Customer churn and the quality of sales

One of my clients is in a pretty difficult spot.

Having lost a major contract, simply on price from an offshore based competitive supplier to his supermarket customer, he finds himself in the position where his overheads will eat him alive quickly without very painful commercial surgery. 

Over a period of time we have been discussing the Quality of his sales Vs the Quantity of sales, but assembling and allocating the resources to execute a change in the customer base has proven easy to say, very hard to do.

 It is fine to obsess about the sales revenue line,  but rather than just consider the quantity of sales, the quality is just as, if not more important. Had the volume he did with the supermarket been spread around 3 customers who were less likely to go offshore looking for a better  price, even accepting the higher transaction costs, he would today be far better off.

Many businesses, particularly service businesses like insurance and Telcos factor in customer churn, and spend lots of marketing dollars to replace the customers they will lose through poor service, pricing, competitive deals and so on. Directing a small percentage of those dollars to better engaging with and servicing existing customers to reduce churn would be far better.

It is the quality of sales that should be measured, not just the quantity.

 

A fine line between flattery and robbery

If imitation is the best form of flattery, domestic FMCG suppliers, the few left, should be very flattered indeed.

Any lingering doubts about the pressure being applied to them by the two retail gorillas should be blown away by this video from ad agency Mumbrella, which demonstrates the fine line between flattery and IP stealing.

This has happened in front of our eyes to one of our core manufacturing industries, and when the piper calls to be paid, it will prove to be very expensive indeed. There is so little packaged food manufacturing now being done in Australia that the industry is in real strife, I suspect scale is rapidly falling past the point of viability, and those left are under great pressure.

Perhaps the new ACCC chairman Rod Simms will follow up on his words that seem to indicate a different attitude to the retail duopoly than his predecessors.

 

FMCG duopoly under pressure?

It seems that new ACCC chief Rod Sims is getting serious about the reality of the power of the two major supermarket retailers.

At the same time, Andrew Reitzer  MD of Metcash is giving the ACCC a headache over his presumptive execution of the purchase of Franklins from Pick n’ Pay before the Federal court had ruled, simply on the basis that the business was bleeding cash, and the transaction had to be done, even at the risk of the consequences of  an adverse finding.

An interview by Alan Kohler of  Reitzer and the accompanying commentary give a great insight into the thinking behind the only real alternative to the power of Coles and Woolworths.

The overwhelming power of Coles and Woolworths has nevertheless not stopped the evolution of niche retailers like Harris Farm, competitive regional supermarkets like Drakes and Ritchies, and market entry of Aldi and Costco. The downward pressure on purchase price has however wrecked havoc on the Australian food manufacturing  sector, with very few left, and those that are in pretty shallow water, with the only really large domestically owned manufacturer left, Goodman Fielder performing poorly

I can only hope that in the new environment of more aggressive review of the retailers, that the plight of the domestic manufacturing sector  is adequately considered.

 

Net Cash Consumption

This is a simple measure I try to foist on all my SME clients, the Monday morning “NCC meeting”.  It is just as important to larger businesses, but my clients are mostly SME’s.

It involves a meeting of the key cash sensitive executives, (generally the MD, Beenie, Sales and Purchasing), and tabling a daily record of cash in and out,  and rolling forecasts for the week and month to come. The participants  table the decisions and expectations of the next week, and month, and looks at the cash consumption of week past. Very simple, 10 minutes when the routines are established, but a very valuable 10 minutes, as it surfaces potential cash problems before they bite .

Measuring the cash flow of a business is a bit like  going to the doctor, the first thing he measures is your pulse and blood pressure, if these are OK, chances are the patient is OK, if not, look further. The NCC is the commercial equivalent, and anything that shows up here as being out of expectations requires further examination.

Amplification and social media effectiveness.

Following on from yesterday’s post, on quantifying the value of social media, a couple of further thoughts.

Like any activity, it is crucial to undertake activity utilising social media in the context of achieving an objective,  a commercial activity of any type is doomed to irrelevance without an objective against which to measure success, and learn how to improve.

Similarly, an effective plan requires that there be a logical, sequential series of activities that all play a role in the achievement of the objective articulated.

So, a three step process for achieving Social Media effectiveness:

    1. Acquisition. Where do yu expect the visitors to the activity to come from?
    2. Behavior. What do you want them to do while visiting?
    3. Outcome. What is the commercial outcome that you are looking for?

This this third leg, outcome, is the key one, and can be many things, but currently are usually centered around simple measures such as time on site, page visits, and purchase. However, these simple measures whilst useful ignore the power of the social media, its capacity to amplify a message, so a set of  measures around the degree to which the message is “amplified” should be considered. The number of  “likes”, comments, retweets, and similar measures of activity that “amplifies” a post are the real measure of social media effectiveness. This post by Avinash Kaushik, Google’s analytics guru offers some great thinking.