing robust industry policy, then applying that policy with apolitical consistency, something neither side of politics seems able to do. Policy consistency seems to be trumped by short term political expediency every time, and in the long term, we are all the poorer for it.

It is up to Australian management to see the opportunities and invest for the long term, and they have largely failed to measure up. In addition, it seems persuading the suppliers of capital that returns sometimes take longer than the next quarterly period to emerge is a large barrier. The pool of genuine risk and venture capital in this country is very shallow indeed.

The idea muscle

brainpower

We all know instinctively that with exercise, we get better. Running, jumping, swimming, all that stuff makes us fitter, healthier, but it takes time and effort, and we are all busy.

Busy doing what?  Besides, running is boring, sweaty, and bad for the knees.

We also know that going to school is supposed to teach us stuff that is useable in life, like how to solve a quadratic equation. Last time I did that was 5 minutes before I forgot how to do it, 45 years ago, so perhaps not such a great life skill, for me at least.

However, exercising our brain, our idea muscle if you like seems pretty important however, you think about it.

A friend of mine is stricken by a form of muscular dystrophy, debilitating and dehumanising physically, but rather than becoming despondent and reclusive, she has sought places where she can exercise the only muscle unaffected by the physical depreciation, her brain.

Creative, interesting, engaging, hugely knowledgeable, and with a couple of extra languages over the last decade, she has exercised her idea muscle in a way that would not have happened, she assures me, without the affliction.

In a world that is changing before our eyes at a rate unprecedented in history, where jobs for life are no longer, ambiguity and uncertainty are increasing exponentially, surely we need to consider what exercises we should be taking and teaching that make our idea muscles fitter.

Most certainly, we should be teaching our kids how to exercise this muscle, they will need it more than we ever did.

 

Marketing flatulence

flatulance

Every day I get stuff by email that purports to make me some sort of compelling offer, something that some dill out there kids himself (herself?) that I need.

It often starts:

Dear Alan (wrong spelling)

I am the CEO of Buttstuffers & Co, we are experts at something that we know will add  50% to your bottom line.  Hopefully you are the right person for us to talk to. (I do not care who is the CEO of Buttstuffers, I do not know  who they are, what they do, all I care about is how in hell they got my name, and yes, I am the right person, because I can ignore you, or more satisfyingly, tell you to piss off)

I would like to offer you a free ???????????, guaranteed to work for you, just to demonstrate our goodwill. (too late, my quotient of goodwill disappeared when you misspelt my name, and since then you have just managed to annoy me)

Download our free whitepaper now for more information. (Why would I do that, all it does is confirm an email address, and give you more information to throw  more crap at me that demonstrates you are simply full of it)

We are experts at:

Marketing automation

Marketing ROI

SEO

Creating client relationships

Etc,etc.etc.

(If you were expert in any of this, which I seriously doubt,  you would not have sent  me this. In former times, you would be selling snake oil)

It gets really tiresome, marketing flatulence like this just  gives those of us who genuinely care about what you think, and how your business can improve, and how our expertise and experience may assist, a bad name.

I tell my clients it is part of the price we pay for the tools that the web delivers, but nevertheless, flatulence smells bad irrespective of the cause.

Return on Humans

app-economy-e1388924938191

Most business leaders are familiar with the notion of return on capital, funds invested, etc, and those same leaders often say something along the lines of “our people are our  most important asset” weather they believe it of r not, behave like it is the truth or not.

However, here is the rub of 2014.

Our machines are becoming rapidly more capable. Apple launched the iphone in 2007, and the App store a year later, creating a revolution that is evolving and spreading at huge speed, disrupting everything in its path.

Forget Angry Birds, the nonsense hit game of 2011, and its ilk, but look at  the way Apps are being used in medical  science, geo location, and a thousand other places, disrupting as  they go.

As this all progresses, the machines take over from people, the gap between the smart, innovative, educated and creative people and the rest is widening.

On average we are  degrading the value of the people around us, an increasingly small number are hugely valuable, the rest are being replaced, the return on capital is increasing, the return on people is decreasing.

I do not think it is 1984 yet, but leaders should be adding the calculation of return on humans into their strategic matrices as they plan the next 3-5 years capability building initiatives.

Of greater concern should be the social consequences of this trend, and the steps our communities should be taking to address the problems that will become generational, way, way beyond an election cycle.

Wake up Canberra, and the rest of our closeted, self interested pollies.