Mad Men have morphed into Math Men

Mad Men have morphed into Math Men

Don Draper would be really pissed, his world has changed. His brand of advertising is as dated as the Model T.

Instead of having hundreds of creatively driven ad agencies, all competing aggressively for your business, which involved selling you on a creative product then cashing in from media placement commissions, we have a few global corporate agencies driven by accountants, chucking money at Google and Facebook who between them   have the GDP of France.

So much for media diversity and creativity.

Marketers have since time began tried to moderate risk and increase the productivity of their investments, by better targeting their ideal customer.

Facebook, Google, and Amazon have an immense data bank to use to target customers. Every time someone likes a Facebook post, tags a photo, expresses an opinion, shares an Instagram photo, or sends a WhatsApp message, Facebook adds it to the dossier they have on you. Google does the same thing, and better yet, Amazon actually knows not just what you looked at, liked, and shared, but what you bought, when, for how much, and where it was delivered.

All this is data, mountains of it, ready to be mined for profit, and to hell with privacy.

We have given our privacy away to the global wholesalers of eyeballs. It makes such a farce of the current ‘debate’ about the privacy of health records happening in Australia. Who cares if your doctor can log into a (relatively) secure database to check if you have an allergy, herpes, or are pregnant, she/he can probably find out by checking in on Facebook!

When I was a kid, we used second hand, historical data to try and target demographic groups of potential customers. Now you can track who they are, where they live, what they browse and buy, what interests them, and what they ignore, and how they engage with others, by mining the data.

The change has happened at breakneck speed, and has a long way to go yet, but it is clear that the data scientists rule, and are consolidating their hold on power.

Question is, do we really want these data nerds, exemplified by the ‘Zuk’ to rule the world?

It certainly has taken some of the fun out of marketing.

 

 

 

 

 

Mary Meeker 2018 KPC&B Internet trends report

Mary Meeker 2018 KPC&B Internet trends report

 

The 2018 KPC&B report is now out, and gathering views on Slideshare like a runaway train.  The amount and speed of the attention given to this now annual report is evidence that it has become the benchmark for analysis of the digital communication trends that we live with every day, but do not necessarily see.

The report has become one of the most influential pieces of content published, and it is a monster!

While I have no intention of trying to summarise, a few  things just jump out.

  • While growth of the net may be slowing, at a reach now above 50% of the worlds population, what would you expect. Within that total reach, US platforms remain the global giants, but being hunted by the Chinese who are spreading out of home base where they utterly dominate to the rest of the world.
  • Buying via the net, so called ‘e-commerce’ is now so deeply entrenched, that it is now just another part of ‘commerce’. Amazon outside China dominates, and is also dominating in R&D spend, translating into an avalanch of innovation. Inside China, it is a very different picture. The Chinese platforms are all there is, and are in the early stages of going after an international presence. It seems that the Chinese have jumped the hard asset stage in the development of communication and payment systems, going straight to mobile.  No legacy questions of any type to be negotiated, which can only accelerate the potential rate of growth.
  • Ad spending on mobile is now more than half digital ad spending. The implication of this is the degree to which the ads will evolve rapidly towards highly personalised messages, when combined with AI and geo location.
  • Of particular interest to Australian FMCG retail, is slide 108 which shows the price and market share changes in the top 20 US grocery retailers. We have the top two gorillas here still retaining above 70% market share, not the 20% that Walmart holds in the US as the gorilla brand. If the US experience is mirrored here, and I see no reason why it will not, the message would be a ‘sell’ on Coles and Woolies shares. Not a happy thought for either as they must be contemplating large investments just to remain in the game, let alone retain their current position.
  • The nature of work continues to evolve way faster than our capacity to absorb the changes. I suspect the social dislocation that will result in this country are only just beginning to be felt.
  • There is plenty of data coming at us that tells us video is the new big guy in town. This report confirms it, again.

This report is required reading and deep consideration, for anyone thinking about digital, and the shape of the world we will be living in, and isn’t that all of us?

 

How ‘Systems Thinking’ should be applied to marketing and governance.

How ‘Systems Thinking’ should be applied to marketing and governance.

We think about marketing reasonably often in business, not often enough, but reasonably often.

However, our thinking is usually muddled, and wrong.

Let me explain.

We think about marketing as if it was a discreet set of actions that can change the fortunes of a business.

The ‘marketing function’ sits alongside sales, production, finance, IT, and the other functional units in a business, that collectively build the success of the business.

Problem is we all see the whole as the sum of its parts, not as an interdependent and related system that is more than the sum of its parts.

Take an engine out of a car, and leave it on the ground. No matter how good the engine, it cannot move itself. It is utterly dependent on the interaction of the other parts of the car to be mobile.

Take the best bits of a range of cars, the BMW engine, Mercedes gearbox, Lotus suspension, Ferrari body shape, the best of the best, and put them together. Logically with all the best bits you will get a superior end result.

Rubbish.

The bits do not fit together in any coherent manner. Individually they may be the best of the best, but together they are little  more than a box of parts.

The whole system is what counts, designing the system from the outside in, not from the inside out.

For some years now I have been referring to the marketing and sales functions together as one function: ‘Revenue Generation’.

While this is better than  the artificial separation into sales and marketing, it is still way short of a system necessary to generate a profit, as that requires the processes that develop, produce and deliver the product to be a part of the system.

We all solve problems from within our own disciplines, that is the way we are trained. We are trained to see a situation from within the confines of the discipline, not from the outside from where we can touch, feel, and see the context.

Outsiders are always better able to see the size and shape of a building than those sitting inside it. Exactly the same as having a knowledgeable and constructively critical thought leader who sits outside your business, looking at the competitive, regulatory  and strategic context in which the business competes for a living.

This was supposed to be the function of a board, outside experts reflecting on the sum of the parts rather than the individual parts, developing strategy to build success for the long term, and seeking optimisation of the assets deployed. Often we seem to fail at that as well, as the outsiders get caught up in the complication and protection of the status quo, and their own position in it, forgetting why they are there in the first place. You only have to observe a little bit of the current Financial Services Royal Commission to see plenty of evidence of that.

 

Is the supermarket business model about to be retired?

Is the supermarket business model about to be retired?

 

The face of the supermarket in the 2030’s is emerging, and I suspect it is not a face most of us will warm to immediately. The combination of artificial intelligence and the capacity to automate just about everything will render much of the current supermarket  business model  obsolete.

The model of Amazon Go and Chinese Hema supermarkets will apply particularly to convenience stores, in high traffic high rent areas, like the inner city and business centres. Our grocery shopping will be done on line by voice, and delivered by some amalgam of autonomous vehicle,  Amazon, Ocado, or delivery services like FedEx, Uber and others that will spring up, which will hook up with the owners of the automated Pick ‘n Pack warehouses.

Amazon Alexa and other technology deploying voice ordering ensures a limitation of options, to those that favour the seller. With voice, we get the convenience of ordering from the couch, but in exchange we give up the visual cues of a store where we usually have several options, with differing characteristics and price points, and the resulting capacity of marketers to hang their hats on a point of differentiation to a group of consumers, a niche in the market. Voice removes all that, and will offer you only the one or two that the seller recommends, but their recommendations will be based on their commercial objectives, revenue, margin, and stock rotation, not yours, which are likely to be entirely different.

The recently announced deal between Ocado and Kroger adds a whole new dimension. Ocado is the first entirely e-commerce grocery business that I am aware of, to have leveraged themselves into a controlling position, and it took a while. Like all on line supermarkets, it struggled with fresh produce, and the higher customer acquisition costs that  are the result of having no physical shops. Ocado launched in 2000, went public in 2010, but did not turn a profit until  2014, a modest 7 million quid on a turnover of a billion. The logic appears to be developing and licencing their technology, but little happened  beyond the deal with the John Lewis owned Waitrose until Amazon bought Whole Foods in August 2017, which jump-started a rush into the technology to automate order receipt, pick, pack, and delivery.  Suddenly everyone was chasing them, and in November 2017 a deal was struck with Casino in France, and talks with others advanced quickly, culminating with the Kroger deal.

Kroger is deeply threatened by the Whole foods purchase by Amazon, and while Wal-Mart dominates US grocery, Kroger is a strong second, but has not had a viable on line offering. The potential for Amazon to convert some or all of Whole Foods sites into local delivery warehouses seems pretty real to me, which would give the relatively low on line grocery share in the US (estimated at 1.5% Vs 7.5% in the UK) a real kick along, and potentially add Kroger to the conga line of US retailers heading for the liquidator.  From Ocado’s perspective, the deal offers access to the biggest grocery market in the world for their technology, and led to a share price jump that will be making patient investors reach for the bubbly.

If we think that here in Australia we are insulated from all this, we are in la la land. While the distances here add to the complication, it is a predictable number, and therefore manageable by algorithm. I predict that one or both of the gorillas will be on a plane to talk to Ocado very quickly, if they have not already, although Coles might be pre-occupied with moving out of home, and resetting up in their own digs. Wesfarmers have been badly burnt by the Bunnings foray into the UK, brought to an embarrassing end last week by the sale of the former Homebase business for 1 pound, and would I suspect be wary of supporting an investment of this type for a departing problem child. It might just be an ideal time for Woolies to get a jump on them?

4 questions to enable you to extract maximum leverage from your marketing investment

4 questions to enable you to extract maximum leverage from your marketing investment

Imagine you are faced with the task of joining two pieces of wood.

What information are you likely to need before deciding how to go about the task?

How big and important are the pieces? Are they structural weight bearing? Is the joint going to be seen? And so on.

So: you have the information; you can then decide how you go about the joining.  Do you nail? Screw? Glue? Combine rebate glue and screw? Countersink the screw? And so on. You have many options, but without the contextual information, you cannot make an informed decision that will give you the best outcome.

Sometimes this is easy, instantaneous, other times it will require more time and research to get the right answer.

Figuring out your marketing programs is no different.

How are you going to allocate your limited resources across all the possibilities that face you?

Marketing has only one purpose, to generate revenue. Sometimes it is revenue today. Sometimes tomorrow, next month, next year, next decade. If you cannot see a connection between the marketing activity and future revenue, stop now!

 The challenge is to know enough to ask informed and intelligent questions, and be able to separate the bullshit from the good answers.

This ‘marketing game’ is full of sellers of new shiny toys that are ‘guaranteed’ to be the answer to all your commercial problems, delivering you rivers of cash.

In order to help you separate the bullshit from the reality, there are four tools you can use to do the separation, which will assist you too see the connections to revenue.

They all are interdependent, none by themselves is of great value, and together they are a powerful way of thinking about your business.

The 4 seem simple at first glance, but in reality very complex questions, that in combination will give you the beginnings of an answer. The rest will come with experience and domain knowledge.

  • What problem can I solve for a potential customer, or put another way, how do I add value?
  • Who is my ideal customer?
  • How do I apply maximum marketing leverage?
  • How do I make a profit?

 

When you have the answer to these four questions, you are ready to spend some money.

Not before.

However, once answered, it is never enough to stand still and think the answers tomorrow will be the same as today, and that the answer today is the ideal one. Business is iterative, you learn from doing, experimenting, doing it better next time. It is an evolutionary process, so long as you are careful not to bet the farm on a dud horse. These are all connected to each other, one without the other is of less value, and the impact of answering them all well is not just cumulative, it is compounding.

There is never one right answer, the interdependencies are huge, as are the options, it is all incremental, a process of improvement and no good answer remains the best one forever.

These four factors, and all the lesser things that hang off them, are compounding.

The twist is that they also compound in reverse, so you have to be prepared to try things, but get them off the table quickly when they do not work.

 

A little detail on the 4 questions.

What problem can I solve?

Unless you can solve a problem for someone why would they buy from you?

Albert Einstein, my senior marketing guru, said, amongst other things, “If I had an hour to solve a life defining problem, I would spend the first 50 minutes defining the problem, the rest is just maths’

So, do your research before you jump in.

The definition of how you solve the problem becomes your value proposition. In other words, how does what you do add value to the lives of those ideal customers?

If you cannot articulate that, you have nothing except price, and nobody wins a price war.

The solutions to problems come from being able to ask the right questions.

Seeing things others do not see, solving problems better than others, and sometimes seeing a potential problem before it is an acknowledged problem, highlighting it, and then solving it.

The classic case is the iPod. It was not the first MP3 player, and arguably it was not the best technically, but it did something no other mP3 player did. It put ‘1000 songs in your pocket’.  It articulated the problem that the product solved.

While others all talked about their technical superiority, the stuff the geeks thought was important, Apple just told us what consumer problem they solved.

Who is my ideal customer?

Who is your ideal customer, the one who will not haggle the price, who loves the product you sell, and proselytises for you? Knowing that person in great detail would be marketing and commercial gold.

Like all gold, it is hard to find, subject to all sorts of distractions and false starts, but immensely valuable when discovered, and discovery is usually incremental, rather than a ‘eureka’ moment. This means it is also a demanding challenge.

What is often also forgotten in the effort to define that ideal customer is that every customer also has an ideal supplier, one who meets all their needs, delivering value in excess of the cost to them. It is a two way street, and a relationship only prospers where there is value being delivered to both parties.

Defining your ideal customer is an iterative process, deceptively demanding, as it requires choices about who is not an ideal customer, and therefore excluded from primary consideration. Choices like this are challenging, but necessary, particularly for small and medium businesses which do not have the luxury of a big pot of marketing money, you have to get it right or waste limited resources.

Following is a list of 6 parameters you can use. Not all will be equally applicable in every situation, but it will pay to give each deep consideration.

Who: Is the demographics they may exhibit. Where they live, age, gender, education, job, and all the other quantitative characteristics that are available. These parameters are pretty much all that was easily available in any detail until digital tools came along.

What: are their behaviours. Do they go to the opera or rock concerts, perhaps both, do  they travel overseas for holidays, what sort of causes, if any, do they support, are they likely to demonstrate their beliefs publicly, or are they just internal. All the sorts of things that offer a picture of how they think, feel, and behave in all sorts of situations.

Where: will you find them digitally, as well as in the analogue (perhaps real) world, and what means can you use to make a connection. Are they likely to be avid users of Facebook, LinkedIn or other social platforms, are they comfortable buying on line, do they ‘showroom’ digitally then visit the physical retailer, do they get their news from Facebook and Reddit, or more focused news sites, or even, surprise, surprise, newspapers, radio and magazines.

When: will they be ready to buy? Customers are rarely ready to buy when you are ready to sell. Understanding the customer buying cycles, particularly in B2B and a larger purchase is critical.

Why: should they respond to your entreaties, to do whatever it is you are asking of them. What is your value proposition to them? What promise of a new and better tomorrow can you deliver? What can you deliver that is different and more valuable to them than any alternative? If you cannot answer these questions, it will come down to price, and winning a price war is a great way to go broke.

How: will you service the transaction, and the subsequent relationship that may emerge? This is usually down to questions about your business model and the ‘fit’ that has with the customer.

 

How do I make a profit?

Just as a successful young single male professional might opt for a red sports car, when 10 years later, with a family, kids, soccer practise, he might opt for a brick on wheels, you can have different business models to suit different circumstances and conditions.

Most small and medium businesses with which I have been associated give little if any thought to the business model, but it is of critical importance.

Are you retail, wholesale, franchised, subscription, digital, or some combination? All are different, working in differing ways, to allocate and absorb the costs and benefits that accrue. Being very clear about your business model, and being able to anticipate if a potential customer will fit is in some circumstances, a vital component of making a profit.

 

How and where do I apply Maximum Marketing Leverage?

Identifying the point at which you can apply Maximum Marketing Leverage (MML), or in other words, get the most productivity from your marketing investment is the point at which the previous three questions intersect.

Answering the three questions well requires a combination of introspection on your business, in combination with exospection, the examination of your business from an external perspective. The point where these two perspectives intersect is the best spot to apply marketing leverage.

Most will be familiar with the SWOT model of business analysis; this is one of many, and perhaps simplest of the many ‘Mental Models’ you can use to do the examination.  Porters 5 forces, Balanced Scorecard, BC matrix, Business Model Canvas, and many others are alternatives. All have their pros and cons, but the key point is that you give due consideration to them, as they will identify and clarify your point of MML.

The ‘maths’

All that has gone before, in Albert’s language, is the definition of the problem. Now we get to the maths, the way in which you apply the leverage.

Most small businesses rush straight to the tools of leverage without due consideration of the nature of the problem they want the tools to solve. However, once defined, pick a tool, or most often a combination of tools that best fits your point of leverage and apply them, recognising that there is no formula to give you thee exactly right answer, so you need to experiment  to find the best outcomes. The process of experimenting, will also give greater clarity to the 4 questions, which will in turn clarify the point of MML.

The choices you face are multitudinous.

Digital, analogue, which social platform, how much should be spent on Adwords, does Facebook work, how to use the automation tools available, what about email, letterbox drops, and so on, and on, and on. 20 years ago, life was much simpler, there were few choices, but there was also very few of the tools available that enabled the identification of the point of MML, so experimenting was far more costly and risky than it is now, to  the point where small businesses had very few options. Now you have plenty, the challenge is to use them in the best possible manner.

However, there are three things you should always remember, and apply.

  • Customers and potential customers move through a decision making process every time before they put their hands in their pockets. Sometimes this is almost instantaneous, as it would be in a supermarket doing the weekly shop, much of it is on ‘auto-pilot’. By contrast when buying a new car, house, or even considering a restaurant, the decision is usually much more considered, research is done, options considered, a short list compiled before a decision is make. This process happens in many ways, and can be influenced by the marketer using different tools, and combinations of tools at different times in the process.
  • The tools themselves are only as good as the message that is delivered. Whether you are writing an ad for the local newspaper or sending a series of emails to your prospect list, you need to be able to write and design a piece of communication that will engage the reader, give them the information they are looking for at that specific time, and lead them to the next point in the purchase process. In other words, in the vernacular, you need to be able to produce a variety of ‘content’
  • The one tool that should be in every toolbox is your own website. This is your digital home, the spot you own, from which you can communicate with your ideal customer under your terms. The trick of course is to have a website that accurately reflects the answers to the four questions and directs the tools to the point of MML. Most SME’s recognise the need for a website, and either lack the skills to do it themselves, or get a contractor to do it, usually without reference to the 4 questions. Then you end up with a nice looking but not revenue effective website. It is a vital but challenging tool to get right.

A few final but general points about running a successful SME, that are nevertheless vital but rarely  get enough attention.

  • Referrals are the best and cheapest form of marketing; it just takes time and effort to get to the point where current customers will refer you to others. Get this right, and many of your marketing problems will be solved, so it makes sense to have a formal referral process in place.
  • You must understand your ‘numbers’. The accounts, Cash flow forecasts, revenue, cost and customer analysis and forecasts. The Pareto principal, well known as the 80/20 rule applies in every circumstance. Sometimes it is 90/10, rarely is it 70/30.
  • Marketing cannot be left to the last minute, it is absolutely essential you identify your MML before you start spending your limited resources.
  • Social media is not free, despite the rumours, it costs not only in time and effort, as well as design costs to be effective, the quid pro quo is that you give over a heap of personal information that the social platforms then use to market to advertisers. There are no silver bullets in the quest for success.