Dec 31, 2014 | Uncategorized
It is new years eve 2015, and being an advocate of accountability, it is only right that I submit myself to scrutiny over the predictions made in January for 2014.
Below is a reproduction of the post from January 2014, with a few comments and the score I (generously) gave myself.
All in all, a pretty good record I think, although I struggle to find much quantitative data to support the generous scores.
- Simple is the new complicated. All the conversations about social media, analytics, fragmentation of just about everything, we are bombarded with messages, options, and imperatives. Amid all this, marketing is at work, and the stuff that works is simple, cut through ideas. David Ogilvy had a bunch of “Olgivyisms”, one of which was , “big ideas are usually simple ideas”. This still holds true, it is just the big ideas have to cut through more fluff and interference than in Ogilvy’s day, and there is more confusing analytics and alternatives to be considered.
- Score. This remains a prediction, but I guess simplicity will always be a primary objective of thinking marketers. I think it was that great proponent of simplicity Steve Jobs who said “simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”. 3/5
- Simplicity facilitated by new tools. Tools to leverage the capabilities of the web have been getting simpler by the month. It will reach the point where those with absolutely no computer skills at all can participate. WordPress has made building a web presence pretty easy, but now the new generation of similar tools like Weebly, take that a further step. The 40% of SME’s who have no web presence beyond a facebook page set up by their children, has passed, they no longer have an excuse.
- Score. I think this prediction still holds, but I remain astonished at how many small businesses do not get it. The 40% of SME’s without websites remains about the right figure, sand the take-up the new tools does not seem to be as wide as I expected.2/5
- Reach and frequency is dead. This was the mantra of paid advertising for most of my long career, you paid for both in a matrix that focused on a demographic, “women 25-40 with children” or “working women earning over 50k” and so on. Before behavior based analytics with any more accuracy than a big U&A study, it was the best we could do, but it was pretty crap. Now with every man, his friends, and parents on facebook LinkedIn, Pinterest, et al, reach and frequency have a different sound. The enormous penetration of social media and the opportunity for behavioural analytics have changed the dynamics of advertising, and advertisers have raced to the new platforms, without recognising that the existence of the platform, free, and ubiquitous, has changed the rules entirely.
- Score. Not as dead as I thought, but declining. The wider use by Google and facebook particularly of advertising payments based on an outcome beyond just “availability” of an ad is a step that has highlighted to marketers the value of closely defining their targets then personalising communications. Most small businesses however still do not have much idea of how to best use Googles adwords and facebook ads.3/5
- Banner advertising on the web is also dead. Web banners simply do not work in the way a banner on the corner of your street did. They do not grab attention, and convey a message, they are simply in the way. Look no further than the huge drop in rates from a decade ago when they were touted to be the next advertising El Dorado. I am not surprised, simple supply and demand economics would indicate that when supply is infinite, the price at which demand can be met is close to zero. However, there is a caveat. The IPO of facebook in 2012, and Twitter in November 13, based on revenue projections that demand banner ads remain revenue generators is forcing some pretty smart people to consider how to make them sufficiently relevant to continue to attract revenue, and they may just crack the code.
- Score. Did poorly here, marketers are still wasting huge sums on digital banner ads that promise reach, but deliver little of value. I am not sure if this is stupid marketers, or stupid boardrooms, either way, I score myself down. 1/5
- Values matter, more than ever. The temptation is to “pimp” your products and services at every opportunity. LinkedIn forums are full of new “discussions”, which are just pimping a product, very few get opened, they certainly rarely create an discussion, and are one step away from Spam. If you are gong to spend your resources, money, time, talent, on marketing, make it count, tell people “why”. Steve Jobs articulated this very well when launching the now famous “Think Different” ad to Apple employees.
- Score. Got this wrong, pimping products seems to be more prevalent than it was in 2013, but I am prepared to believe that the worm will turn at some point. Perhaps 2015?
- Content is serious business. Content is not just a word, it is a consumer of considerable marketing resources, and the capability of creative content creation to build a brand is evolving at a rapid rate. In the past, I have wondered at the capacity of the web as a brand building device, giving it top marks as a medium of delivery, but I could not think of a brand that had been built by the net. Now it seems, that Red Bull will get a guernsey. Their web presence is exceptional, huge resources are put into creating the positioning as extreme sports in all sorts of amazing ways. This best of 2013 post on Digiday has some great marketing, including Red Bull, and this terrific story of an old Nissan Maxima . The new year will see great strides in video brand building, the pace of creative change, and the socialization of the change, as demonstrated by the Maxima example, will continue to accelerate. In 2014, the “Social” component, promising businesses interacting with their markets for free, will be overtaken by the “media” part of the social media equations, as to be noticed bucks will have to be spent. There will be the off the wall hits, but the average cost of being seen will go up substantially. Content creation without any content marketing and compelling reason why a consumer should even look at it let alone give it any consideration will rapidly become almost useless. Your content is competing in a highly competitive and fragmented market for a share of consumers limited attention, and the old rules of marketing apply.
- Score. At last, a 5, and the evolution will continue.
- “Environmental” research. This is not tree-hugging, it is my term for standing back and forming a view of the context in which your customers and markets live, what is changing that will alter their lives, and how can you leverage those changes by innovating in the manner in which you serve them. Now more than ever, this is a skill required, as there is simply so much data and information around, it is easier than ever to drown in the detail without understanding the context. For example, in my view, 3-D printing is an emerging disruption, not just to manufacturing but across industries that are in any way engaged with selling “things” rather than services. Forming some views on how this may impact on you, and your value chains, and taking steps to build the capabilities that will become necessary to survive and prosper is as important as breathing.
- Score. The jury is out, but the judge (me) still sees this sort of research as absolutely fundamental to success. 3/5
- Data accumulation and “personal leveraging” Word of mouth has always been the best marketing tool available, now the continuing development of social media platforms and marketing automation, the opportunity to be “personal” is increasing with every day that passes. In conjunction with this is the building of lists, contacts with whom you have the opportunity to build a relationship.
- Score. Absolutely. 5/5
- Every person is a potential media channel. Just consider the capability to connect to facebook, LinkedIn, and the rest, and send information, ideas, links, referrals, to everyone in their networks. Media channels used to be a few radio, TV, newspaper and magazine channels, they were all one way, the “stuff” got pushed out and the opportunity to respond was limited to letters to the editor. No longer!
- Score. Still the case, although many, perhaps most small businesses are still not taking advantage of the opportunities.
- Personal Kaizen. Kaizen is Japanese word for “continuous improvement” extensively used in lean literature. Lean is more than just an operational strategy, it is one for every facet of your life and business. Every time you do something, strive to do it better, by being smarter, than the time before. Being serious about personal kaizen makes you curious, interested, and interesting, qualities that attract opportunity.
- Score. I have seen the tern “Kaizen” pop up a bit in the last 12 months in the marketing literature, but that does not mean much is happening. I leave it to you to mark yourself. My mark of me, a bit harsh, but private.
- Craftsmanship. In a world of increasing homogeneity delivered by specification driven design and manufacturing, where differences are often just cosmetic and qualitative, genuine craftsmanship, bespoke design, and catering to the individuality of people is increasingly important. The extent to which craftsmanship and “manufacturing” beyond the C20 concepts of mass manufacturing for operational efficiency can become integrated is just starting to evolve. There are many examples, one I am personally familiar with is Ian berry who is Ironsides leather. Ian crafts leather, belts, harness, bags, using just the old tools of the trade, experience, true skill, and passion. It is true craftsmanship, and buying a belt from him is receiving a gift of that experience and craftsmanship. Ian is also a great advertisement for the point above about simplicity. He produced his website using a Weebly template, a few photos, and a bit of time, no cost. No HTML, no complex menus, no computer skills beyond a one finger familiarity with a keyboard.
- Score. Still the case, perhaps more so. 5/5
- Marketing and technology will continue to collide. The days of marketing being unaccountable are over, there is no excuse for not calculating the ROI of your marketing investments these days. Scott Brinkers blog on the intersection oftechnology and marketing is a terrific resource, his thinking on this is in front of the pack, and allied with Avinash Kaushik’s wonderful Occam’s Razor blog, there is enough brain food to keep most of us fed on the topic.
- Score. Also still the case, if anything, the rate of growth of marketing technology is accelerating. The first Marketing technology conference held in Boston in march 2014 was a resounding success, and I hear from Scott Brinker that the second planned for march 2015 will be even bigger. Enough said. 5/5
- Collaborative marketplaces will continue to rise and rise. The web 2.0 enabled one way markets to thrive, Amazon, Ebay, electronic banking, and many others. More recently, collaborative marketplaces have emerged, where both sides of the transaction put something in, rather than just buying a product. Airbnb, Uber, and many others, will continue to explode, mainstream companies in areas threatened will need to consider how they respond. Car hire companies need to have a service, to disrupt themselves, hotel chains need an equivalent to Airbnb, and so on, the disruption is profound, and just beginning. The best thinking around in this is being done by Jeremiah Owyang, whosebody of work on the topic is extraordinary.
- Score. Still the case, and accelerating. Jerry Owyang’s latest database of recently funded startups on the topic is extraordinary, and expanding. 5/5
- Mobile first. Use of mobile devices to access websites and social media platforms continues to increase, reaching numbers in late 2013 upward of 65%, and reaching the eighties for some specific sites, numbers that astonish even the bullish predictions of a year ago. In developing countries, where the economies are booming, and fixed line infrastructure is limited, mobile and wireless have simply jumped ahead, and the infrastructure of the developed world will simply not be installed. It is these countries that are driving mobile innovation.
- Score. Still the case. 5/5
Let me know what you think,
Another amongst the tsunami of 2015 prediction posts will be along in a few days, but as has been my focus in the past, I seek to articulate the strategic drivers and trends I think will shape our commercial environment, rather than make specific predictions about particular events. Makes holding me to account that much harder.
Hope you had a good Christmas break, now almost over, and that 2015 is a stellar year for you.
Thanks for reading, commenting, and sharing over 2014.
Allen
Dec 22, 2014 | Customers, Governance, Management, Marketing, Small business, Strategy
“marketing” inventory
Taking inventory is one of the most boring things, but necessary things we all need to do. Understanding what you have in stock is fundamental to determining the operational priorities for the future.
Taking physical inventory is familiar to everyone, it is an essential part of staying in business, but how many take an inventory of their marketing assets?
We spend time and money creating things that we hope will deliver leads, or push them through the conversion stages, but how often do we stop and think about optimising the leverage those assets are generating?.
The Christmas break is a great time to get some of this essential stuff done, to examine from the recipients point of view, how well your marketing assets actually work. Following is a list of the typical marketing assets even a small business should have, and often will have without really considering the implications, consequences and costs.
Planning and tracking.
- Do you have a marketing plan that reflects the short to medium term activities needed to deliver on a longer term strategic plan?
- Is there an activity plan for marketing investments that outlines the timing, costs and expected returns from marketing activity in 2015?
- Have you put in place the measures that will enable you to calculate a Return on your marketing investments at each stage of the engagement funnel?
- Are there tracking measures in place that will enable you to improve your returns?
Customers.
- How well do you know your existing customers?
- Who are they?
- What problem are you solving for them?
- Would they be prepared to recommend you to others?
- What is your share of their wallet?
- Why do they use you instead of your competitor?
- Do you know who your priority target customers are?
- Are they defined to the point where you could personalise them?
- Are your communications “personalised” and directed to their specific needs and challenges?
- Do you understand their behaviour
- Do you understand why you lost customers, and have you made the choice not to spend resources to keep, or get them back?
- Are there some ex customers you are happy are ex? And why
Digital assets
- Are your websites and social media platforms linked and cross posting?
- Are your profiles optimised on each platform?
- Are tracking codes in place and optimised on each web page and platform?
- Do you work the key search terms for your segments naturally into the headlines and body copy of posts?
- Are the auto responder emails appropriate for the trigger response?
- Do you say “Thank You” enough?
- Are you capturing data at every opportunity?
- The “ABC of sales” or “Always be closing” school of sales has changed to “always be collecting”.
- Are you using analytics to test, test, and test again to improve your conversion rates?
- Do you track conversion rates at each stage of the sales funnel?
Relationships
- Are you seeking ways to build and leverage relationships with suppliers, and natural partners?
- What is the balance of your sales efforts between nurturing existing relationships to building new ones, and is that balance appropriate?
- How would you rate your relationships with your best customers?
Capability building
- How deep and appropriate is your management “bench” or in its absence, contractors to fill gaps?
- Have you defined the capabilities necessary to sustain growth and profitability, and set about building on the existing, and filling any holes?
Your time.
As the owner of a business, the most valuable asset you have is your time. Problem is usually there is not enough of it, and others do not value it so try to use it to their purposes.
- Do you have the business/life balance right? I know it is a cliché, but that is why it is true.
- Do you explicitly set out to work “on your business” rather than in it? Another cliché, but also true.
- Does the business run without your detailed day to day involvement?
- If not, when will that day come?
Financial management.
I often get puzzled looks when as a marketing consultant I bang on about things financial. However, it does not matter how good your marketing is if the product is crap, or delivered late, or sold at below cost. Financial management is the foundation of any enterprise, as much as marketing is the essential ingredient for success.
- Do you have a cash flow forecast?
- Do you know and actively your costs, fixed and variable?
- Have you calculated your break even?
- Have you a revenue forecast and operational planning in place?
The above is just a start, a “taster” for 2015 which I expect to be a difficult year, so those who are best prepared, will do well, the others… well, they sell flowers at the funeral home.
Thanks for reading, responding and sharing my musings through 2014. I am going to take a break from the keyboard for a short time. Have a safe and merry Christmas, and I will see you in 2015.
Allen
Dec 17, 2014 | Change, Customers, Strategy
“Only the paranoid survive”. Andy Gove
We spend heaps of time setting out to satisfy customers, do what is right for them, to ensure our success, no argument, but is it enough?
To add another dimension to your competitive efforts, ask yourself the simple question “what would really hurt the opposition?”
If the answer is clear, you probably should do it to them before they either do it to you, or address the weakness.
It does not matter if you are BHP or a local business, there is a always a strong Darwinian trait displayed by those who are successful.
In my past, I spend a significant amount of time in the dairy industry, lots of lessons, but amongst them one that demonstrates the essential truth of commercial Darwinism.
My major competitor made an inordinate amount of their total profit from one product in one state, a situation that had evolved over many years, and seemed unassailable. The margins they made on this product would have funded a substantial amount of activity elsewhere that was causing us grief. The board of the dairy co-operative I worked for would not allow me to aggressively attack that profit pool, not being prepared to lose a little bit in order to assist the competitor lose a lot.
They were concerned at retaliatory action, correctly, but the capacity to retaliate would have been limited by the impact on their profits of a successful attack by us, and the fact that our business did not have any equivalent weak point that made us way less vulnerable. My view at the time, and still, was that the real reason they were unprepared to be aggressive was that it was not “gentlemanly” and the dairy industry in those days, which was still evolving from a lot of smaller co-operatives, carried some of the competitive baggage of being a co-operative.
Gentlemen did not do those things!
Competitively stupid decision, and an opportunity lost, but all this had nothing to do with the customer, beyond setting out to disrupt the comfortable relationship they had with my competitors brand in South Australia.
Some years after I left the business, my erstwhile target, having addressed their competitive weaknesses, successfully mounted a successful hostile takeover of the my previous employer, who still acted as though the competitive market place was somewhere that gentlemen met to have afternoon tea.
Sometimes we lose sight of the playing field as we play the game, we talk about competitive advantage, but often just in the context of the customer, and the value they receive, but forget the flip side of competitive advantage, finding a way to belt your competitor over the head.
Legally of course, and within the boundaries of acceptable behaviour, but nevertheless, a belting.
Dec 15, 2014 | Change, Governance, Leadership, Strategy
With thanks to Tom Fishburne. http://tomfishburne.com.s3.amazonaws.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/140505.pivot_.jpg
Strategy is one of those alters of organisation to which almost everyone offers lip service, and once a year in the planning cycle, receives mass genuflection. That does not mean we believe, just that it is a part of the duty of organisations, and as such, fails to deliver to its potential.
Over the years as a corporate employee and consultant, I have seen strategy implementations fail, sometimes with spectacular results. Usually however, strategy just whimpers in the corner, ignored and derided, but every now and again, I have been privileged to see, and be a part of successful strategic exercises. Below is a list of the most frequent sources of the failures I have seen, the good part of such a list is that taking the opposite gives you a list of what you need to do to succeed.
- Failing to understand that reality is not always what people tell themselves, self talk is too often tangled up with self delusion and adherence to the status quo. Recognising the hard realities as they actually are rather than the way you would like them to be is a remarkably common delusion.
- Believing self serving optimism and hubris are substitutes for achievable goals. It is OK, indeed admirable to work towards the BHAG, but allowing ego, management power based on the position rather than the person, and “group-think” into the room , and it becomes a different beast.
- Not seeing “Capability inflation” for the damming flaw that it is. Virtually everyone sees themselves as better than average at whatever it is they are doing, which simply does not work. Capability like everything else in life is spread across some sort of “normal” curve, in which the only thing that really changes is the height of the average, in relation to the spread of scores.
- Not recognising that competitors do not always react in an orderly and predictable manner, they are not a party too your strategies, and rarely react in wholly predictable ways.
- The factors often seen as “differentiators” are very often just the table stakes to be in the game. Asking management what are the “differentiators”, what characteristics makes any enterprise different, or its products different, and you usually get back a list of things that are just a cost of doing business, just like a watch has to tell accurate time before it is a watch.
- Failure to recognise and adjust for unintended consequences quickly. Usually this occurs because it is not in the plan, and plans are after all prepared by the bosses, performance measures are tied to the plan, and it is a great adornment on the shelf. (my time contracting to the Public Sector sees this blatant ignoring of unintended consequences justified by all sorts of complicated and cliché ridden language developed as an art form)
- Failure to believe. For a senior management to formulate spruik, and go through the motions of articulating and implementing a strategy, then not “living” it themselves means the strategy is doomed to failure. People watch what you do far more than they listen to what you say. Saying you believe is not enough.
- Underestimating the importance of “people“, their attitudes, fears, relationships, egos, and behavioural norms.
- Failing to recognise the elasticity of the status quo. Its durability in the face of logic, common sense and the blinding obvious (to outsiders) is just remarkable.
- Failing to understand and manage the essential paradox of “predictable” and “Innovation” . Customers like predictability, they come to rely in it, but they also expect their suppliers to be at the “cutting edge” to be finding innovative solutions to their problems, and the jobs to be done by their products. Nobody has managed this paradox as well as Apple over the last 20 years. Their products are all predictable easy to use, look great, and perform beautifully, yet they are always at the cutting edge, innovating with everything they do.
- Failing to recognise the sources and likelihood of disruption, and preparing as if it was about to happen. The commercial technical and competitive environment in which a strategy has to succeed is increasingly being disrupted in very hard to predict ways. Strategy is about the basic choices that make up the business model, and those are no longer models that are predictable across decades, they are evolving almost daily. A quick look through Jerry Owyangs presentations, writings and data bases outlining the collaborative economy is all the evidence of the shifts happens that are needed, but just think a few words: Air BnB, Uber, Amazon, iTunes.
- Failing to understand that loyalty cannot be built by money, and material benefits, loyalty is to people, and is very local. it must be earned by displaying and genuinely feeling respect, awareness and interest in individuals. Dunbar’s number plays a huge, largely unrecognised role in organisations. 150 people is about the maximum we can have relationships with on a face to face basis, and the smaller the group, the more intense the potential of the relationships that exist. In this context, loyalty is local, people relate to, work with, and support those who are a part of their local “tribe” against all those outside their tribes. This can often mean other divisions from the same business, or even the other function living down the hall. Believing this local loyalty can be leveraged or changed without real hard work is a common trap for strategists, particularly those entering a strategy that calls for organisation al change, renewal, and in the case of M&A activity.
- Failing to understand that data is inherently ambiguous, and swings between being of some value and intensely dangerous. It all depends on the assumptions that drive the analysis, wrong assumptions render the analysis at best misleading. Is that upswing in sales due to the insightful marketing campaign, or the failure of a competitor to deliver due to problems in the factory? Bet I know most marketing people will say.
- Thinking Strategy and culture are one and the same thing, with perhaps just a few nuances for each. Whilst they must be considered together, they must be managed as separate but mutually reinforcing entities, A degree of inconsistency here will see a strategy fail, as culture is always stronger. Attempts to change culture to align with strategy, rather than recognising the the power and reliance of culture, are doomed to failure, it is simply too elastic to be easily changed. There are really only two ways to change culture. The first is bit by bit, with a leader who demonstrates the behavior required, and is unprepared to accept compromises. The second is to fire almost everybody, if not everybody, and start again.
- Failure to recognise any of the above for what it really is, and calling it something politically more acceptable, thus ignoring the failure, and worse, taking no steps to correct the sources of that failure.
I would be interested in other sources of strategic failure you have witnessed, or been a part of, I am sure there are many I have missed.
Dec 10, 2014 | Uncategorized
Courtesy www.milehightreefarm.com
The third in the series outlining the 10 ways small businesses can beat the supermarket gorillas at their own game, by aggressively executing on category management.
Read the first here, the second here.
What better time is there for small businesses trying to make a mark with consumers and those key gatekeepers, retailers, than Christmas?
The 5 rules that normally apply to category marketig still do, but in the heat of the season, the quick and the smart can find a bit of extra leverage.
Any time of change is a time of opportunity, and Christmas ranging is one of the biggest changes retailers go through in the manner in which they allocate their shelf space, as they seek to maximise their seasonal sales. Doesn’t matter what market retailers are in, from fashion to food, car accessories to handbags, pre Christmas sales are critical to the annual numbers.
Meeting customer needs, and maximising the value of the retail shelf -space is what category management is all about.
Just think about the space supermarkets allocate to hams from the beginning of December. Where does that space come from? How do they allocate it across differing brands, sizes and types of ham? and if you are a ham producer, how can you get a slice, and if you sell some of the products that give up shelf space, to hams, how do you make up for the lack of shelf exposure?
6 simple strategies to employ to maximise sales:
- Know the relay schedule, and if possible be involved in the planning discussions. Most chain retailers, particularly supermarkets will have a lead supplier who has the inside running because they have all the data, and better access to the decision makers, but that doesn’t mean you cannot participate.
- Understand the volumes and margins of all products in the category, and manage your recommendations to the retail buyer with his objectives in mind, maximising the absolute margins that come from the shelf space, rather than just concentrating on your margins. Retail buyers are not there to look after your margins, only theirs.
- Understand the sales that come from differing shelf positions, and the impact of differing placements for differing Sku’s. Eye level is always best, but is high better than low? What about the type of shelf grouping, by size, brand, flavour, which combination is the best for you, and the retailer? Retailers will generally have a layout in place, but are often willing to experiment, from which you can both learn.
- Recognise the importance of the retailers profit model, particularly for bricks and mortar: Volume X Item gross margin = gross profit. Going one step further, dividing by the shelf space allocation gives a return on the space, and being really fancy, you can weight the value of the shelf space for a number I call RRRE. (Return on Retail Real Estate).
- To some degree, the discipline of the planogram that covers the other 11 months of the year will be put aside in favour of the short term outcome, knowing once the Xmas frenzy is over, they can revert to the plan, it is a great opportunity for those who can grasp it. Encourage field staff to be creative, a stack of bananas or Christmas pudding near the custard, French mustard next to the hams, dried fruit into he flour category with some cake recipes, A scarf from next door with your handbags, the potential for cross selling at Christmas is limited only by imagination.
- Christmas is a terrific time of the year, family, friends, social opportunities on steroids. At the same time, as the pressure comes off a bit because all the key decisions have been made, it is a great time to work on the relationships, plant the seeds that will deliver next year, and build your category management profile with your customers. After all, your competition is probably at the bar thinking the game is over. Whoops.
When you think that perhaps some external wisdom might be useful, lets have a chat.
