Future retail success will come from ‘Organic Intelligence’

Future retail success will come from ‘Organic Intelligence’

 

There is some really interesting and contradictory stuff going on in retail.

On line shopping is continuing to expand at breakneck speed, so we are told. According to Statista.com the current percentage in Australia is 7.2%, but the percentage varies enormously from very little to an astonishing (estimated)  19% in China.

Small brands are being created, that rapidly become big brands, such as Shoes of Prey, that would not have been able to get off the ground pre internet, and bricks and mortar retail is struggling, going out of business at a rapid rate.

The latest casualty is Sears, the ‘Amazon’ of a former era, started in 1886 by Richard Sears, selling watches on the side of his day job as a railroad station manager. After the first catalogue was produced in 1896, to bring access to goods to the widely spread American population, Sears expanded geometrically. It was an entirely mail order operation, ‘analogue on line’ until the first store bricks and mortar store opened in 1925 adjacent to the distribution centre. The  following rapid spread of stores, saw the end of ‘Mum and Pop’ stores around the country, who could not compete with the range or prices that Sears offered.

Sound familiar?

Sears became a huge diversified business, accumulating a huge property portfolio as well as associated businesses and brands they owned, but it started to unravel in the mid 90’s, just as ‘Big Box’ retailers moved in, and the net evolved as an alternative channel.

Now we have Apple and Amazon investing billions in bricks and mortar stores, re-imagining them, but they are still bricks and mortar, and they are profoundly successful.  Apple, on a sales per square foot basis, the standard retail KPI, is the most successful retailer in the world. Amazon effectively acquired Whole foods for nothing, paying $US13.6 Billion for the chain, then seeing the share price rise in the following days by more than that amount on the back of the purchase. While Whole Foods is yet to make the expected profits, it is early days. On top of that you have Amazon bookstores and Amazon Go carving out a niche.

When the two most innovative and successful  retailers in the world double down on a business model, it might be worth a close look, and when it resembles an older model, but is clearly superior, that examination should be very thoughtful indeed.

The factor that has driven the success of Amazon, and all other on line retail, is Artificial Intelligence. The ability to write code that can trawl through mountains of data, identify patterns, and alter the output as a result of that recognition. They get better with use, but within the boundaries of the algorithms.  The factor that made Sears, and all other analogue retailers successful over the years, and has taken Apple to new heights, is the opposite side of the coin.

Organic Intelligence.

That ability of human beings to exercise empathy, and make connections an algorithm cannot yet make, and perhaps never will.

Apple and Amazon are learning to use both together,  and are streaking ahead as a result. Meanwhile, those legacy retailers who have not figured out AI are struggling, and more often than not, reducing their investments in Organic Intelligence as a short term means to reduce costs, so assisting in their own demise, as did Sears.

I wonder of any of the legacy retailers in this country will still be around in a decade?. To me it looks like the only one in the FMCG market that has demonstrated an understanding of the power of Organic Intelligence is Harris Farm.

 

 

 

 

 

What is your businesses key metric?

What is your businesses key metric?

Every business has a key strategic metric, one that encapsulates the productivity of the investments made in the business, that can be tracked over time, and broken down progressively as you move into the operational levels of your business.

The metric you choose should reflect the strategic choices you make. It should never be about profit, which is just an outcome, the metric you choose should be the single thing that drives the commercial sustainability of your business. It also acts as a ‘touchstone’ for everyone in the business, from the Directors to the cleaner. Everyone knows, understands, and can relate what they do in some way to  the metric, it removes any confusion about what is important.

I have two acquaintances working in senior roles in large law firms. One is judged on his ‘Billable hours,’ the other on the rolling annual value of the clients he handles. The first  works 70 hours/week, and ensures that every available 10 minute period in his diary is billed to somebody, for something. The other concentrates on the relationships he builds with his clients, setting out to become their legal ‘go- to’ man, providing advice on a range of issues in their businesses, often issues he sees before they do, given the ‘engagement’ he has.  Both manage staff that have similar KPI’s directly feeding into theirs.

Two distinctly different KPI’s in very similar businesses that result in very different outcomes for both the employees and the clients.

Bricks and Mortar retailers all use some variation of the sales or gross margin/square foot of retail space as a key KPI. It may be calculated in slightly different ways, but all use it, and cascade the measure down through their organisations, in both the store management and buying functions. On line retailers  by contrast generally measure the cost of acquisition of a new customer, and their ongoing lifetime value.

What is your key metric, and how does it reflect your strategic choices?

 

 

The 5 strategic dimensions of price

The 5 strategic dimensions of price

Setting prices is one of the most challenging, but often sidelined management decisions. Given that price has more impact on the bottom line than any other single factor, it is crazy that it is so often left until the last moment, or to a superficial assessment. The manner in which price is packaged and delivered should attract considerable time and creative effort.

In many cases the consideration goes little further than looking at costs, competing prices, and perhaps the gross margin.

Nowhere near enough.

Just setting an arbitrary price, struck at the last moment, without deep consideration seems irresponsible. Pricing strategy is the most important variables over which management has control, and that control should be exercised to reflect your strategic priorities, while delivering maximum value to your customers.

In order to find the best ‘fit’ between these two usually competing outcomes, there needs to be more than just passing consideration given.

There are two processes to undertake.

  1. Set a pricing architecture.
  2. Set a price list.

These are fundamentally different, but the first should always drive the second.

Striking a price architecture should be a strategic process. It is a trade-off between the wide range of factors that drive a customers purchase choice in various circumstances, and the costs and margins involved in addressing those choices.  However, once set, the architecture of your pricing should be reasonably stable.

The actual price lists built on top of the pricing architecture can be varied as often as you like, and as often the market in which you operate will allow, in response to  the factors that drive purchase.

In some markets, you will have little room to move, in others, there will be a wide range of options. The common factor is that a responsible management maximises the return over the long term, which necessarily involves having satisfied, repeat customers, with a minimum of churn.

In every case the price set will be the end result of a range of trade-offs that are made. The most obvious and clearly understood is the simple  price/units trade-off, but this comes at the end of a wide range of trade-offs made in the manner in which the architecture is constructed.

Business model.

Every business model has its own characteristics that have an impact on the way prices are set.

In a retail franchise model, the prices are often set by head office, and the individual franchised outlet has limited ability to vary them.  A supplier of grocery products through an Australian supermarket, has almost no control over price if they want to retain distribution. The seller of a bespoke solution to an expensive problem can set their own price, so long as it remains slightly below the cost of the problem, and guarantees the solution.

The emergence of the web as a sales channel has led to a rapidly expanding menu of pricing options.  The SAAS industry in increasingly using subscription models differentiated by the availability or otherwise of some sort of ‘tripwire’ or ‘freemium’ model followed by varying price levels based on features, available seats, transaction numbers, and a host of other variables from which customers can choose.

Market power.

In a monopoly, the monopolist can set his own prices at the point that maximised the profitability, without regard to the well-being of stakeholders beyond the shareholders. At the other end of the scale, when supplying a raw commodity, you have no pricing power at all, you will be purely a price taker.

Spending some time considering Michael Porters ‘5 forces’ will be time well spent.

Almost all situations fall somewhere in between a commodity and a monopoly, and in most situations there are substitutes, or the threat of substitutes emerging when the margins become sufficiently attractive.

Market power can be built by the process of branding, which requires long term investment  and again, trade-offs. Apple currently sells about 15% of mobile phone units sold around the world, but has 85% of the profit in the mobile phone market. This is an almost unique situation, matched by few ever before, the possible only others were Kodak, in their heyday, and Microsoft in the 90’s. Currently emerging we see the Digital trio, Facebook, Google and Amazon who have huge market power setting prices in ways that reflect the depth of that power.

Strategic priorities.

Price is a primary indicator of the positioning of your product in the minds of customers. The level of price is very often used as a signal of quality. Think about the array of wines in your local grog shop. To most, the majority are unfamiliar, and they lack the objective experience to make judgements, so price becomes a default indicator of quality.

Apple as noted has done a masterful job of reflecting the strategic priority of margin over volume.  By contrast, Aldi has become successful  in every market they expand into  by keeping overheads and transaction costs to an absolute minimum throughout their supply chains, and reflecting these savings in low shelf prices, which delivers volumes.

One producer of dried pasta in Australia holds a 70% market share with a combination of a dominating proprietary brand, many alternative and cheaper brands across every conceivable distribution channel, together with supplying pretty much all the house brand products in the market. There is a pricing matrix that covers the whole market, creating meaningful differentiation of price and brand. They do this by leveraging the economies of scale they have built in the operational processes throughout the production chain, from the control of the supply of grain through to the packaging of the end product, and ensuring that nobody else can compete on price. It has been a masterful job, implemented with consistency and determination over a 30 year span. The retail price you pay for dried pasta varies enormously, but the cost of the products are differentiated only by the characteristics of the semolina used, a marginal cost difference in the scheme of things. However, having watched blind tastings of pasta, the knowledgeable consumers can pick the premium brand from the others, in order of quality of the grain in some (hidden to me) taste and texture characteristics with unfailing accuracy.

Price packaging

Packaging of price is not something most would think about in a specific manner as they would the external product packaging. However, any price list with some sort of structure that reflects volume, channel, or some other sort of difference is in effect price packaging.

Creative thinking about the packaging of pricing can pay huge dividends. A feature that adds no value will not attract a customer, but the same feature that does add value to someone else becomes a benefit that can be priced for that customer.

A friend just bought a European sports car, lovely thing at an inflated price based on the marque, with a long list of ‘optional extras’. He chose the few ‘extras’ he wanted, all the while whingeing that a much cheaper Korean sports car, with similar performance (according to his research) that did not have the cachet of the brand he bought, had them all as standard. Both are examples of price packaging, in a manner that is driven by many of the other marketing and strategic characteristics of the choices available.

Behavioural drivers

We are increasingly aware that psychology has a huge impact on our behaviour, and as a result, those who understand the psychology can ‘manage’ the drivers of price to their benefit.  Anyone with responsibility for the construction of price should be aware of  the basics at least. The original (readable) book was ‘Influence’ by Robert Cialdini in 1993, followed up more recently by a new book ‘Pre-Suasion’ in late 2016, both of which add considerably to the well-known principals of ‘anchoring‘ and the ‘Rule of three.’

Anchoring is simply the first price that is mentioned usually becomes the basis of the following conversation, so the logic is anchor high.  The rule of three is where you ensure there are three alternatives with differing prices, and you present the highest first, which makes the others look cheaper, and uses the high price as the anchor. Any more options than three, and you risk confusion creeping in and the greater possibility of a no decision as a result. Add to these models is the obvious $24.99 price instead of $25.00 which works all the time, and the common ‘Huge savings on special’ offers where the saving is calculated against a price that nobody in their right mind would pay.

The more you dig into the behavioural drivers of price, the greater the range of options you can create. Scary when you think about it, as they are all being used on us every day.

 

The final word should go to Warren Buffett, someone who knows a bit about making a profit.

The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you have the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you have a very good business. If you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10% then you have a terrible business’.

 

What is the most universal and useful management tool of all?

What is the most universal and useful management tool of all?

Easy question. ‘5 whys’.

5 Whys was first articulated by Toyota’s architect of the TPS, Taiichi Ohno in the 50’s, but it was not new.

Anyone who has had children has been on the receiving end of a form of the ‘5 whys’ from about two and a half years old, to 6 or 7, by which time they have learnt  that the question is not always appreciated or answered fully, so they stop asking.

The process is deceptively  simple, keep asking ‘Why’ until you get to the root cause of the problem, well past the symptoms, so it can be fixed, and the problem not recur.

In a previous life managing a manufacturing business, we had a recurring problem with an automatic box erector that seemed intractable despite huge efforts. The whole line stopped every time the erector spat the dummy, causing serious production losses.

While it took months to find the right cause, after chasing a lot of rabbits down holes, we finally nailed it using 5 why.

  1. Why did the erector jam?

One of the arms was out of alignment to the flat box

  1. Why was the arm out of alignment?

One of the flat box ends was slightly crooked

  1. Why was the box end crooked?

The box end was slightly out of specification

  1. Why was the box end out of specification?

The purchasing manager had changed suppliers for a significant saving, and the new suppliers actual operational control allowed variations outside the erectors demanding requirements,  resulting in an occasional  mechanised  ‘dummy-spit’.

This example in fact only took us ‘4 whys,’ but the trick was to ask the right questions  in the first place, in the right sequence. This took us several months and cost a huge amount in lost production, and maintenance resources as we eliminated possible causes of the problem before anyone thought to examine if a 1 mm variation outside the spec of the flat box size was significant.

Once identified that it was, the problem was quickly fixed by moving back to the previous supplier with whom we had encountered  no problems.

Subsequently, we evolved a process that used 5 whys as a matter of course in search of improvements in the factory, and later, admin processes, and found that our problem resolution times dropped dramatically.

The process is pretty simple, just challenging to implement:

  • Institute a ‘5 whys’ meeting in response to a problem.
  • Invite (read insist) everyone involved and/or affected by the problem to attend the meeting.
  • Agree a ‘chairman’ for the problem who will take overall responsibility.
  • Proceed to ask ‘Why’ until you get to the root cause of the issue. It almost never takes more than 5 ‘whys’ hence the name. This step can take time and often takes several meetings as possible answers to the ‘why’ are considered.
  • Assign responsibility to install, test and validate the solution
  • Document and disseminate the solution which has been broken into a written process to ensure compliance, or easier further investigation should a similar problem arise.

The whole objective is to get to the root cause of  the problem, a process that is applicable not just in industry, but in your life, when you think about it.

 

 

 

Diagram courtesy Mindtools.com

How do you solve a critical problem?

How do you solve a critical problem?

Define the problem first!

Dealing with problems effectively requires that  you first define the problem. This sounds pretty obvious, so obvious in fact that many do not think about it, they just persist with workarounds that address the symptoms, without getting to the core of the problem to solve it.

Not all problems are the same, so logically, they will not all have the same solution.

Classifying them in some way is a good first step, so here are four suggestions.

The ‘Cock-up’ Box.

Something or someone has acted in a way that is inconsistent with normal. There has been a cock-up. It could be a machine broke down unexpectedly, a customer delivery does not arrive, or a key component of a marketing program is missing, and many others. Point is, it is abnormal, so go looking for the root cause of the abnormality. ‘5 Why’ normally works very well in these circumstances.

The ‘Poor Process’ box.

The outcomes of a process done regularly seems to vary each time it is done, there is no reliable standard. The level of reliability is such that someone has to check or rework what has been done. I had a client whose MD routinely checked the detail of quotes done by his staff, looking for the errors he knew they were making, which he corrected, without taking any further action. Unless the process that enables errors of this type to be made is addressed, the problems will persist. Mapping what happens always helps to identify the ‘holes’. In this case, I ‘attached’ myself to a couple of quotes from the point they were initially received, mapping  the action taken, by whom, when, and what was the trigger, and created a ‘map’ of the process. It was then obvious to all where the causes of the variations occurred, and steps were taken to remove them. The result was a much greater level of confidence in the accuracy of the quotation process, which freed up a significant chunk of the MD’s  time to do more useful things.

The ‘Get Better’ box.

This often looks like the one above, but the motivation is different, it is often the result of an external pressure, resulting in a previously acceptable level of performance no  longer being acceptable. The typical examples are cycle times of all sorts of things being shortened, from order to delivery time, design time, response time, to improving the quality, however that is defined. In Australia, the example on everyone’s mind is the management of power. Costs have gone through the roof, and suddenly shaving a percent off the power bills here and there becomes an item of considerable priority, so effort is going into tracking and addressing all points of power consumption that can be modified to cost less, or be eliminated.

The ‘Out of the Box’ box.

As the name implies, this is where the ideas to address the emerging challenges are addressed. These are  innovations that you can either implement yourself, or responses to the trends observed that require big change. Having an established process to deal with and leverage innovation, significant improvements, unexpected situations, and opportunities that become apparent, is challenging. What it requires is a continuous focus on strategy and the long term vision, mission, purpose, whatever terms you use in your business. These things are way too easy to stick in the ‘too hard basket’ or the ‘will do it tomorrow’ basket, in the knowledge that tomorrow never comes without another short term crisis to address.

When you need assistance defining, then categorising the problems you face before developing solutions, give me a call.