In 6 months time, when things have sorted themselves out, and we are moving into a post corona world, what will have changed?
It is very hard to imagine, but discounting the potential for some sort of apocalypse, there will be a new normal at some point, but that will look very different to the ‘normal’ of just a few months ago.
Following are a few thoughts, what can you add?
Digital transformation has accelerated.
Necessity is the mother of invention, and a massive catalyst for change. The communication tools that were available but widely resisted have suddenly become the status quo, and we wonder why we were so reluctant.
Items like corporate travel, fancy offices, position in an organisation structure, will all become less important, as they will be seen as a reflection of ego rather than necessity, an ego swept away by corona, as working from anywhere other than a central office becomes more the norm. This transformation in digital communication will act as a catalyst for other changes enabled by new technology.
The role of deep expertise.
Suddenly, the people we trust are those with deep expertise, who do not apparently have a dog in the fight. Scientists have been telling policy makers, and the public for 25 years that climate change is happening, is a huge threat to our way of life, and needs to be addressed. They have been largely ignored. No climate change scientist has been listened to outside their scientific circles sufficiently to drive significant change.
The ‘Bug’ has brought into stark relief the complexity of our world. Interconnected economically, socially, and by a myriad of communication channels, it is not a simple place. We humans like simplicity, and in the face of complexity, revert to existing beliefs as a substitute for consuming the cognitive energy to understand and form new ones. This human tendency has led to the increasing polarisation and emotion of positions taken on a range of public questions, the opposed sides yelling at each other.
Just as suddenly, we have The Chief Health Officer, Professor Brendan Murphy front and centre, providing the scientific expertise to the government to make more general decisions about how to deal with the crisis. I doubt Professor Murphy would offer too many deep economic analyses, he leaves that to others (who may or may not know what they are talking about). However, we trust Professor Murphy, measured, consistent, offering what is obviously deep expertise in a narrow field. You could make similar observations about ABC spokesperson, Dr Norman Swann, probably better known than professor Murphy or his deputy, Professor Kelly. My pinup boy in this regard is American Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) with his deep expertise has been able to correct Trumpian exhortations on the spot, publicly, and keep his job. (perhaps there is hope after all)
Hopefully this new found respect for expertise lasts after the Corona cloud has moved on.
Existential crises become accepted challenges.
Few recognised the potential for this crisis, despite many warnings in the form of SARS, Mars, Swine flu, Ebola, just to name a few on the last decade. The obvious exception is Bill Gates, who predicted exactly what has happened in a TED talk in 2015. However, now it is clear that we have reached a stage where something must be done, the too hard basket has overflowed. Climate change, equality of opportunity, universal health, mass migrations resulting from fundamentalism, and the concentration of economic and military power, will all be back on the economic and political agenda. We will start demanding some action rather than flowery words, and kicking the can down the road for the next lot to deal with. As noted above, we need to listen to the experts.
Dunbar’s number
We will recognise that the 10,000 friends we have on Facebook are as useless as an umbrella in a cyclone, but those few close to us, with whom we have a human relationship of real depth are priceless. The theories of British anthropologist Robin Dunbar will become widely known and understood, as we revert to smaller genuine communities. Perhaps I am a silly optimist, thinking the malignant part of Facebook et al will be restrained, but you can only hope.
Economics and politics
This could be a very long list. Our economic and political systems have been changed forever, there is no going back to PCD (Pre Corona Days), I hope.
While the economy has tanked, and there are dire predictions about how the bill will be paid by our children, and grandchildren, we are still alive, mostly working productively, and things are getting better.
We might even be seeing some advantages as the politics becomes more respectful, both of people and facts, and actually indulging in some forward planning, an element absolutely missing from our body politic since, well, perhaps since the days of Keating and Hawke.
New jobs have been created by small pieces of manufacturing coming back to domesticity, although the unemployment rate is still a number that seemed unimaginable a year ago. We might also have a real number, instead of the nonsense of the definition of ‘Employed’ being an hour of paid work a week, the bureau of Stats taking advantage of the cover offered by the crisis to update the definition.
People my age will have had their superannuation reserves diminished by both the withdrawals necessary to pay the bills, and the tanking of the share market, as well as there being a whole new wave of over 50 unemployed looking for a way to pay the bills. This all means we will be working longer, and there will be a rash of over 50’s entrepreneurial activity, where those previously hide bound corporate types, now unemployed, try their hand at something new.
The government, now saddled with a range of new costs that will become part of the status quo very quickly, will be desperately looking for ways to wind them back. For example, free child care, and a ‘living wage’ will be major topics of political conversation, as they are high on the list of must haves for the political left, but are ‘socialist evil’ in the eyes of the political right. It is always easy to give stuff away, particularly in a crisis as we will have just passed, but extremely challenging to remove that stuff from voters in the lead up to an election, which will by then be on the horizon.
As a community we are now demanding changes to the buck passing that goes on between the states and Feds in relation to who is responsible for what. We are working under a constitution that has served us well, but sensible change that reflects the entirely different environment we are now in, is firmly in the too hard basket. If the Christmas fires did not highlight this enough to force changes, the lunacy of the Ruby Princess, and the subsequent finger pointing should have. It was more than just the everyday political incompetence we have come to expect, it was a gross failure of the governance processes of the nation.
As an additional treat, there is toilet paper and pasta back on supermarket shelves available for purchase whenever we venture out.
Commercial intervention by governments.
The political decisions taken to address the cries for assistance from many large corporate enterprises, will have significant ramifications across the economy as the smoke from the bug clears. The obvious current example is Virgin, currently holding out their hand for a public bailout. However, they will be one of many that are in trouble, and likely to bring all the pressure they can to bear on the public purse, to which many have contributed little over the years, repatriating any profits to tax havens. Beyond all considerations that relate to a particular set of circumstances surrounding an individual enterprise, I think there needs to be a consistent application of policy based on a foundation that articulates a philosophy that reflects the national will and character.
This philosophical foundation has been sadly absent for many years, usurped by short term political expediency, and the resulting disengagement of voters from rational public discourse.
Section 51 of the constitution gives the power to acquire property on just terms from any state or person, over whom the parliament has the power to make laws. Somewhere in there lies a solution, enabling the parliament to acquire the business of such enterprises, but not the company. This would prevent the obvious outcome of a corporate bailout, which in effect subsidises profits by removing part of the risk for which shareholders are paid, while socialising the risk of losses.
Instinctively we may not like the government owning businesses, but it seems to be a better solution than putting money in the pockets of billionaires living in the Bahamas, oil rich potentates and in some cases, dictatorial governments.
Healthcare.
Notwithstanding the comment above relating to public and private responsibilities, the health Minister popped up last Tuesday (March 31) and in effect, and temporarily, renationalised hospitals. Health and its increasing costs has been a thorn in the side and budgets of every government since Bob Hawke’s in the eighties, and getting worse. The financially motivated parties in the health system jockey for a place at the huge and deep trough to the detriment of the community.
Meaningful reform and modernisation has been on the ‘way too bloody hard’ list for 20 years. Now, suddenly when we consider the welfare of sick people, before the dogfight over money, reform becomes easier. Let’s hope some of it has stuck after the smoke cleared.
Unions and government talking constructively.
Who would have seen this coming? Just over a year ago, the current Canberra incumbents won an election by warning us of a socialist apocalypse should Mr Shorten take residence in the Lodge in Canberra, and for weekends, Kirribilli House in Sydney. I can hear Mr Shortens teeth grinding from here, but hopefully the dialogue has continued.
Social distancing.
We have become used to a larger space being ‘ours’ and others will reflexively give it to us to a greater extent than before. There may even be some level of civility re-emerge, and incidents of things like road rage will have reduced.
1st world indulgences
Many of us have what we sometimes laughingly call first world problems, such as not having a choice of three varieties of condiment at the supermarket, or the failure of the nail salon to open before 8.30 am. They have been swept away, and we will recognise them for what they are, indulgences of a privileged society, and they may become less important. In short, simple things will have become more important.
We will all be wiser
The fear and panic that gripped us for those few months of March, April and into May, will be seen as an embarrassing over reaction driven by emotions we are not used to having on general display. We will all assure ourselves that next time should there be one, and we will largely accept that there will be, we will all act more sensibly.
I will look back over the next Christmas break and review these observations, and give my self a mark. As an optimist, I hope a few of them are on the money.
