How to apply logic to the development of KPI’s

How to apply logic to the development of KPI’s

Mar 12, 2018 | Governance, Leadership, Management

‘If it matters, measure it’

There are many variations in that old saying, but it holds true. How therefore do we end up with hundreds of measures that seem not to matter?

Fear.

Fear of missing a measure that does matter, so we create metrics for every-bloody-thing to ensure that we do not miss one.

That is crap management.

Let’s think about measuring stuff that does matter, and then measuring it at the point where the decisions and actions that influence the outcome are made. This is tying cause and effect together at the point where they intersect, not looking at a range of data and wondering what happened to cause that!

How do we define what matters?

To me it is simple, if it moves the performance indicator, it matters. Clearly, the converse is also true.

Ask yourself, does the number of Facebook likes you have impact your profitability? If it does not, and I would contend it never does, so why use it as a KPI? It is simply a readily available metric that has no relevance to performance. It is what those ‘likers’ do with your information that counts, much harder to define and measure, but if you understand that, and the cause/effect chains, it just might move the performance needle and become a KPI worth measuring.

In short, behaviour determines the outcomes, so set out to measure the behaviours you need to deliver the performance you are looking for, not the other way around.

How do we measure what matters?

A measure without a target is not of much value, as we cannot see if any movement is relevant to performance. A measure should articulate the performance against which we need to move the performance needle in a strategically significant manner. This setting of targets is challenging if we do it properly. Applying a 3% increase in last year’s performance is not doing it properly, it is just extrapolating, accepting that history will repeat itself.

To measure properly, we need to consider the factors at work that will influence performance, seeking the causes, and measuring them, not just glancing at the metrics and having no idea of whether or not any movement is significant. Holy cow Batman, we just got another 5,000 likes on the Facebook page. Wow! But so what?

A further caution. ‘Sandbagging’ so called KPI’s is common in situations where there is little strategic linkage, and analysis of flow on impact. Two examples. Sales people when incentivised only by a target will be tempted to keep the targets as low as possible in order to achieve their bonuses.  Who has not seen that? Purchasing people incentivised only by purchase price will not care too much about the performance of the cheaper version they opt for, which in the factory, may corrupt the efficiency numbers, and have a far greater financial impact than the saving of a few bob on the initial purchase price.

Do not focus on averages.

Too many times I see piles of measures, taken at a high level, so that they reflect the average of a whole lot of other factors. If I have one foot in an ice bucket, and the other in the fire, on average the temperature of my feet is about right.

Nonsense.

Measure the outliers, the things that are unseen in averages in order to better manage them. For a KPI to be meaningful, it has to influence the outcome. Removing one foot from the fire will influence the average, but if I have not realised that the effect is caused by the removal of the foot in fire, I will at some point put my foot back in the fire.

I do not remember much from the statistics I did 45 years ago at university, but one of the ideas I do remember is that of standard deviation.  I recall little of the mathematical gobbledy Gook and probably do not need to any longer, as the formula is in Excel, just fill in the boxes, but I do remember what it means. (Forgive the pun).

In the normal distribution curve we are all familiar with, 68% of outcomes are within one standard deviation of the mean. These can reasonably be classified as an ‘expected’ result, given that forecasting is not an exact science, it is just a best informed guess, and the level of ‘informed’ varies hugely, depending on who has their mouth open at any one time.  95% of outcomes fall in the range of 2 standard deviations, and 99.7% fall in the range of three standard deviations. This is commonly called the ‘Rule of 68’

A focus on the unexpected, the outliers, will give you far greater leverage on the outcomes than a focus on the averages, or expected. It might lead to taking one foot out of the fire, and understanding that this is what has caused the increase in the comfort level.

 

 

 

 

 

Defining the outliers, like most things in life, can be made easier by imagery. A core piece of process improvement is defining the levels of variability, and then seeking to understand the causes of that variability. A visual way of communicating this is a performance graph that includes what you define as the limits of the variability you would consider to be ‘normal’. Commonly this is called a ‘statistical control chart’, and includes the upper and lower limits of what can be expected. Anything outside these limits needs to be investigated.

Anything inside the control limits is by definition, ‘normal’ and therefore not necessary to spend a lot of time considering. What however is worth great consideration is determining what the control limits are, where the normal becomes abnormal, which is where action must be taken. Over time, in an improvement process, the control limits will be progressively tightened as the outliers are progressively understood, so they become part of the normal, or eliminated.

 Cascade the KPI responsibility

Having any more than 6 or 7 KPI’s to manage creates a situation where we skate over the top, not able to devote the time and energy to improving the things that matter, that move the performance needle. The things that really matter will be different at each level, and in each part of the enterprise.  Therefore, constructing KPI’s relevant to each role should be a core part of the process of managing the resources of the enterprise, and especially in encouraging the behaviour we want  that will collectively, move the performance needle. Within each functional area, there will be a cascade of KPI’s that together add up to the 6 or 7 KPI’s to which the functional manager is held accountable. This is not to forget that the processes we are measuring are very often cross functional, and ignoring those cause and effect chains leads to sub optimal performance as in the purchasing/operations example noted earlier. This can be addressed by ensuring that the purchasing manager has a KPI that involves operational efficiency in the measurement.

Use the narrative in reporting.

A dashboard of a few easily understood performance indicators is terrific, it tells you what has happened, but lacks two vital pieces of information: Why it is happening in this way, and what should be done about it.

Narrative is the best way to communicate these vital factors, the core of great management, indeed, leadership. Knowing clearly what is happening is step 1, steps 2 and 3 are what make the difference between the companies that struggle to survive and those that prosper and grow. Illustrating these narratives with graphical KPI movements over time is a powerful way to illustrate the impact of performance at any level.

 

Credit Wikipedia: Rule of 68-95-99.7.

Header credit: Hugh McLeod Gaping void

 

The rise and rise of the digital milkman

The rise and rise of the digital milkman

Mar 8, 2018 | Change, Marketing, retail

The retail gorillas, Coles and Woolworths may still have 75% of grocery market share, but they are in the gunsights of a horde of hunters, all using new fangled weapons developed from the base of ‘Digital’ in a myriad of ways.

Meanwhile. The gorillas are acting like frogs, quietly doing backstroke across the pan, and back again, as the digital hunters pile wood onto the stove. They do have some digital services, order and delivery, order and pick up, but all suffer from the disease that eventually killed Thomas Dux, they are an offshoot of the current model, not an experiment  designed from the ground up to disrupt and destroy the current model.

In the future, the business model we are all used to, the suburban or mall based supermarket carrying anything from 1,000 Sku’s as does Aldi, up to 12-20,000 as do the biggest Coles and Woollies stores will decline significantly in importance. In the future, the  supermarket as we see them currently will be a much smaller part of the revenue pie, for a number of reasons:

  • Cost of entry is reducing. Cost of entry into FMCG has been, and will be further, eroded. From global sourcing from low cost non proprietary manufacturers, to the ability to cut out the retailers with direct to customer channels. These days, all you need is an idea, a little working capital and youtube channel. This may be a radical over-simplification, but there are now products and brands we have never heard of that are selling successfully using this direct model. There have been some notable successes, like Dollar Shave club, a 2012 start-up recently sold for a billion dollars to Unilever, after becoming the second largest shaver brand in the US. No supermarkets. I have read commentary that a $billion hugely over values the purchase, but given it gives Unilever an entry point into a category where they had no offerings, that is adjacent to their mens grooming and personal care business, it makes a lot of sense. Similarly, Procter and Gamble, not known for knee jerk marketing, is trialling a laundry pick-up and delivery service branded ‘Tide Spin’ in Chicago,  and is experimenting with Amazon Prime, and IoT  again using the Tide
  • Availability is the new benchmark. The gorillas have up to 20,000 SKU’s on their books, most individual outlets will not have more than 10,000 on shelf, available, after local conditions are accommodated. Digital retailers have hundreds of thousands of options, all available within a very short time. If you need it right now, immediately, go to the local store, and if they have it, so can you, but if you can wait a day, you can have whatever you want delivered. It seems to me a that consumers are prepared to pay a premium for convenience, simply an anagram (almost) of ‘Availability’.
  • Customer loyalty is dead. Loyalty to a channel, and individual retailers in the channel has been eroded terminally by the range of purchase options opening up. Coles and Woolies compete on price, and parking, only two of a wide range of options consumers now have available to them to determine ‘Value’  of a purchase channel.

 

The complication for digital ‘mass grocery’ has been that challenging ‘last mile’. How do you get the products to the consumers efficiently, and cost effectively. It can work pretty well for high value dry goods, perishables present  their own particular problems nobody has solved yet. Indeed, Aussie Farmers Direct, one of the groups that seemed to have survived the start-up phase, and had built a customer base and presumably processes to manage customer relationships went into administration on Monday, March 5, citing competition from the supermarket chains as the reason.

However, autonomous everything powered by data will deliver us models that work, just as Uber cracked the taxi industry, and is now moving into home delivery for restaurants with UberEats, Supermarkets are an easy next step.

As I reflect on my commercial history, part of it was in the dairy industry, where there were milkmen calling on pretty much every suburban home every day. There was a ‘Depot’ system covering the country, and every milk company tried hard to get the ‘milkos’ to deliver more than just milk. After all, they were there anyway, so the marginal cost was low. Hindsight, and we knew it at the time, tells me that the communication and payments systems were not up to the job 30 years ago.

They are  now, so I predict the return of the ‘Milko’ just the digitally enhanced model. Pity the dairy companies all took the short term view and flogged off all that real estate with the depots on them!

Photo credit: Ben Watkin Via Flikr.

7 tips on  how not to be boring while presenting.

7 tips on  how not to be boring while presenting.

Mar 6, 2018 | Communication, Marketing, Small business

As small business owners, we are often called on to speak publicly, and like most people, find that intimidating, and for some uncomfortable to the point of nausea.

There are many pieces of advice on how to structure a presentation, thousands of them on the web, and a few contributions from this site, but little about ‘how’ to speak beyond the very good advice on body language.

For most the degree of discomfort is brought on by fear.

Fear of making a dill of yourself

Fear of forgetting the important bits

Fear of boring your audience.

All can be addressed using a few simple things, that will not remove the instinctive fear of being the one outside the herd that in evolutionary times became a tigers breakfast, but at least will give you a few tools to beat the beast off.

Do not repeat to them what they already know.

Most speakers just repeat lots of stuff in the public domain, things most already know, or they pimp their companies and products.

Both are as boring as batshit.

You have been given the privilege of controlling the time of others, and the status of expert by whoever is organising the event you are speaking at, do not waste it by repeating boring stuff. Even if all you do is reverse the usually quoted factoids, and adding a bit, it will be more interesting. For example, instead of just stating ‘8% of transactions are now carried out ‘on line’,  say ‘while 92% of transactions are still carried out in person,  75% of purchasers do extensive research on line before you see them in the shop. How should that impact on your marketing strategies?’

Do not speak about things where you have only superficial knowledge.

Tempting as it is for some of us to speak at the opening of an envelope, resist the temptation unless you can genuinely impart some relevant and useful knowledge to the audience. Knowing you have valuable information that others will benefit from makes the process of imparting it that much easier.

Do not read to them what they can see.

Reading slides back to an audience is an absolutely sure fire way to ensure they all dive for their phones to check the Facebook update or what their  mother in law is doing for dinner. I cannot believe how often I see this, we have all seen it, yet  many allow themselves to knowingly bore the pants off the audience by doing it themselves. It is simply a response to fear, we can wrap ourselves in a sheet that excludes others, removing the presentation obligation to ‘connect’ with the audience.

PowerPoint has destroyed our instinct to be interesting when we speak, to hold the audience’s attention.

Resist the siren song of PowerPoint. When you use it, which is in most cases, always use it as no more than a memory jogger and to keep you moving along to a plan by having no more than a couple of words on a slide, but using it as a way to communicate in simple graphic manner the point that you are currently making. If you cannot condense that part of the discussion to a single graphical representation, remove the whole thing.

Do not just give them your opinion.

An expert speaker always has a point of view, but to be truly persuasive, that point of view will be based on solid facts, research, and data. Deliver that data, while articulating how you used it to form the views you have. Demonstrate the links between cause and effect. Failure to do this effectively is a large part of why we no longer trust politicians. While they are often slick talkers, they just give us opinions, and mostly we know they are not their private opinions, just the convenient line of the day, without any foundation of relevant fact and cause and effect links.

Do not stand still.

Particularly, do  not stand still behind a lectern.  When speaking, the stage is your domain, dominate it by moving around, using it to make your points, engage with the audience, match your voice to the point you are making, and be interesting physically. Back to evolutionary psychology, the tiger will have less chance at breakfast if the target is moving, so  move!

Do not just recite, tell stories.

Imagine your audience is one of your kids to whom you are telling a bed-time story, and you want more than anything for it to be memorable for them. To be memorable, every story has a structure. A beginning, an end, and a middle bit, drama, tension,  villains, heroes, laughter and sadness, suspense, and a point that you are trying to make. Use as many of them as possible in your presentation, with particular attention to the point to be made.

Do not end with thank you for coming.

You have been given the status of expert, someone worth listening to, by whoever has organised the gathering. Do not surrender that status by thanking the audience for all being there, for their attention. Instead, demonstrate why the investment of their time has been worthwhile, by telling them what to do next.

When you manage all that, I guarantee that not only will you have been of benefit to the audience, you will probably have enjoyed the experience, at least just a bit, and you will be better for the practice next  time.

 

11 practises to build a performance culture.

11 practises to build a performance culture.

Mar 1, 2018 | Governance, Leadership

Managing personnel KPI’s, performance reviews by another name, are one of the most intimidating and easy to put off tasks most managers have.

Having recently written about behaviours delivering KPI’s rather than the other way around, it may be useful to do a quick audit of your own practises, and that of your employers.

If you want to shape behaviour, you need to communicate, and more importantly, display the behaviours before they will be taken up by others in the organisation.

This is a crucially important aspect of every person in a position to manage the output of others.

In  no particular order, following are some of the things I  have observed over the years that impact positively in behaviour, and clearly the converse is also true, their absence is telling.

Start from the beginning.

The first thing a new employee should understand is the behaviour that is required, and the connections these have to the KPI’s. Start as you want to continue, as someone who is willing and able to assist the new employee to learn, and contribute to the organisation. So often I see new employees disheartened by the reality of a new job not matching the rosy descriptions given during interviews. This is a bad mistake.

Feedback is a two way street.

Recognise that giving feedback is delicate, and is also a two way street. Positively managing the performance of other people requires a relationship, and no relationship can exist without some give and take. Every employee has expectations of their boss, so you should also ensure they have the opportunity in the conversations about performance to give you feedback. When this happens as a matter of course, as a part of natural conversation, it is a really healthy sign.

Responsibility and credit.

Taking responsibility for the failures around you, but giving credit where credit is due, publicly, is one of the most powerful motivators I have seen. It builds respect, and importantly also builds a well of goodwill amongst those around you, as well as from those reporting to you.

Feedback should be cultural.

Make performance feedback part of the culture. It should not be a once or twice a year conversation,  but an ongoing part of the discourse. This is not an easy part of being a manager, it means you need to be thinking of others all the time, rather than concentrating on yourself.  Have a look through the terrific Netflix culture doc, it is a very useful guide from a business that has managed exponential growth while disrupting established marketers, and building what appears to be a great place to work. Clearly, they know something about performance management and culture that the rest of us can learn from.

Remove emotion.

Keep emotion at bay, by concentrating on facts, and demonstrable cause and effect. This is a challenging task, but emotion is the killer of constructive and mutually beneficial conversations.

Be specific about expectations, exhortations to do better are of no value unless you are able to tell  them exactly how to do better, and the metrics by which that performance will be measured.

Context.

Help people to see their work, and place in the organisation from a broader perspective than just their own little part of it. Understanding the context of a role, and the impact the performance of it has on others is a very powerful motivator.

Educate for the next job

Recognise explicitly that most people move on at some point, and that you take it as a personal challenge to ensure that when someone does move on, it is to a better, more senior job, and that you have contributed to the success that gets them there. Helping them build a career path is a part of your job as a leader and manager, and they will be grateful. When you give something of value to someone else, reciprocity kicks in, and in some way, at some time, most will repay the ‘debt’, often with interest.

See the context of peoples working lives.

Understand the patterns and drivers of the lives of those for whom you are responsible. While keeping a distance is easy, and natural, unless you understand what is going on in someone’s life outside the time they  spend as an employee, you will not  be able to understand them as well as you might, and will therefore fall short of being the perfect boss. This can be a very fine and variable line. Some may not welcome what they see as intrusion, but to one what may be intrusion, to another is genuine interest in them as a an individual.

Address the molehills immediately.

Adverse behaviour does happen, and unless called out immediately, will quickly become  accepted as ‘normal’. When you see something great, immediate recognition will drive a repeat performance, and the opposite is also true, and corrosive. Once poor behaviour becomes the norm, it is very hard to change. Nip it in the bud!

Write it down.

There are regulatory requirements, as well as good governance that relies on things being written down and recorded. Some would  say without a written record, it did not happen. Agreeing a written record with the other party goes a long way towards cementing the  changes you need.

No threat no sweat.

‘Performance review’. Just the words elicit a sweat, an impending doom, that affects the conversation. Remove the implied threat, and the conversation can be mutually constructive. Of course, there are the odd occasions where threat is an intention, but it needs to be the exception, rather than the rule.

In these fractured post Weinstein days, ‘gender politics’ may also play a role, particularly if you are a middle aged, heterosexual white guy with the power. Enough said.

Remove with humanity.

Finally, when someone has to go, do it explicitly, but with humanity. Firing someone, particularly someone with whom you have worked closely, for whom you have had responsibility, and who you might like personally, is the hardest management job there is. Do not shirk it, and do  not leave any room for ambiguity. It is not about blame, it is about both parties moving on in their own best interests. You also need to consider those that remain in employment. They will see the termination,  and the manner of it, and come to their own conclusions about how it was handled, why it was necessary, and how it may impact them. Survivor syndrome is remarkably strong and often overlooked.

What have I missed from your experience?

 

Your ‘Values’ should not be table stakes.

Your ‘Values’ should not be table stakes.

Feb 27, 2018 | Customers, Marketing, Social Media

 

Consultants have delivered a lot of value to many over the years, but in some areas, have screwed the pooch.

One is the confusion that presides over the differences in meaning between ‘Vision’, ‘Mission’, and ‘Values’, and more recently, ‘Purpose’.

The result has been a huge number of well meaning but generic sounding statements adorning many reception areas.

You know  the sort of fluffy meaningless stuff I refer to:

‘XYZ company works as a team applying rigorous standards of integrity and authenticity to everything we do. We are focussed on delivering value to our customers, while having fun at work, and respecting the needs of our diverse workforce and supplier partners’

Bollocks.

Each element of that fluffy nonsense is table stakes if you want to stay in business, and in addition, that statement could apply to any business from the multinational supplier of coal to the local massage therapy franchise.

Building a brand, a position, a purpose, however you wish to define it for your business is a hard, long term job. It requires deep consideration of what it is you do, how you add value, and  what makes you sufficiently different to be  noticed and engaged by customers. Having a set of core beliefs that delivers on those three elements is what gives your brand the power and presence to stand out.

If you run a delivery service, speed of delivery is a given, as would be reliability. Having those two words on a board  in your reception will do little to differentiate you from your competition.

It is not easy to come up with the words that reflect the persona of your business, the way you would like others to see you.

It is however, worth the effort.

Good examples are few and far between, perhaps I am just being an old curmudgeon again. Ask Dr Google to give you some examples, and there are millions of responses, all with similar words.  Passion, integrity, respect, innovative, accountability, and so on all feature, largely it is just so much undifferentiated mush.

However, there are a few do stand out, beyond the few like Apple and Google that we all know:

Patagonia: ‘Build the best product, cause no unnecessary harm, use business to inspire and implement solutions to the environmental crisis.’

Warby Parker: ‘To offer designer eyewear at a revolutionary price. While leading the way for socially conscious businesses’

Both these businesses have been standout performers over the recent past. Obviously it is more than their values statements that delivered that  outcome, but it helps.

My local mechanic, to demonstrate you do not need to be a cashed up multinational to have a great statement that defines you, has as his positioning statement on the wall for all to see ‘Our deep experience and attention to the detail ensures that your car stays reliably, safely and comfortably on the road longer.’

This always struck me as a useful expression of why I should be taking my precious old Merc to him.

 

 

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