Dec 31, 2021 | Leadership, Personal Rant
I had not intended to publish another post until 2021 was behind us after the review a few days ago.
However, the decision of national cabinet yesterday, coupled with today’s Covid numbers changed my mind.
In the back of my memory is an early Monty Python sketch.
Two characters discussing the very disturbing rise in murders, and what should be done. One finally suggests that murder be made legal, end of the problem with murder rates and associated public outrage.
Yesterday our politicians ‘led’ by #scottyfrommarketing decided to change the definitions of what constitutes a ‘Close contact’. While the definitions and consequences have varied across states to date, they are now consistent, and will reduce the number of tests, and therefore the number of cases of Covid reported.
Problem solved?
Not as such.
Perhaps the political problem has been massaged, but Covid has not gone away. The collective memory of Australians will be that once again, politicians have, if not lied, then creatively massaged numbers to make black look a bit more like white.
It is Ok to acknowledge that this pandemic has become endemic, and despite all the science at our disposal, we are stumped, for the moment. That admission however tacitly concedes that people will become sick, and some, particularly the old and in some way vulnerable, will die. Not a good election promise.
The header graph is NSW covid cases to December 29th. The 30th, yesterday was 21,151 and today, the 31st will be added tomorrow, January 1, 2022. Probably not a good beginning to the year.
Yesterday’s 21,151 came from 148,410 swabs, a 14.3% infection rate. This is a number that very recently would have induced political panic, now it is just a number to be massaged.
I wonder what the gagged scientists think of the massaging?
Have a good, and distanced, new years eve celebration.
Dec 29, 2021 | Marketing, Small business, Strategy
At the end of the year, it seems sensible to have a look at the posts that generated the most traffic. Surprisingly, none are posts that have gone up in this most challenging year, not an outcome I anticipated. This demonstrates the long-term value of a blog of this nature. Collecting and curating ideas and perspectives over a long period becomes an investment, certainly for me as the writer, and hopefully for those who choose to follow, or just dip in from time to time.
In order, from the most viewed, the 10 were:
5 key factors to consider when planning your budgeting process. January 2020.
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-2sN
This post was the first of 2020, and did generate some traction early on. However, in the early parts of 2021, when suddenly businesses had to rethink their budgeting processes in the face of Covid it took off. It will no doubt kick along again in the early part of 2022, which is unlikely to be much more predictable than the year just finishing.
3 essential pieces of the supermarket business model. November 2014.
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-1pd
First published way back in 2014, this post has been number one or two in the most read posts every year since. Clearly the elements of the supermarket business model retain an abiding interest. Retail is also the core of my corporate experience, now 25 years behind me. Many of the illustrative stories in these pages come from that time, as the lessons are timeless. The tools have changed, the behavioural foundations remain very consistent. Even amongst the massive switch to online retailing in the past year, the foundations of retailing have remained consistent. The pace has increased geometrically, and the logistics are new, but the basic requirement for success, to add value to the consumer, remains exactly as it was.
The 4 dimensions of project planning. August 2017.
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-1Gz
Every business is a mass of individual and group projects of various types and importance. This post offers a framework to consider when going about the planning processes. Planning is another form of predicting the future, and as we know, that is not a reliable process. However, planning ensures you are better prepared than just relying on being reactive as circumstances change. As Eisenhower noted just before the Normandy landings in 1944 ‘In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable’
The 5 strategic dimensions of price. October 2018.
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-2ba
To my mind, this is one of the more important posts I have written amongst the 2100 over 13 years. How to set and maintain optimum price is a challenging, even confronting task, too often not given the strategic importance it deserves. After all, every added dollar of revenue you can extract from the marketplace falls straight to the bottom line, and it is the one driver of profitability over which management has absolute control. It is one of a number of posts around price that are in the archives.
A marketer’s explanation of Net Present Value. February 2018
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-20v
Net Present Value, or NPV, is an accounting term thrown around with gay abandon by accountants, assuming everyone understands what it means. Over the years, very few marketers I have known had a clear understanding of NPV. Hopefully, this post helped some in those conversations with their accounting peers, trying to get their own back for all the jargon marketers habitually use, by using a bit of their own.
A private note to the chairman. April 2013
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-10x
This one was a surprise. It is an old post from 2013 that paraphrases a conversation I had with the chairman of an organisation on whose board I sat at the time. We had failed to agree for some time over a series of questions that could be characterised as the priority list against which the board should have been making resource allocation decisions for management to execute. At the time I was pretty fired up, and subsequently resigned the role. On rereading the post, I would not resile from any of the items listed, and would offer the same advice were I to be in a similar situation again.
How to wield Occam’s Razor to build robust strategy. June 2016.
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-1Rd
Occam’s Razor seems to have become a bit fashionable recently which is perhaps why this post got a guernsey in the top ten, after languishing with the ‘also-rans’ for 5 years. The advice however is sound, seeking the simplest possible explanation that fits all the facts, no matter how unexpected it may be. In a complex and volatile world, simplicity is one the hardest things to achieve.
Classic Marketing Strategy: Before and After. September 2016.
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-1Il
The title says it all. Marketing is about delivering a value proposition to those who may engage and make a purchase. Showing how the outcome of the purchase delivers a positive outcome has always been, and will always be a powerful way to communicate. I used myself as the example, having just had a couple of ‘headshots’ to replace the one I had been using, which was ‘homemade’. It might be time for an update, although the years and inactivity of Covid have not done me any favours.
Problem solving continuum. June 2010.
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-k3
This post was a very early one, proposing the idea that every problem sits somewhere on a continuum that describes the way in which management goes about finding and executing a solution. At one end workarounds are common, to the other end where difficult problems are subjected to continuous improvement processes. There is much more that could be said, and a number of subsequent posts addressed some of these items, but given the interest, this idea will receive greater consideration in 2022.
The 7 mental models for Successful marketing. June 2017.
https://wp.me/p5fjXq-1Rw
This 10th inclusion reflects on a very personal experience that highlighted to me the simple fact that while the tools of marketing have changed radically over the last decade, the foundations have not changed at all. It is one of the longer posts in the archives, running to almost 3,000 words, and includes an audio version delivered at a small business seminar tagged on the end.
To those who have followed, commented, or just ‘dipped in’ occasionally, I extend my thanks, and hope that you continue to draw some value from my musings.
Have a great 2022, it can only be better than 2021.
Dec 24, 2021 | Change, Governance, Leadership
The PM has made an absolute mess of it, bouncing from one headline to another like a clown on speed. You must give credit for the energy, pity it is expended on trivialities rather than tackling the big questions.
The government has changed tack in the face of the coming election, they cannot any longer claim to be the better fiscal managers of the economy, better husbanding our tax money in the face of the huge deficit, largess to corporations under job keeper who did not need or qualify for it, and the massive pork barrels rolled out over the past few years. $1.9 billion to government seats, while labour held seats received $530 million. The most recent report being a review of 19,000 grants in a ratio grossly favouring government seats published by the SMH. The one I live in, the marginal seat of Reid in Sydney, has received $14.8 million, so the member will be crowing about how effective she has been. To be fair, she does seem to have been a smart and engaged local member with an impressive academic and community engagement resume, as well as a solid foundation of common sense. The neighbouring seat of Grayndler, held by the opposition leader, in at least as needy a place as Reid, received $718,000. Will it be enough to save Reid for the Liberal party? Who knows, but amongst my peers it is the solid view that a vote for an effective and moderate local member is also a vote for an ineffective, narrow minded, spin driven and vindictive Prime Minister. If this is the state of governance in an area with publicly available information, heaven knows the mess that those areas, increasingly protected from public view, is in.
In March the Royal Commission into Aged care dropped onto the table, detailing a chronically under-governed industry making the privatised providers a fortune at the expense of the most vulnerable amongst us. It is a wrangle between the feds who regulate aged care, and the States who fund it, nobody carries responsibility. On top of the deaths that occurred in Victoria from Covid mismanagement, it is surprising that this has been wiped off public awareness. It is an ongoing disgrace. Perhaps it is the result of the monumental cock-up the feds made of the vaccine rollout in the early part of the year, and the wrangling the went on amongst the states that has wiped the Commission’s findings from public condemnation.
There was a gabfest in Glasgow, which seemed to be useful, apart from the lack of contribution made by Australia. Sadly, the PM made his ground-breaking presentation outlining ‘The Australian way’ to a packed house of a cleaner, sound recordist and journalist who copped the ‘dog watch’ and was probably asleep. Even the hecklers were too disinterested to show. I continue to find the contrast between the reliance on the science in relation to Corona, and the total dismissal of the science in relation to the reality of climate change, a complete mystery.
Then, just as we thought the worst was over, along comes Omicron, and once again, we are caught with our heads up our arses. My old dad used to say everyone made mistakes, but only a retard made the same one twice. The federal leadership must all be retards by that measure.
At the state level, there has been wholesale leadership change in NSW, and it has become very clear that premiers vowing to keep their states sovereign is a winning strategy. I conclude that the winning is only because of the total leadership vacuum coming from Canberra.
The Covid battle, seemingly being won towards the end of the year, has suddenly in December been put back on the agenda, this week blowing up with record cases being identified. The emergence of this new, hyper-spreadable omicron version may yet force punitive action to again stamp on human beings doing what they need to do for their own psychological well-being, congregate and communicate in person. As I write this on Christmas Eve, new Covid cases are comfortably over 5,000 a day, a level that a month ago would have induced panic amongst NSW politicians, but now seems rather ho-hum.
Rorts have become so common, they are almost ignored by the media and voters, apart probably from that modest percentage of voters who are deeply engaged and angered in the process. There have been plenty to pick from. Almost $300 million given to Australia’s largest companies who actually increased earnings during the lockdown seems just so wrong. Another 6.2 billion was forked out to businesses with more than 10 million in turnover that did not meet the 30% fall in turnover threshold in the first 6 months of the scheme. Meanwhile, small businesses are closing, and those in the arts, a foundation of our cultural life are left to their own devices. Despite the faults and rorts, the money pumped into the economy has been essential, and cushioned the Covid induced fall in activity that happened.
The ‘Merde massive’ perpetrated by the government unilaterally tearing up the submarine contract then lying about the circumstances leading up to, it leaves Australia looking like an unreliable partner. Not much antidote to our trade problems there, coming as they do on top of the idiotic rattling of our tiny sabre towards our biggest trading partner China. Let’s hope they are sufficiently gentlemanly to hold off until we have our new subs, about the time my granddaughter will be retiring.
What about the leadership wrangling in the junior government partner, the National party, giving us Barnaby back as deputy PM. Clearly, Barnaby and the usual PM can barely stand to be in the same room, not a recipe for good governance. Nobody seems to like the Nats, outside of the few seats they manage to hold, which I suspect will be subject to aggressive independent focus in the lead up to the next election. Speaking of which, many of the sensible moderates in the liberal party will be up against it, as they struggle to publicly support climate policies they must privately consider no better than wishful thinking by a few recalcitrant nig-nogs.
Amongst all this, the Liberal Government discovered belatedly that the culture in and around parliament house stank. In fact, it stinks so much that in any other workplace, executives would be fitted for striped suits and shipped off for an extended holiday at public expense. This has been very inconvenient in the early stages of an election runway for some time early in 2022. However, the PM is making the supreme effort to put it all behind him as he massages messages, and the truth. I wonder if the report, promised to be public, commissioned by the PM from his departmental secretary investigating the accusation of rape in the defence ministers office will ever see the light of day? I guess not.
More broadly, despite the covid induced trading environment, property prices in Sydney and Melbourne have gone mad. Lots of people taking advantage of the historically low interest rates, ignoring the consideration of what happens when interest rates go up. The reserve bank governor after reassuring us they will stay low for several more years has recently softened his language. This leads to a conclusion that we will see them creep upby the middle of next year, which could lead to a middle-class bloodbath. Please note, I am absolutely unqualified to make this prediction, but common sense does dictate an increase soon.
Meanwhile, Small Business struggles to generate revenue, pay wages, and keep the place going. A quick look around most shopping areas at the closed retail outlets, and industrial parks at the locked factory units will tell you how well that is going.
The war (or was it another ‘police action’?) in Afghanistan is over. Pity about those Afghans left there, particularly the reviled Hazaras who are paying a high price for our so called ‘principles’. Australia played its part in the deception of those in the region, and ourselves, right from the beginning of the mess when President Bush decided to punish Al Qaeda after 9/11 2001, and invaded Iraq. The excuse was the non-existent WMD, which had nothing to do with 9/11. We ended up 20 years later with an ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan after massive expenditure of gold and more importantly, lives.
The Americans managed to get rid of their President in the November 2020 elections, with Biden taking over in January, but not before the US Capitol was subjected to scenes reminiscent of a coup in some South American backwater. The dangerous sniping from the sidelines by Trump continues unabated, but it appears to me that fewer beyond the rotten heart of the republican party are taking notice every day.
Division throughout the developed world has seen the rich get richer and the gap widening to all the rest over the last 12 months. Social media has played a role in this, and the backlash will lead to regulation of some type. In the US, Congress is starting to consider how they go about this. Problem is, very few of them have the foggiest idea, so the potential for stupidity is substantial. Europe has had a try, but the GDPR (General Data protection Regulation) regulations have not slowed down the rates of ‘anti-social’ material by much, largely because the main platforms are US owned. Australia’s pathetic attempt to fund journalism becoming law in February by forcing social platforms to pay for news content, has just helped News Corp to fatten its bottom line. Facebook demonstrated its contemptuous corporate power by shutting down in Australia for a day, reminding everyone that they were the biggest bully in the playground. This dog is best repealed, quickly, and replaced by some sensible measures drawn up with the public interest in mind.
Supply chains around the world have been ripped apart. If you can get a container delivered to Sydney or Melbourne it will cost you 4 to 5 times what it cost a year ago. Imported finished products and raw materials are in short supply, and prices have skyrocketed. There is a real possibility our trucks will stop progressively in the absence of AdBlue, an additive made from urea, an ingredient in fertiliser. Australia’s only producer Incitec Pivot is closing its Brisbane factory because they cannot get a reliable gas supply, ironic given Australia is the biggest supplier of LNG into the world market. China makes 83% of the world’s supply of urea, and needs it in the domestic industry, so no more exports, and the rest of us can get stuffed. This is an example of economic power being wielded by what is on some measures already the biggest in the world, and on target to be the biggest on all measures within a year or two. This assumes that the fragile Chinese financial system does not crash, that an economy controlled by a central power can defy the laws of economics as we currently understand them. Russia failed 40 years ago in a similar experiment, but I suspect the Chinese are smarter, and have learnt the lessons of history.
I have missed a lot; it has been a busy and eventful year despite the successive lockdowns. Let me know what the two or three things you felt were most important to you.
I have tried to think of good things that happened, thought I would leave them to the end. Well, here I am, at the end, and I cannot think of any. Must be some, help me here.
In any event, have a safe and merry Christmas, and come back in 2022 looking for some improvement personally, professionally, and in our communities.
Thanks for reading, commenting, and sharing this year, or even if this is the first dose, make it the first of many.
Merry Christmas, and have a great 2022, a low bar to be better than 2021
Allen.
Dec 20, 2021 | Change, Operations
Some great minds have worked in increasing the performance of management.
Einstein is one of them, although may not have known it when he said: ‘Everything should be made as simple as possible, and no simpler’.
Along the same lines, 20 years later Einstein’s mate Peter Drucker said a similar thing: ‘Much of what we call management consists of making it hard for people to work’
Never was a truer word said about the machinations and genuflections usually necessary to get anything done in any organisational bureaucracy.
Organisations evolved to give us leverage, no one person can build something as simple and today basic as a computer mouse. There is a huge pool of people who all contribute from the electronics to the physical formation and design of the thing. This pooling of resources allows us to scale. This is not a new phenomenon. We have been complicating our lives since we moved away from subsistence family level groups. This classic genealogy of a pencil: ‘I, Pencil’ by Leonard Reed was written in 1946, well after we started complicating our lives by fragmenting and specialising tasks to achieve scale.
The down sides are real.
The added transaction costs in scaling operations, necessary to manage all the divergent and disparate jobs that need to be done, go largely unreported. As a result, they linger like a fart in an elevator, making life a bit more complex and often unpleasant.
The basis of all the thinking that has been labelled ‘Lean’ is flow, a necessary pre-condition to profitable scaling.
How do you get things to flow, to manage to the constraints of the value stream, thereby focussing attention on the constraints in some sort of order to be able to address them progressively in the most productivity delivering manner.
Achieving flow is akin to deep cleaning the elevator. It removes the lingering residue of people creating friction, making life more complicated than it needs to be.
Dec 15, 2021 | Leadership, Management
What happens if you are on the receiving end of negative feedback during a debate, or an ‘executive heckle’ during a presentation?
How do you respond?
Our natural reaction is to push back, to defend your position, which creates friction and ‘heat’.
That is what happens when you respond to a negative proposition with ‘Yes but’. You are setting yourself apart from the questioner, defending an alternative position.
By contrast, had you responded to the heckler with ‘Yes and’: what you have just done is agree with the heckler, at least partially, and then been able to move onto the reasons why it is an ‘and’
This subtle but fundamentally important distinction was brought home to me years ago. I was in a running debate with the MD of a conglomerate to whom I reported as GM of a division at EBIT. I had taken over as the GM after 5 years as Marketing manager, running the logistics, and part of the sales in my spare time. It had been turned around from a disaster into a commercially aggressive, successful and profitable entity.
The MD’s latest ‘brain-fart’ at the time was to incorporate the division into the much larger core division of the company. The much larger division was monolithic, and relatively unprofitable, lacking the innovation, commercial skills, and ‘can do’ culture of our much less bureaucratic smaller division. The MD’s view was that an amalgamation would bring to the larger division the commercial hard edge of its smaller cousin, thus making the larger entity more responsive.
My view expressed strongly was that to amalgamate the smaller division into a larger division would kill the very culture that had been built which made the smaller division successful. There were better ways to address the problems of the larger division than risking smothering the culture of the smaller one.
It was a debate I lost, and resulted in me leaving a short time later, rather unceremoniously.
With the great benefit of hindsight, and from experience gained in the almost 30 years since, what I should have done instead of saying ‘yes but’, and having the argument, which I was certain to lose, was to say ‘yes and’ agreeing that the problems of the larger division were real and needed fixing. I could have then suggested creative and practical solutions to the problems. Instead, I unknowingly chose to lose the argument.
It still may not have worked, but the odds would have moved dramatically into my favour. However, at about 40 years old, and having been given the responsibility of running the business, almost my perfect job, I was too self-unaware and perhaps arrogant to acknowledge the inevitable failure of the path I unwittingly chose to argue the case.
Simple and subtle changes of words can have a profound impact on the response they bring.
