Nov 13, 2024 | Branding, Innovation, Strategy
One of the five costs in your business, in most cases, under recognised, under managed, and misunderstood, is Opportunity cost.
Doing A, means we cannot do B.
It is not always such a binary choice.
Opportunity cost is impossible to calculate with any precision, as it is forecasting the outcome of something you did not do, an opportunity forgone. It is however a critical component of any consideration of the manner in which the available capital of a business is deployed.
It is also driven by the strategy, which is another calculation of the shape of the future, and how you can optimise the leverage your resources deliver.
Commonly used models like discounted cash flows and the more demanding internal rate of return calculations are commonly used by accountants to make the choices between differing capital allocation options. Unfortunately, they both rely on cash forecasts, which are at best fragile. When the strategy calls for ‘innovation’ cash forecasts are usually over-optimistic, and the timing is wrong, so that beyond a ‘pin the tale on the donkey’ analysis, often grossly misleading. Such techniques favour doing more of the same, with at best incremental improvements. Deploying capital towards riskier uses means these calculations are less and less valid, putting off the risk averse amongst management, which is most of them.
We have a fantastic example facing us right now.
Intel used to be the dominating producer of semiconductors. ‘Intel inside’ remains one of the best known and respected brands around, and yet, Intel has fallen radically from grace.
Since the glory days, when they dominated the market, and had customers lining up to place orders years in advance, they are now struggling for relevance. The value of the business as reflected in the share market has plummeted, along with their market share in a market that continues to explode in volume and value.
Arguably, Intel should still be in the position now held by Nvidia, current market cap 3.64 trillion, and rising like a kite in a hurricane. Intel, while still worth over a billion dollars, is small by comparison.
Any calculation of the opportunity cost of strategic choices made in the past by Intel would make shareholders kick their cats. Intel delivered astronomical profitability resulting from then CEO Andy Gove making the choice to move away from memory chips and pioneer the semiconductor market. The emergence of the PC in the 90’s made Intel one of the biggest and most profitable businesses ever seen. They then missed the move to chip sets designed to enhance gaming, which doubled as the enablers of the exploding AI market.
At least Intel shareholders can feel better, as the missed opportunity club is a very large one, with some distinguished members.
Note: the graph in the header is the Intel stock price. $1 in 2000 is now worth $1.83 adjusted for inflation. In other words, the current year low price of $19/share is worth just over $10 in 2000 dollars after inflation. This is in a market Intel used to dominate, and that has exploded over the last 5 years, with Nvidia grabbing the chocolates. That is the opportunity cost intel has suffered.
Nov 4, 2024 | Branding, Marketing
There is a big difference between a customer who always chooses your brand because they genuinely love it, and one who may prefer it as one of a group of acceptable products, but picks you just because of a good deal.
A truly loyal customer will choose your brand without thinking twice.
They come back because they trust your quality, your service, their emotional connection for one reason or another, and what your brand stands for. Price becomes irrelevant.
Working from home, good coffee is a crucial part of my morning routine.
I usually buy a specific brand to feed the habit, but only when it is on special.
The ‘standard’ shelf price is close to $40 per kilo, but on special, you can find it around $22. I tend to buy ‘pantry stock’ when it is on special to ensure I do not run out. On occasions I have run out, I switch to other brands, usually ones I am familiar with, on special at around that ‘special floor price’ of $22-25.
If asked in a research group to name my Favorite brand, it would be XXXX. Asked which I most often used, the answer would be the same. As a result, I would be classed as a ‘Loyal’ user. However, this is less the behaviour of a ‘Loyal’ user than one who simply has a preference and shops accordingly. The aggressive price discounting has established my perception of what it costs per kilo for a quality coffee I will enjoy. It is up to $25, not the $40 that is the nominated ‘usual’ shelf price.
The choice is driven by availability and price rather than loyalty, although I would be classed as ‘loyal’.
The power of the retail gorillas, and relative weakness of their suppliers have served over time to drive this gap between ‘normal’ shelf price and a promotional price that has become a category floor.
In the process it has killed brand loyalty. Dead.
Retailers make their money from the ‘rent’ suppliers pay in many forms for the shelf space, and thus access to consumers. The cash from the tills is the cream.
Suppliers over the last 30 years have made a rod for their own backs that is only getting heavier. They have forgotten the difference between brand loyalty and brand preference. They allowed retailers to dictate the split of available investment in their revenue generation activities.
There is a huge difference strategically between brand building activity, driving a consumer to take a product off the retail shelf because it best fills their personal requirements, and in store sales activation.
Suppliers to FMCG have forgotten that key driver of long term success. They have collectively taken the easy way out, and kicked the can down the road.
Nov 1, 2024 | Branding, Customers, Marketing
Imagine you’re at a bustling cocktail party.
The room is filled with chatter, each person vying for attention.
Now, picture your company in that room. How do you make sure it’s the one everyone remembers?
That’s where positioning comes in.
What is Positioning?
Positioning is like choosing the perfect spot at that party, and being interesting enough to attract others into your conversation. It’s not about changing who you are, but about how you present yourself to leave a lasting, positive, and compelling impression. In the business world, it’s about carving out a distinct place in your customers’ minds.
Think of it this way: When I say “safety,” you might think “Volvo.” When I say, “overnight delivery,” “FedEx” might pop into your mind. That’s not by accident – it’s careful positioning at work.
Why Does It Matter?
In today’s crowded marketplace, being good isn’t enough. You need to be memorable. Positioning helps you cut through the noise and stick in people’s minds.
Remember, your customers don’t care about all the features your team has painstakingly built. They care about how those features solve their problems or improve their lives. Positioning is about highlighting that connection.
How Does It Work?
Positioning isn’t just a catchy slogan or a clever ad campaign. It’s a strategic framework that guides everything from product development to sales pitches. Here’s how you can make it work for your company:
- Find Your Niche: Even if it’s small, being a leader in a specific category is powerful. It’s better to be a big fish in a small pond than a minnow in the ocean. However, like everything, there is a limit. There may be a niche in the market, but you had better make sure there is a market in the niche.
- Simplify Your Message: In the world of positioning, less is more. Aim to “own” a word or concept in your customers’ minds. Make it easy for them to understand and remember what you stand for.
- Align with Customer Needs: Your positioning should resonate with your target market’s specific needs and expectations. A product that seems irrelevant to one group might be a game-changer for another if positioned correctly.
- Create a Mental ‘Box’: Help customers categorize your product or service. If they can’t quickly grasp what you offer, you’ve already lost them.
- Be Flexible: As markets shift and your company evolves, be ready to adapt your positioning. What worked yesterday might not work tomorrow.
Putting It into Practice
Imagine your company has just developed a new line of double-glazed windows and doors. Instead of listing all the technical specifications, you might position them as the solution to high energy bills in harsh Australian climates. Suddenly, you are not just selling windows and doors, you are selling comfort, savings, and style.
This positioning would then guide everything from how your R&D team refines the product to how your sales team pitches it. Effective positioning creates a coherent story that resonates across all departments and customer touchpoints.
The Bottom Line
As CEO, think of positioning as your strategic compass.
It is not what you say about your product, it is what your customers believe about it that counts.
When done right, positioning:
- Gives customers a clear reason to choose you over competitors.
- Aligns your entire organization towards a common goal.
- Makes your marketing more effective and efficient.
Remember, in the crowded marketplace of ideas and products, it’s not the loudest voice that wins. It is the one that resonates most clearly with its audience.
That’s the power of positioning.
What position do you want your company to occupy in your customers’ minds?
Answer that challenging question, and you will have taken the first step towards market leadership.
Sep 30, 2024 | Branding, Marketing
Pareto’s 80:20 principle applies universally, though its proportions vary across markets and circumstances. While media choices have proliferated over the past 25 years, the core drivers of consumer behaviour remain largely unchanged. However, brand loyalty has eroded as information became ubiquitous, and price promotions ‘trained’ buyers to prioritize ‘value,’ often misinterpreted as the lowest price available.
In Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) markets, the Pareto curve is typically flatter than in Business-to-Business (B2B) sectors. The rise of house brands has further flattened this curve, resulting in a significant percentage, often a majority of sales, occurring at discounted prices.
The work of the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute has refined Pareto’s rule into the ’20:30:50′ rule. This suggests that the heaviest 20% of buyers contribute around 50% of total purchases, the middle 30% account for 30%, and the lightest 50% of buyers account for 20% of purchases.
Market variations significantly impact purchase behaviour, influencing marketing strategies. For example, household laundry detergent is a category with near-universal penetration but relatively low purchase frequency, driven by household size and composition. In contrast, the disposable diaper market has low penetration but high purchase frequency among households with babies.
The choice of media, weight of media, and the nature of the message delivered will vary significantly between these two different categories. This is before considering the different behaviours and preferences of individual buyers in these markets.
These complex and interrelated success factors are often overlooked by amateur marketers, but are always considered by experienced professionals.
Sep 16, 2024 | Branding, Communication
‘Marketing’ & ‘Communication’ are two words that should not be compounded. They have entirely different meanings.
The confusion of meaning amongst quasi marketers is the beginning of wasted marketing budgets. It is also the source of much of the dumb rubbish clogging up the digital pipes.
Following are 4 strategies to increase effectiveness.
Define the objective of the communication.
What seems to happen here is that the tactics become confused with the objectives. This is not about optimising your website, or deciding whether or not to use Facebook ads, it is about creating the outcomes you want. Create demand for a product, generate awareness of the company, attract funding, and many others may be the objectives of a marketing investment, but they are not the tools for implementation. Lack of clarity of objectives, time frame, and performance metrics, is a basic marketing sin. I always advocate for a SMART framework.
Who is the audience?
Having figured out why you are communicating, the obvious next step is who you need to communicate with. Who is your ideal customer, and who do you need to engage to generate a transaction?
Your ideal customer may be hospitals with specialist surgical services. A relatively specific ideal customer, but inside that customer, there are those who sign the order, engineers who assess regulatory compliance, accountants who have control over budgets, and the medical staff who use the product. All have different concerns and motivations, and all require differing communications. Understanding the audiences, crafting messages and selecting the channels by which they will be delivered should be second nature.
What does your audience want and need to hear?
Often these are two different communications. They may want to hear about the prices and delivery times, but they need to hear about the regulatory status, availability, and detailed specifications of the range of options being presented to them.
Your task is to clearly communicate what it is you are offering, the benefit it delivers, and why they should care, along with presenting a call to action that is compelling.
How do you communicate?
What is the tone of the messages, and how do you reach the target is the oldest marketing challenge in the book.
Every successful marketing communication is in some form a story. Do you use drama, comedy, a villain, testimonial, or do you use an academic approach to the copy? This even applies to the blazing headline of a huge price reduction, where that is the only thing in the ad. Even that tells a story to those that see it.
What media is used, newspapers, magazines, social platforms, direct mail, email, digital advertising, face to face? In most cases it will be some combination of these, and many other options available to deliver messages.
While writing this post, it was constantly in my mind that ‘everyone knows this stuff’ and ‘nobody out there needs to be told, again, how to suck eggs’.
However, the weight of crap I see floating across the web, and sadly into my inbox, unsolicited, told me otherwise.
I am confident nobody reading this needs to hear it again, but perhaps you could share it to your less enlightened comrades.
If you want to get noticed, lift your game!
Header illustration via DALL-E in 5 seconds.
Apr 2, 2024 | Branding, Change, retail
The retail landscape is changing, even as the two retail gorillas hunker down and set about extracting more from the current model.
Following are a few of the macro trends I see that will continue to erode the current model that has been so successful.
Declining customer loyalty.
I have no numbers, but anecdotally, where in the past you shopped at Coles or Woollies, now you have Aldi, Farmers markets, Costco, Harris Farm, and a range of specialty retailers all competing successfully for the consumers dollar. I no longer know why anyone sees any of the major retailers as ‘their’ store. Loyalty is something that is given in acknowledgement of great service, and the gorillas have failed in that space.
Changing customer habits.
Associated with loyalty, customers are looking for things other than just the lowest price. Increasingly they want product provenance, domestically produced product, they are increasingly sensitive to the ingredient lists, and spurious health claims. This is all happening as the gorillas remove the options from their shelves in the game of short-term margins.
The continued growth of home delivery by the gorillas since Covid gave it a turbo-boost seems here to stay. Interestingly, home delivery also seems to be a useful brand building tool for the gorillas. Anecdotally, consumers tend to stick with one or the other of Coles or Woolies for delivery in greater numbers than they exhibit loyalty when shopping for themselves.
Investment attraction.
Aldi has invested successfully, Costco while going more slowly than expected, appear here to stay, farmers markets have become ‘corporatized’ to some extent, Harris Farm continues to invest, and specialty stores continue to ‘pop up’ although few survive for the long term. It seems that the market is sufficiently big, that with only two major players there is risk capital going in at the fringes, and in the long term, the fringes tend to become mainstream. Looming over all this is the shadow of Amazon, and more generally the move away from the bricks and mortar business model. I was betting a few years ago that the Harris family would cash in and sell to Amazon, a transaction consistent with their strategy in the US. So far, I have been wrong.
More recently, the public and political attention focussed on the gorillas can only have a negative impact on the investment attraction of FMCG retail.
Business model proliferation at the fringes.
While the supermarket model absolutely dominates the current landscape, technology and changing consumer attitudes are enabling evolving business models to compete for the consumers dollar. Two of my neighbours combine to buy meat in bulk direct from a farmer in the Southern highlands. It started as all the meat from a single animal, which meant lots of mince. Recently much of that mince is being made into sausages, and they are experimenting with differing sausage flavours for variety. This proliferation seems to me to be another signpost that change is coming, like it or not.
Margin pressure.
While all this is going on, margins through the supply chain are under increasing competitive pressure. This pressure impacts enormously on the decision making of incumbents, offering niche opportunities to newcomers and new business models to make a case with consumers.
It seems to me that the incumbent retailers are waiting to see what happens. History tells us that this is not an effective strategy. The better course is to shape your future in some way that suits your aspirations. It would be naive to say this was easy, it is excruciatingly hard, which is why so few are able to make the transformations necessary.
I keep on harping about the failure of Woolworths to leverage the start they made with Thomas Dux. To my mind it was a classic strategic mistake to back away.
My conclusion is that the current management culture at both the retail gorillas lacks the courage to explore, be curious, make investments that are separate from the main business, and stick to them in the face of short-term challenges. Instead, they have chosen to hunker down and optimise the current model.
