Economies of technology, not of scale, will be the drivers of success in the future

Economies of technology, not of scale, will be the drivers of success in the future

 

8 years ago I did a research project that required me to have a look at the future of intensive horticulture. As a part of that project I spent a month in the UK looking at what was happening, and was astonished to see the beginning of a production ‘flip’.

Horticulture is relatively intense compared to other forms of farming, but it still required lots of land, water, and labor. In the UK I discovered technology was in the early stages of taking over. Innovators had ‘flipped’ the model and were producing vegetables in capital and IT intensive greenhouses. The day I visited one of the leaders, Barfoots of Botley in 2010, they were completing the commissioning of the first 3 anaerobic digesters  at their main farm in Sussex, using the green waste from produce grown in greenhouses which was already powering the indoor growing beds and packing shed.

In the 8 years since, the progress has been amazing. AeroFarms in the US has attracted significant venture funding, and is one of those changing the face of agriculture by bringing it back to where the population lives, and Barfoots has expanded geometrically.

In Australia we have  very few  examples of this sort of innovation. One is Green Camel farms at Cobbitty on Sydney’s southern outskirts, which has combined greenhouse production of organic herbs and tomatoes with an aquaculture infrastructure producing barramundi in a closed loop system.

The point is that agriculture, like all other industries is being disrupted by technology in ways almost unforeseeable a decade ago.

Technology and capital intensity is replacing scale as the defining feature of success.

Lean Manufacturing seeks ever smaller production runs delivering an even flow of finished product matched to customer demand, as it evolves, eliminating WIP and finished goods inventories while delivering customer specific finished products with minimum lead times.

The days of huge integrated manufacturing plants cranking out product at volume to reduce costs by finding the economies of scale are gone.

Equally, production volumes from thousands of acres of open farmland will be replaced by a vertical capital intensive farm in a disused warehouse somewhere  in the inner city, close to consumers. Bit hard with livestock, but what are feedlots if not capital intensive small footprint farms?

Irrespective of the manufacturing environment, and I see agriculture as just another form of manufacturing, with inputs, WIP, risks, lead times, and all the rest, ‘de-scaled’ manufacturing will become the model our grandchildren will be familiar with. They will probably also be making engine parts in their bedrooms on desktop printers, it will be as normal as CAD software is today.

Header photo: Aerofarms towers

PS. After reading the post, a friend in the business sent me this link to the Panasonic vertical farm in Singapore. The more I dig around, the more convinced I become of the speed and volume of changes about to hit the supply chains of horticulture.

7 Books every marketer should read.

7 Books every marketer should read.

 

I am a voracious reader, have been all my life, all sorts of stuff from fiction, biographies, and books of ideas, to technical journals that challenge me to come to an even basic understanding. Perhaps it is because I am a bit of a dreamer, but also intensely curious, and reading feeds both.

As a management contractor and consultant, reading also gives me the foundation upon which to build the activities I recommend, sometimes implement, and write about incessantly on this blog.

However, there are a very few books that I go back to again and again, some that I read, remember, and refer to from time to time, some that get read and put aside as interesting, and many that do not get finished, as the message is simply not of the interest I assumed from the name, cover blurb and often the endorsements.

When asked which are the ‘go to’ books on the areas in which I practice, strategy, marketing, sales, and business improvement, it is a very small list. These few have added to both the width and depth of my thinking on my area of professional expertise. They are the standouts among a library of terrific books.

‘Influence: The psychology of persuasion’ by Robert Cialdini.

I first read this book probably 25 years ago, and have used the insights it offered ever since as a foundation for all my thinking related to marketing and selling. My current dog eared and scribbled on copy, probably the third or fourth I have had (I tend to lend them, but books are not boomerangs) is again on loan to someone I was trying to help.

 

‘Spin Selling’ by Neil Rackham’

Spin Selling is another oldie but goodie I first read over 20 years ago. There have been thousands of books written on all aspects of the sales process,  and while I have not read anything like all of them, none of those I have read goes even close to laying out the sales process as well as this one. Even in this digital age, nothing like the time when it was written, the principals remain, because they are about human behavior, not just creating a transaction.

 

‘The Goal’ by Eliyahu Goldratt.

The Goal is an unusual book, a text book written as a novel. I first came across it a very long time ago trying to get my head around making operational improvements in a ‘broken’ factory. The lessons in the book have subsequently become entrenched in the writings around the TPS, Lean and 6 Sigma improvement movements around the world.

It is not a marketing book, it is one that describes the improvement challenges in the manufacturing environment we see evolving in front of us, and the means by which those challenges can be met. As such, it is applicable to marketing, which should be as welcoming of continuous improvement as any other process. Besides, it is a good read!

Goldratt is a mathematician, and philosopher who first proposed the mathematical equations that now make up game theory, not a marketer. This makes, again, the point that great marketing always has a quantitative base, if you look hard enough to find it. .

 

‘Team of Teams’ Gen. Stanley McChrystal

I love this book, as it describes the manner in which General McChrystal turned the command and control culture of the US army on its head in the face of fierce opposition in Iraq that did not follow the ‘rules of war’ by which the US army had evolved. It was unthinkable that an apparently disorganised and leaderless bunch of terrorists (or freedom fighters, depending on your perspective) could, and did , render the overwhelming might of the US military redundant. This book provides a blueprint for every organisation to follow as it sets about reconfiguring its activities to meet the challenges of a fragmenting and information rich world.

A very useful addition is a follow up called “One Mission’ written by Chris Fussell, who was McChrystal’s offsider in Iraq, and collaborator in the writing of Team of Teams. It describes how the team of teams methodology has been translated into the world of business.

 

‘Playing to win’ by A.G. Lafley and Roger Martin.

This book builds on the work of Michael Porter, who wrote the seminal book on competitive strategy way back in 1980. There have been libraries written about strategy, how to develop, deploy, manage, and account for it, and some are very good, well known books of great value. None however come close to this book first published in 2013, for a practical and useable model by which to manage the complex strategic processes necessary for success. For me, this model goes hand in hand with Business Model Generation (below) which looks more specifically at designing a business model that will best deliver a strategy.  Both require iteration and deep analysis of your business, its objectives and competitive environment.

 

‘Business Model Generation’ by Alexander Osterwalder.

There has been a slew of offshoots from this book, which presented for the first time the idea of a  ‘Business Model Canvas’. This idea evolved from the work and writing of many scholars and practitioners, especially those involved in the ‘Lean Startup’ movement that evolved into the book of that name written by  Eric Ries.  The Business Model Canvas is  now a tool I use in virtually every strategy assignment as a means to visualise in a simple way all the key components of an effective business model. It is not just for startups, but for every business that is seeking to critically analyse their current and evolving business models, and that should be everyone.

 

‘Pre-Suasion’ by Robert Cialdini.

I bought this book on the basis of ‘Influence’ but quietly wondered what more Dr. Cialdini could possibly say that would add to the depth of his first masterpiece. It is a very recent book, published in late 2016, which I have just finished for the first of what will be many readings. The amazing thing is that so many of the ideas when written down make so much common sense, but I had never really considered them, most being just so ordinary as to escape notice.  This is potentially the most important marketing book of the last 20 years. As marketers struggle with the homogenisation of markets, and increasing challenges of building a brand in the face of customer and media fragmentation, the ideas in this book may make the vital difference between success and failure.

The challenge in compiling such a list is what you leave out. Amongst the piles of dross, there are some gems that deserve your attention. Simon Sineks ‘Start with Why’ upon which his seminal TED talk is based, Stephen Pinkers ‘How the mind Works’, Daniel Kahnemans ‘Thinking fast and Slow, and Ray Dalios ‘Principals’ are just a few.

I still prefer to read a physical book, or journal, in hand. I find it hard to write thoughts as they occur on a screen, and the physical connection is for me, an important element. My view is that so long as you remain curious, and feed the curiosity, you will uncover a few books which for you represent the list you recommend to others. This is just mine.

 

Happy reading!

Header: courtesy Jay Cross via Flikr

 

The ethical underpinning of strategy & marketing is being eroded.

The ethical underpinning of strategy & marketing is being eroded.

 

Marketing is about adding value, finding innovative ways to solve problems.  Sometimes marketers set out to ‘solve’ problems that around the BBQ would be termed a ‘1st world’ problem.

‘Which dog manicurist’ rates in my mind as such a problem, the subject of a conversation I was unfortunately involved in at a local dog park a few weeks ago.

However, sometimes extremes are pushed.

An extreme example perhaps, but the fiasco surrounding breastfeeding at the recent World Health Organisation meeting in Geneva convened in the belief that there was a consensus informed by science to be ratified, shines a light on the ethical challenges we face.

For some, mostly our wives and mothers,  it is a highly emotional question, to breastfeed or not, substituting formula for the real thing. It seems that the 1st world is returning to breastfeeding as the developing world turns to formula, believing it is a sign of maturity, sophistication, something to which they aspire.

To me the answer to breastfeed or not is blindingly obvious.

We evolved as mammals, breastmilk evolved with us, and is therefore uniquely suited to the nurture and development of a baby. The high jacking of breastfeeding by those flogging formula for profit is to my mind an unethical, indeed immoral act of marketing strategy.

Formula is terrific for those who for one reason or another, cannot feed. Back in the day the baby would have either died, or been passed on to  someone who could, a ‘wet-nurse’ for nourishment.

The sight of the WHO being managed by those with an agenda favouring formula for profit over the natural product appals me.

Where has our moral compass been hidden?

Locally, the marketing for profit before ethics brigade have taken over in the financial services industry, insurance, urban development, and a host of other sectors, and we are all the poorer for it.

Bit by bit the fabric of our communities is being ripped apart, the evolutionary power of Dunbar’s number thrown against the wall of technology as the power to communicate and collaborate erodes what made us human in the first place.

Somewhere, somehow we have to find the tipping point, and start to recognise that all that is new is not necessarily good.

 

 

The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect of digital

The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect of digital

 

In the film, Benjamin Button does not age, as those around him do, but he does accumulate the memories and knowledge around him as time passes.

Pretty cool, unless the love of your life is stuck in the present, whatever that is.

For years we have recognised the ‘Button Effect’  emerging with brands in the digital age, brands that leverage both sides of the human equation, the so called network effect.

The more it gets used, the more valuable it becomes.

Accountants and accounting standards are confused by this, as all assets depreciate with use.

Not any more!.

Digital products get more valuable with use.

That is why the monsters in the space, Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook combined have the market capitalisation of all but the top few countries in the world at  around $2.5 trillion dollars US.

Staggering stuff.

What makes them so powerful, a position that has been reached in less than 20 years, replacing 100 years of industrial development around the world?

A very few factors seem common to them, and those coming up behind them, particularly the Chinese marketers, Tencent and Alibaba, along with Uber, Netflix, Spotify, and others.

  • They leverage the network effect, becoming the Benjamin Buttons of marketing , becoming more valuable with use
  • They are global, and their products cross cultural boundaries
  • They are in the lead at developing and deploying cutting edge technology, AI, AR, machine learning, whatever you choose to call it, these companies are leading the pack by leveraging behavioural data they collect with use of their platforms.
  • They seem to be inhabited and driven by ‘kids’ younger than my children. ‘Digital natives’ I guess would be the cliché, but none of the drivers of this revolution would be at the top of a 20th century industrial company, they would not have the experience to navigate the hierarchical structures that ran them.

You do not have to be a new age potentially global behemoth to leverage the network  effects available to you. Small businesses everywhere are becoming the Benjamin Buttons of their local markets, but the rules of engagement have changed. What worked for my generation is no longer enough, leveraging the network effects is now an essential ingredient of continuous renewal.

Credit: header photo from the film . 

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

 

My mother lives by herself in a large regional city in NSW. At 90 she is pretty remarkable,  although some of the bits are wearing out, so she has a pharmacological regime that would make your average teenage party-goer green with envy.

Her pills are made up from the actives by a local chemist with the compounding License that allows him to assemble her prescriptions and combine them, which he then delivers weekly in a pack that reflects the changing nature of the prescriptions written by her doctor.

A great service, and the young entrepreneurial pharmacist has the geriatric market in the town sewn up.

I was thinking of him last week when I saw that Amazon had bought US startup Pillpack for almost a billion dollars. As  a result, the share prices of listed pharmacy retailers, Walgreens and others fell into a hole, a now common outcome when Amazon comes around.

Jeff Bezos has long signaled his interest in the pharmacy market, being a part of Drugstore.com in the 90’s which was eventually bought by drug store chain Walgreens for $400 million, and closed down. He has made other investments in various areas of the health industry over a long period, which should have provided an early warning alarm to the incumbents.  More recently he has launched a venture in collaboration with Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan to disrupt the huge but cosey health insurance market.

I can only wonder at the hand wringing going on in the Walgreens board room. They had a decade to build a moat around their business,  but failed to do so, and now the pirate has returned. This is exactly the same mistake Blockbuster made a couple of years later, by dismissing the overtures of Netflicks, and disappeared as a result. By contrast, the young pharmacist in Armidale will be well insulated, and I suspect will have his own plans to keep his business thriving. Meanwhile I suspect the Pharmacy Guild in Australia will again tread the road of trying to use the regulations as a protective mechanism, and try to fight the tide of change, which is ultimately going to fail.

As I have noted before, love him or hate him, Jeff Bezos is changing the world, perhaps like none before him. The incumbent public  and private institutions of our democratic western economy simply seem unable to accommodate the inevitability of the changes and their impact, and show no sign of being able to evolve sufficiently to do so. The assault on the pharmacy market is simply another example of the speed and certainty of change, which without sufficient ‘strategic intelligence’ being applied, will be the end for status quo driven incumbents.

When you need some of that rare strategic intelligence, more focused than is demonstrated in these pages, call me.

 

How ‘Systems Thinking’ should be applied to marketing and governance.

How ‘Systems Thinking’ should be applied to marketing and governance.

We think about marketing reasonably often in business, not often enough, but reasonably often.

However, our thinking is usually muddled, and wrong.

Let me explain.

We think about marketing as if it was a discreet set of actions that can change the fortunes of a business.

The ‘marketing function’ sits alongside sales, production, finance, IT, and the other functional units in a business, that collectively build the success of the business.

Problem is we all see the whole as the sum of its parts, not as an interdependent and related system that is more than the sum of its parts.

Take an engine out of a car, and leave it on the ground. No matter how good the engine, it cannot move itself. It is utterly dependent on the interaction of the other parts of the car to be mobile.

Take the best bits of a range of cars, the BMW engine, Mercedes gearbox, Lotus suspension, Ferrari body shape, the best of the best, and put them together. Logically with all the best bits you will get a superior end result.

Rubbish.

The bits do not fit together in any coherent manner. Individually they may be the best of the best, but together they are little  more than a box of parts.

The whole system is what counts, designing the system from the outside in, not from the inside out.

For some years now I have been referring to the marketing and sales functions together as one function: ‘Revenue Generation’.

While this is better than  the artificial separation into sales and marketing, it is still way short of a system necessary to generate a profit, as that requires the processes that develop, produce and deliver the product to be a part of the system.

We all solve problems from within our own disciplines, that is the way we are trained. We are trained to see a situation from within the confines of the discipline, not from the outside from where we can touch, feel, and see the context.

Outsiders are always better able to see the size and shape of a building than those sitting inside it. Exactly the same as having a knowledgeable and constructively critical thought leader who sits outside your business, looking at the competitive, regulatory  and strategic context in which the business competes for a living.

This was supposed to be the function of a board, outside experts reflecting on the sum of the parts rather than the individual parts, developing strategy to build success for the long term, and seeking optimisation of the assets deployed. Often we seem to fail at that as well, as the outsiders get caught up in the complication and protection of the status quo, and their own position in it, forgetting why they are there in the first place. You only have to observe a little bit of the current Financial Services Royal Commission to see plenty of evidence of that.