The elusive formula for winning and managing government grants.

The elusive formula for winning and managing government grants.

 

There is considerable grant money being allocated to innovative solutions to technical and market challenges by all levels of government. Such a honey-pot attracts all sorts of characters with a whole range of motivations, along with the genuine applicants seeking help. In this environment, panels of disinterested departmental officials and sometimes so called ‘experts’ are called upon to make judgements. As has been demonstrated over the last few years, these judgements are not always followed closely when votes are in play.

Be prepared to acknowledge that there is a whole lot of ‘lottery’ involved. Judgements about your eligibility against a set of guidelines that can be ambiguous, convoluted, and occasionally contradictory, can be an enormously frustrating and time consuming exercise for applicants. In addition, despite what is said, innovation involves risk. No government wants risk, and bureaucrats are conditioned by their culture to be utterly risk averse. The most remote whiff of risk, an indication of potential failure which can be politically weaponised to end careers is abhorrent to project assessors, irrespective of the number of times the word ‘innovation’ appears in the literature and conversation.

Before you ever approach the process of committing the resources to apply for a grant, then managing it should you be successful, you need to understand 3 basic rules:

  1. Any grant funds will come into your P&L at the top line, so will add to profit assuming you make some, or reduce future tax losses. Most programs require cash co-investment, so make sure you discount the potential value of grant funds appropriately before you start.
  2. Notions of Commercial in Confidence, often a central driver of innovators is absolute poison to public authorities, whose whole mind-set is about levelling the playing field. Assertions of Commercial in Confidence, written or verbal are worthless, even when delivered in good faith, as the project proposal usually goes through multiple hands during assessment.
  3. To quote a senior bureaucrat during a conversation with me about the above two considerations: ‘when you get into bed with the government, who do you think is on top?” Recognise that grants come with strings, and managing pro-actively those strings, even when they seem somewhere between irrelevant and absurd, is essential to your ongoing sanity.

Assuming you have come to terms with these three factors and want to continue, following is a check list of what you simply must do, and not do.

Do’s

  • Ensure you have very clear objectives and project path before you set about filling in the forms. Adjusting your project plan, time frames, or objectives in order to meet program guidelines and make your application seem better, is a common and serious mistake. Ensure your project fits their guidelines perfectly, never adjust your project to fit. A bit of nipping and tucking may seem like it will enhance your chances, and it may, but most often it comes back to bite.
  • Clearly understand the objectives of the program. This sounds pretty obvious, and it is usually reasonably clear. However, there are always implicit objectives such as inclusion, equality, job generation, and most importantly re-election prospects that play an often unstated role.
  • Reflect back the words of the stated project objectives in your communications, and add in some that reflect positively on the implicit objectives.
  • Most programs work in rounds driven by dates. While this is often very inconvenient commercially, it better suits the bureaucracies. A project that is rejected in one round might be successful in another less populated by applicants, as the tendency is to break up the program funding into equal parts. So, persist. Ask for and take the advice on why your application failed this round, (‘the money ran out for this round’ will never be one of them, although it will often be the case) and work that advice into your application in the next round.
  • Be prepared to have some well academically qualified person without any relevant experience of your industry, and indeed life outside the bureaucratic bubble, believing they can and should give you strategic and operational advice. You will be well advised to politely acknowledge and follow this advice, at least superficially, if your application is to be favourably reviewed.
  • Always be prepared to report as per the schedules, preferably a day or two before the deadline. Be explicit in your application about the importance you place on these milestones and the attached KPI’s. These milestone reviews will always be a part of the grant contract, embrace them. Set about making auditing your project progress easy for the granting body.
  • When you are not successful with an application, try and find out why, so you can do better next time. This can be a hugely frustrating process, and rarely will you ever know for sure, as those trying to explain it will be paranoid about telling you anything that may be used against them. I once prepared a grant application for a regional manufacturing innovation program for a client, where the guidelines were an absolutely perfect fit. My client was located in a regional town, had two patents on parts of the process he proposed to use, so we appeared to ‘nail’ the innovation requirement, would have generated a number of jobs, and was value adding a waste agricultural product, but we missed out. I spent considerable time and energy trying to understand why, but failed. I ended up receiving a number of 4-page emails that were absolutely incomprehensible, and could not get through on the phone. The ‘official’ up to whom my questions and protestations had been pushed simply stonewalled me. Eventually, as I am sure was the desired departmental outcome, I and my client gave up to invest the time and energy in something useful.
  • Document everything, they will, and you might need to refer back at some point.
  • Ignore the preponderance of verbs and adjectives that will adorn the guidelines and accompanying material. They are simply a manifestation of the bureaucratic instinct to complicate everything, using 3 words when one would suffice.
  • Offer cream biscuits at the very least with the coffee in the unlikely event that they drag themselves out of the Canberra bubble and come to your offices. Lunch is better still, call it relationship building.

 

Don’ts

  • Do not get annoyed by constant insistence that you nominate the electorate and postcode where your project will take place.  Just give them something that serves as press release fodder, irrespective of how accurate it might be. Usually this will be your ‘head office’ even if there is absolutely no relevant activity beyond governance being conducted from that address.
  • Do not ever miss a deadline of any sort. When implementing a project, if it looks likely you might miss one, forewarn them, with the reasons, then, preferably, meet the deadline. The added effort to recover to the deadline will deliver brownie points. Any variation to the terms of a grant agreement are treated differently when they are a surprise, than when they are forewarned. This is really just common sense and courtesy, but I have seen tiny molehills blow up like Vesuvius in their absence. Such misses can motivate an audit. The right to audit will be written into the grant contract, but will probably never happen in the absence of some sort of catalyst that motivates action. When they do audit, they are usually ‘tick and flick’ exercises. However, noncompliance with the reporting schedule, or obvious inconsistencies that emerge from a cursory look can lead to deeper audits that are seeking to find the inevitable breaches of the guidelines and grant contract detail. Responding will be a time consuming, frustrating, and resource hungry exercise. You have things to do to move the project forward, and manage the rest of your business, while they have as an objective, finding out where you have cut a corner, adjusted priorities, or spent in a way that is even marginally inconsistent with the agreement.  Best to avoid that sort of scrutiny by overt compliance.
  • Don’t expect them to be as responsive as you expect. The sense of urgency you feel will have no effect on the pace of progress of your application. Don’t let it frustrate you, too much.
  • Do not counsel them on the challenges faced in filling in their demonic templated application forms. Somebody who may be commenting on your application designed it, thinks it is perfect, and might take such criticism personally. When they are difficult, as they normally are, ask for clarification, pointing out the deficiencies as inhibiting the quality of the information you are giving them, rather than pointing out their idiot template was generated by Satan.
  • Don’t become annoyed at the constant communication required by different people who ask the same questions as the previous incumbent. This is nothing compared to the changes in personnel that will occur during the project implementation. It will often feel like you were put on earth to train a seemingly endless stream of apprentices.
  • Never forget that most grant programs are competitive. Therefore, you are not only seeking to demonstrate to the assessors that your solution to challenges being addressed is worth supporting, but it is more worthwhile than any of the ‘competitive’ applications.
  • Don’t forget that those doing the assessing are just people, trying to do a job in a culture that will be entirely different to yours. Generally they do not set out to frustrate your ambitions, that is just an unintended consequence of the culture they must operate in, so do not overreact.

 

The benefits of grant funding.

  • Obviously, when appropriate, and well executed, the cash. Almost always this is the primary reason a grant is sought. However, it often becomes secondary to the following point.
  • Recognition, networks and the next grant. Governments live and die by the communication they generate, and networks they can leverage. Generally they are pretty good at it, having brought in communication professionals who do know their jobs. (I exclude advertising from this comment. Public servants generally know absolutely nothing about advertising effectiveness, but insist on their right as the client to dictate the ads, which is why there is so many wallpaper ads thrown at us) Once recognised as a compliant, PR friendly grant recipient, the networking opportunities are significant, and often prove to be the best outcome of a grant. Being a recipient, and having that good record of co-operation, gives you a head start the next time, as you are a known quantity, which reduces risk.

I hope that all helps, good luck, you might need it.

Header cartoon credit: Tom Gauld

 

 

 

Bing takes a sniff of (AI enhanced) Columbian marching powder.

Bing takes a sniff of (AI enhanced) Columbian marching powder.

 

Bing and its sibling ‘Edge’ have been coming third in a one-horse race for a long time now. Suddenly the emergence of the AI equivalent of a plutonium battery powered race whip in the form of ChatGPT has delivered a proper kick up the arse.

The world has changed, pivoted on a dime as they say, as a result.

No longer will Google search be the only game in town, and Chrome the default browser housed on 98% of devices. The new race has begun with a wider field, and no doubt some roughies hiding in the wings.

Microsoft announced 2 weeks ago that it has extended OpenAI’s models across their Azure services, widely used by developers, so who knows what might spring out of that.  Last week Microsoft confirmed ChatGPT is being incorporated into Bing and Edge.

Google have the most to lose here, so have scrambled to announce they intend to incorporate their version of OpenAI’s google-killer ‘Bard’ into search making it more ‘ChatGPT like’. It is just a pity the horse stumbled at the first hurdle by failing to answer a simple question, leading to a share price nose-dive into the turf.

This is a must win race for Google, as 80% of their revenue comes from advertising. With hindsight, they have bet the farm on the one horse, never a great strategy in a volatile environment.

It is going to be interesting!!

 

 

 

 

 

The misleading myth of work/life balance.

The misleading myth of work/life balance.

 

The term work/life balance seems to have been taken into our commonly used language. It pops up everywhere there is a discussion about stress, personal development, post covid back to work, and many others.

To me it is a deeply flawed metaphor.

The term ‘Balance’ immediately brings to mind the mental picture of the old-style balance, as in the header.

Our lives are not binary, there is way, way more than just work and life involved. How does family, ambition, community, workplace equality, financial comfort, and a host of other factors we all face come into view and play a role?

Depending on the context in which we think about these things, the weight we put on all these factors will change. Therefore it is more like a complex jigsaw puzzle where the size, shape, relative weight, and manner in which the pieces fit together is a far better description.

I have a friend going through the process of selling his small, successful business to retire and find greater work/life balance. From the time he told me he was going to sell a year ago, to our most recent conversation a few days ago, the shape and relative weight of the pieces in his ‘jigsaw’ have continued to evolve with his changing state of mind.

Selling a business you have worked your arse off to build can be a deeply emotional decision, subject to uncertainty about the way hindsight might score the decision.

As he has progressed through the various stages necessary to ensure he maximises the sale value to him, while keeping faith with his client base, I have observed a wide range of emotions. These have been completely at odds with the initial reason he gave me of finding more work/life balance in semi-retirement, whatever that might look like.

So, do not believe in binary absolutes, ever. They are just put there to appear to simplify complexity, but which inevitably lead to uncertainty and miscalculation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

How will Google respond to the existential threat of AI powered search?

How will Google respond to the existential threat of AI powered search?

 

Never have I seen a more definitive example of Clayton Christianson’s ‘innovators Dilemma’ than what is being played out right now, in front of our eyes.

In summary, the dilemma is that dominating incumbent businesses are loathe to change the model that made them dominating incumbents. This results in them failing to innovate in ways that have potential to erode the cash flow from former successes.

Christianson had many examples in his book originally published in 1997, but none better than the existential crisis being faced by Google from ChatGPT, launched in November 2022.

Googles control of the search market is almost absolute, with a share of well over 90%. When you add in the rebranded search engines that simply use Google under another name, like Apples  Safari, and discount the mistakes that lead to Microsoft’s Bing being clicked, it is probably 97% or above.

Ask Google a question, and the first 5 or 6 responses are ads. They represent potential answers to your question, but just potential from the indexed websites. The revenue from those ads that also follow you around the web is 80% of Googles total revenue, most of the balance coming from ad revenue on YouTube. After scrolling through the ads, you will have to skim and review a number of possible sites that may deliver you the answer you are seeking.

Ask ChatGPT the same question, and you get back one answer. No ads, yet. You may have to become increasingly explicit in the question you ask, but the response time is close to real time, and you get the best answer available. It may not be the perfect answer, although we can expect it to improve, but it will save heaps of time.

Google claim to have a similar system sitting on the shelf. In addition, they made a $400 million investment in an AI start-up called Anthropic in late November, just after Chat was launched. I’m sure they have the capability to deliver an answer to Microsoft, as they have been playing with AI for a long time. Perhaps they did not launch because it is not yet perfect, what new product ever is, but more probably they delayed because it is a threat to the existing revenue of the business.

Since the early days, Google has sat on its mountain of cash and not innovated. They have fiddled at the edges, as shown by their site that keeps tabs on their hits and misses,  killedbygoogle.com but never confronted their cash cow, search, with any sort of  innovation that might eat their breakfast. This is in stark contrast to what Apple has been prepared to do, several times.

Whatever else happens, ChatGPT and its backer Microsoft have taken the initiative, and I suspect this will be the best $10 billion investment Microsoft has made in decades. Incorporating ChatGPT into Bing suddenly gives Bing a reason to exist and a competitive advantage to which many will be attracted.

I can only imagine there are late nights in Sundar Pichai’s  (Alphabet’s CEO) office currently as they try and figure out a way to combat this competitive threat while preserving their river of cash from advertising.

As I wrote this post, Google shares tanked and Microsoft announced a new generation of Bing running the next iteration of ChatGPT, customised for search.

Header: Google meets ChatGPT in the style of Monet in blogs used courtesy Dall-E, ChatGPT’s graphic AI stablemate.

Update No. 1. Feb 10, 3 hours after the original publication. probably the first of many.

I came across this Google post on their own site, via Visual Capitalist. If anything, it absolutely confirms the contention in the above post that Google have badly fumbled the ball. Timing is a much underrated quality in marketing. On several occasions, I have done the right thing at the wrong time, usually well before the market is ready, and failed as a result, only to see a competitor succeed at a later date.

The current parlous state of the Australian food industry.

The current parlous state of the Australian food industry.

 

We all need to eat, but we seem to take for granted the access to processed and fresh food and groceries. To consider the ‘food industry’ as one entity ignores the entirely different strategic drivers of the three main components: Raw material production or ‘farming’, Manufacturing, and retail.

They should be treated separately as while interdependent, they are driven by entirely different forces.

In addition to food products in the FMCG basket, you have many non-food items from cleaning and homewares to health, beauty, and personal and pet care categories. Go into any supermarket, and these non-food categories take up somewhere around 20% of shelf space.

Farming.

The ‘family farm’ used to dominate the farming sector, but that is diminishing as scale enabled by capital takes the place of family intergenerational ownership. Costs come down with corporate ownership, but you are most likely to see agricultural monocultures emerge, as short-term financial returns creep up the priority list.

The register of foreign ownership, flawed as it is, records in the latest report  June 2021, that 14.1% of agricultural land is in foreign hands, up from 10.9% the previous year. The National Farmers Federation estimates that 99% of farm enterprises are owned by Australians. Clearly the big are getting bigger at the expense of the small.

The infrastructure necessary for the management of farm production requires substantial investment, the rail networks have broken down, and the roads are a mess. This is a long-term problem, and the logistic costs of farming will increase faster than the inflation rate.

Manufacturing.

A report from the AFGC concludes that profitability is declining, due largely to the concentration of retail, and that imports will gain ground as a result. Currently the food & beverage manufacturing industry employs 276,000 people, 40% of them in regional areas, and has an output value of 127 billion, 32% of total Australian manufacturing output. In other words, it is big and diverse both geographically and demographically, and therefore should hold a significant place in the thinking about how we educate and groom future leaders.

The gross figures for the industry indicate that there is almost 30% of production value exported. Problem is that the vast majority of this is raw or minimally processed meat and grain, employing few people, anywhere in their supply chains, and competing in commodity markets.

Of The 8 directors of the Australian Food and Grocery Council, the industry’s ‘representative’ body, one is the CEO of an Australian beverage company, the other 9 are all the chief executives of multinationals. This is not a bad thing beyond the obvious fact that it perpetuates the lobbying and resulting policy positions of government in favour of MNC’s vs the locally owned industry.

As a young bloke coming into FMCG in the late 70’s after a few years as a nomad, there were many businesses of a whole range of sizes and types to work for. Over time, the number and diversity has been radically reduced. Significant industries like dairy are now almost complete branch offices of multinationals. The exception is produce, where there are still many farming suppliers, although there are now a few very big consolidators, like Costas, who dominate the supply chain into retail. There are no proprietary produce brands in retail, beyond a couple of minor organic brands. Retailers have ensured that they absorb all the proprietary margin in produce.

If there is a light in the tunnel starting to be seen evolving as a result of the disruption of supply chains, and the low profitability of FMCG manufacturing, it may be Bega. Bega Cheese, which was rescued from the clutches of the receiver by now foreign owned Dairy Farmers Ltd way back in (about) 1991, has been able to expand by buying the Port Melbourne site of Kraft, as it was taken over by Mondelez, and ending up being able to buy the Vegemite brand, and more recently the rebranded peanut butter business. Perhaps this is the beginning of a resurgence?

Retail.

Grocery market size and share in Australia is debateable depending on what is included. By most analyses, Woolworths has around 37% share, Coles 28%, and Aldi, now the real third force 11%, and the wholesaler supplied groups around 7%. The remaining 17% is made up of a patchwork of fresh and farmers markets, direct from farm delivery, small independent retailers, and convenience outlets.

In addition to grocery, there is the huge food service market, varying from the local owner operated restaurant and takeaway, to fast food chains and five-star dining. This sector consumes a large amount of product and employs thousands of people.

The power wielded by this bloc of 76% of grocery sales is immense. As they have scaled out of the ruck that was the retail playing field in the 70’s and 80’s, taking over or leaving to the receiver less robust competitors. They have squeezed manufacturer margins by a range of strategic weapons that are a classic case study of Michael Porters 5 forces. In response, manufacturers have similarly scaled by using regional manufacturing hubs, most often in Asia. The impact on domestically owned manufacturing has been dramatic, accelerated during the period where the $A was above parity with the $US, which encouraged wider adoption of house brands manufactured overseas, wiping out what remained of locally owned manufacturing. With a couple of notable exceptions, (San Remo, and now Bega, and Sanitarium who do not pay tax, for example) Australian owned food manufacturing is down to sub scale cottage manufacturers relying on the fragmented but still difficult 24% not controlled by the three retail gorillas.

It is fair to acknowledge the strategic failure of local management, while throwing rocks at the retailers. There used to be major FMCG brands owned by domestic businesses, built up over extended periods that failed to recognise the long-term strategic importance of maintaining their brands. Instead, they surrendered to the tactical demands of retailers for short term promotional dollars that assisted retail margins while keeping prices low. Short term, consumers may have benefitted from the price competition while having significantly less choice. Long term, they face the impact of an economy that has only a tiny proportion of its biggest manufacturing industry being able to make strategic choices driven by domestic priorities.

A few thoughts about the future.

Technology cannot do anything but increasingly impose itself on the industry, in all its components. Australia is already a world leader in the development and deployment of Agricultural technology. Failure to accelerate the rate of innovation will find Australian agriculture losing the current productivity edge we have, as while we are really good farmers, the soils of the continent are old and poor, subject to significant climatic risks Therefore to keep our position, we must continue to be smarter.

Innovations in retail are happening elsewhere. ‘Amazon Go’ type technology will transform the shopping experience, and home delivery will not be going away. Meanwhile Australian retailers are wedded to optimising the business model that has made them successful in the past. This will open up opportunities for alternative retail formats and processes.

Retailers are good at retailing, but have been proven to be lousy at product innovation. In the past, product and category innovation has come from businesses tapped into the consumer psyche. Unfortunately, those businesses are virtually gone, so where is the next innovation going to spring form? Certainly not from the office of a buyer whose KPI’s are all about margin today

The logistic infrastructure so vital in a country as large and diverse as Australia is in poor shape. Rail networks are broken, roads are going the same way, a trend recently accelerated by flooding, and you cannot get drivers of heavy and long-haul equipment easily. The median age of all transport drivers is approaching 50, and long-haul semi drivers is now 55, and they are not being replaced. When considering specialised driving jobs like picking up cattle from farms, the situation is already dire.

In summary, the Australian food industry is faced with a series of significant challenges that have evolved over a long period. They will not be effectively addressed by industry or public authorities that think in terms of only a four or five year strategic horizon.

Note: this post was first published in the  auManufacturing Linkedin group in December last year.