In search of ‘Rundle’

In search of ‘Rundle’

Subscription revenue is the new normal
What you may ask, is a ‘Rundle’?

 

A new word, made up to represent a ‘Recurring Revenue Bundle‘, an idea whose infancy was spent in software, but that is now reaching puberty in other markets.

 

The result of this pubescence is that business models are in the midst of  radical change from ‘Ownership’ to ‘Usership’. The revenue and marketing models of software have moved from purchase to  subscription, and following will be, almost everything that can be bundled as a service.

 

This is not a new idea, it is the foundation of the success of Xerox, charging by the copy, rather than selling copying machines, and Gillette in its early days, giving away the razors in order to sell the blades.

 

Given the boldness of that forecast, there is another thing that will emerge:  Control of distribution will  be essential. If you have a recurring revenue model, and no control of your distribution, you will be screwed.

 

Let’s consider cars, personal transport. Are we beginning to see the trend now, as differing companies place cars for ‘digi-rent’ in heavily populated neighbourhoods around the inner city. If you are going to digi-rent a car, it will not usually matter what the car is, beyond a functional definition: takes four kids, has a bike rack, and so on. So, the power of the brand of car will move towards the platforms that rent them out. If you are running Ford, or Mercedes, you need control of the platform from which the cars will be Digi-rented, in order to keep being able to move cars off the end of the production line.

 

What then will differentiate the Ford platform from the Mercedes platform? 

 

Distribution.

 

You can see the beginnings of the battle to come in the subscription entertainment services. Netflix Vs HBO Vs Stan, and all the rest, now including the newly launched Apple TV and Disney. There is not room for them all, so there will be billions thrown at content, and most will end up  in the hands of the few who control the distribution, building arithmetically on the recurring revenue.

 

My prediction is that Disney will be one of the last standing. They have a great brand, huge back catalogue, the cash reserves to churn out more great stuff, but their most important asset is the extension of the subscription services into other revenue sources. Licencing, Disney world, holidays, games, and all the other areas where the Disney brand has an existing or expandable position. The other winner will be Amazon, who have a platform, including Prime, that is in 55% of US homes, and rapidly taking over in other geographies. Distribution is automatic and bundled. The current leader, Netflix, is out on its own, great first mover advantage, but lacking the broad competitive base of Disney and Amazon.

 

The rest, beyond the very specific, super focussed services that will inevitably emerge, are toast.

 

Instead of products, you will be seeking to create ‘Rundles’ or Bundles of a value proposition to keep people coming back for more, rather than marketing to convince people to buy again.

 

The strategic task: Build barriers to churn.

Have we only ourselves to blame for ‘The Bug?’

Have we only ourselves to blame for ‘The Bug?’

We have a political situation of our own making.

It is very hard to convince people to invest against the possibility of something that may happen at some time in the future. The cost of the investment is immediate and measurable, the benefit unknown, and perhaps some time in the future.

In a democracy it is very hard to get people to vote for something they cannot see and feel, immediately. We moan, and I am a chief moaner, about the lack of foresight and planning evident, that has enabled the bug to run riot through our economies, but do we only have ourselves to blame?

There are three types of actions that can be taken by any organisation, public or otherwise.

  1. Reactive. These are decisions and actions taken after an event.
  2. Responsive. Actions and decisions taken as events are unfolding
  3. Pre-emptive. Actions and decisions taken in anticipation of an event designed to mitigate the impact.

If we were to categorise the performance of our various governments over the past 12 months, I would say that in relation to the fires that started in September last year, they were reactive, and even that is being very kind. The floods, now almost forgotten in February, the response was again reactionary, and sadly lacking substance. In relation to the Corona bug, they seem to have done better and been responsive, taking decisive action as events unfolded, and being prepared to adjust the response as more data becomes available.

Coming out of this, I would like to see some sort of pre-emptive actions taken to mitigate the impacts of the next catastrophe, whether it be another bug, fire, flood, or financial meltdown. As a country we have to build our operational resilience, meaning the ability to invest so that the impacts do not drown us.

Do this, and we will be a much stronger nation. Alas, in a democracy this is really hard, as it requires a collective desire to invest now without any idea of the outcome or payback, and electorates are not good at this.

This difference neatly explains the quick and substantial reaction to the current Corona crisis, but our almost total of lack planning and investment to mitigate the impact of climate change.

The current idea of a location app on our phones is a great example of the dilemma we face.

It makes absolute sense that we are able to track the movements of people in the face of a highly infectious disease, to see with whom they interact, even by chance, so that we can throw a ring fence around the bug. Most would probably agree,  but the downside is that we do not trust the politicians and ‘forces of evil’ to turn the thing off, and leave it off, when the crisis is over, thereby impinging on our rights to privacy.

In a democracy, like , this will probably mean a very good idea is thrown away. However, I bet that in a different system, it would be embraced, as public sentiment would not matter, and is kept private anyway as a means to stay out of the spotlight, which can be a dangerous place to be.

 

Header cartoon: courtesy David Rowe, AFR.

 

 

6 ways SME’s can leverage a Corona induced Pareto

6 ways SME’s can leverage a Corona induced Pareto

 

We all know the 80/20 rule, the Pareto principle, understand it, talk about it, then do nothing to implement it, for all  the wrong reasons.

 

The CEO created that brand as a product manager, the Chairman bought that company, or opened that factory when he was CEO (it was usually a man), the Operations Manager is committed to that highly efficient machine that produces 15,000 widgets an hour even though we only sell 15,000 in a month, so our inventory requires a new warehouse. The list goes on.

 

One of the silver linings in the Corona cloud is the forced pause, the opportunity to reflect on the dumb crap all businesses accumulate over the years, and have a spring clean.

 

This is a once in a generation spring-clean opportunity, while everyone is in lockdown, trying to manage Zoom while their kids (and in my case, grandkids) play ‘star wars’, or something equally as noisy around the desk. An opportunity to start again with an almost clean sheet of paper, to exercise the answer to the: ‘What if we could start again’ question, except you have a running start, because, come the revival, some of you will still have a business.

 

Here is the spring clean list;

 

Products. Get rid of those that have no differentiated position, strategic importance or margin. Not revenue, margin, as revenue is pointless other than in a launch phase without margin. Nobody come the revival will even realise it has gone.

 

Business model. Digital has changed forever the business models that most senior managers grew up with, but the whole business is oriented towards that dinosaur. Run away, as fast as you can, and experiment with the many alternatives while you have the opportunity. Your business model is the way you deliver value to customers. make sure you find the better  way to achieve that outcome than the way you have always done it.

 

Brands. Just like products, almost every business has too many brands, each has some great reason to be kept in the good times. Usually it is to satisfy someone’s ego, but when the chips are down, as they are now, all they do is take up working capital, operational time, warehouse space, and management attention, usually in the opposite proportion to the margin they deliver. Chop, chop!

 

Distribution channels. This has a lot to do with business models, but is significant enough to have a caption of its own. Distribution channels drive revenue, and the channels that drove revenue 20 years ago, upon which many businesses were built, are no longer as relevant, and getting less relevant as each month goes by. If we have learnt anything over the last few years, it is that only those with direct communication with the buyer, uninhibited by someone clipping the ticket in the middle, who will be successful in the long run.

 

Personnel. Every business has a few pieces of dead wood hidden in the corners where they can do little harm. Sometimes a relic of times past, often an early employee who deserves the loyalty, sometimes just not up to the job they are in. The Peter Principal at work. You will never get a better chance to make ‘adjustments’, and be subsidised to do it.

 

The marketing budget. As times get tough, the marketing budget is usually the first to be chopped. Before chopping, have a critical and realistic look at what works, and what does not. Having made the rational, data driven decisions double down on the elements that do  work, especially in the slimmed down, lean and mean business you have created. In fact, double it, as everyone else will be cutting. There is a once in a generation opportunity to position yourself as ‘The one’ while the others are hiding.

 

Now you have done the exercise once, do it again, the benefits will be compounded as you focus progressively on the activities the deliver real value rather than are just activities that fill the time.

 

Pareto the Pareto!

 

 

 

Ask yourself the hardest question: Today!

Ask yourself the hardest question: Today!

A question I always ask my clients at some point in an improvement initiative is: “what would a VC firm do if they took over management today?

It always leads to deep and challenging conversations, that lead to a recognition of things happening, or indeed, not happening, in a business that is delivering sub optimal outcomes.

Waste from many sources, such as rework and excess inventory, fragmented internal processes, friction for customers, sub optimal performance of machinery, functional misalignment, missed opportunities, and many others.

Approaching the identification of problem areas as a third party might, allows people to open up and be constructively critical of the status quo, and envision what changes should be made. 

 Being as we are in the middle of a crisis, you no longer need to envisage what a VC might do in the event they turned up to rape and pillage the business, it is happening around you by ‘The Bug’.

There has never been a better time, except last year, to ask yourself the question.

Second best time is right now.

When you have some of the answers, do  not waste any time implementing. The state of your cash reserves and sales pipeline will dictate the urgency of action, and some may, with the benefit of the hindsight you do not yet have, not be the absolute best option.

However, doing nothing is not an option, so get on with it and implement. 

 

5 steps to resilience in the face of a crisis

5 steps to resilience in the face of a crisis

 

All of the advice gratuitously sprayed around the web, and via the millions of video conversations going on, ‘Resilience’ is a very commonly used word.

However, what is it we actually mean by ‘resilience’?

The oxford dictionary definition is: ‘The capacity to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness’. Does that cover it?

To my mind, James Stockdale, US Vice presidential candidate, medal of honour winner, POW for 7 years in Hanoi put it best: ‘Resilience means striking a balance between facing the brutal truth of how bad things can get,  while also retaining confidence that you will survive to see the other side’

When you think about resilience in the context of what we are currently facing, and you consider the strategic rather than just tactical implications, there are a limited number of management levers you can pull. Luckily, they are powerful when activated well, and at the right time.

Act quickly, and decisively.

It will be better to be early and decisive than late and ambiguous, by which time, you may no longer be in a place that enables you to come back.

Cash is your lifeblood.

Get cash in, as fast as possible, and, cut every activity that does not add immediate value greater than its total cost. There are many strategies to achieve this outcome, the most obvious are: Collecting from debtors, shore up existing revenue sources, such as your current core customers, selling down inventories, and focussing your best revenue generation resources on the highest priority areas and customers. The most commonly used tactic is to delay payment to your creditors. This is a desperation tactic, as once you start that cycle, you in turn will not receive the goods/services you require from your suppliers, and word does get around quickly.  I also suggest a review of your cash to cash cycle in order to identify the components of your processes that could be speeded up to remove time, and therefore working capital requirements.

Collaborate and share the pain.

The better you maintain your supply and distribution ecosystems, the faster you will be able to rebound. This means you work with them, assisting them to manage their cash while you manage yours, support their key staff, reinforce the relationships that already exist by communication, and work with them in every way possible.

Embrace the opportunity of uncertainty.

One persons problem is another’s opportunity. In uncertain days, those that are willing and able to recognise the opportunities that will emerge from the uncertainty, and act quickly and decisively, will emerge quickest, and perhaps even stronger.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

Having a plan is essential, but you also need to consider the differing scenarios that may emerge. Planning for the worst means you are never surprised by that worst when it happens, but are in a better position when it does not occur.  That means you need a plan that articulates the response to varying potential situations. In my experience, 3 is a reasonable number.

  • The ‘Hail Mary’ plan. This is for the worst case scenario, the last resort. Selling significant assets, deep layoffs, a radical contraction of activities. Planning how you would execute such a plan prepares you for the pain should it come to pass, and also offers insight into the less than worst case options, and what they may be, in a graduated manner. This is just about the survival of the core of the business, to offer the opportunity for some rebuild after the chaos clears.
  • Tough but not future limiting plan. This is the plan that removes every ‘nice to have’ in the organisation, the time to make the very hard calls that have to date been kicked down the road for another time. This may be that time.
  • Reversible plan. What actions can be taken now that are reversible, perhaps in revised form, should the former two scenarios not come to pass.

 

Beyond the planning for immediate survival, you also need to be able to think beyond the current crisis, assuming you have survived, and now are able to leverage the opportunities that will emerge. It is hard to lift your eyes to the future when the current looks so bleak, but those that do so will emerge the winners. As Churchill once quipped; ‘Never let a good crisis go to waste’