When template business plans are useless

When template business plans are useless

Jul 4, 2016 | Change, Innovation, Marketing, Small business

In Australia, only around 5% of new businesses survive past the 5 year mark, and make money in excess of the cost of capital.

Scary, because most of them had a business plan, certainly if they ever borrowed any money from a bank, they had one that probably doubled as a door stopper.

50 pages of assumptions, rosy projections and financial outcomes delivered via by a suite of complex excel files to the wazoo. It is essential to recognise that the purpose of a business plan of the lender is to ensure that they get their money back with interest commensurate with the risk, and to weed out the dreamers. That is why banks insist on Directors personal guarantees, mortgages over personal assets, simply to ensure that you do not risk their money.

So much for business plans.

Seriously, why would you waste the time and energy?

Most start with what they think is a great product, without realising that a product is just the starting point.

You also need at least a hypothesis about who the customers are, how you will find them, what sort of prices they may pay, how do you deliver the product, what the competitive reaction might be, and on, and on, and on.

Finding a way to turn all this stuff into a business model that makes sense is challenging, but it is what turns a product idea into a business.

A traditional, templated business plan makes sense when there are a lot of knowns, there is an existing market, ruling prices, you know who and where the customers are, and how they might be reached, and there is not much going on. Then plan to deploy resources for productivity and efficiency, but this is rarely the situation with start-ups with an innovation to bring to the market.

Being an entrepreneur setting about marketing a product with few direct competitors is experimental, requiring iteration, practice, persistence, and preferably mentoring from someone who has been there, seen the traps and is able to navigate around at least some of them.

Planning for the unknown is a touch different from planning for the known.

 

 

Required understanding if you are to succeed

Required understanding if you are to succeed

Jun 6, 2016 | Change, Governance, Strategy

Mary Meeker has again produced a report that should be required reading for all who seek to engage with an audience, with the 2016 update of the Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers Internet trends report.

Disregard the previous statement.

It should not be required reading, it should be required understanding.

The 213 slides are filled with data driven insights, some with scary implications for the laggards, and offering some ideas for what is about to come. Ms. Meeker delivers the 213 slides in 20 minutes, no time to dig the detail, she is delivering a series of trends, and leaving the deck for you to ponder the implications and dig where you wish.

  • At some point, Google will set about increasing the returns on the investments so far in the Android operating system, now it has +80% share of mobile systems. Astonishing numbers as Apple is still making all the money.
  • Digital advertising is exploding, but the share of legacy media is way greater than it should be. Mobile advertising is particularly underweighted. However, the use of ad blockers is also exploding, so the creative challenge is a huge one. While it is not in this report, I have seen others that estimate the amount of digital advertising fraud at over 30%, and I suspect that is on the light side. Add in the fact that many advertisers just translate their TV ads into something digital and you will find billions more being wasted.
  • Hyper-targeting of advertising is a fact of life now, privacy be dammed. Strange thing is that our kids, and grandkids are way less sensitive to this that we digital geriatrics who make many of the decisions.
  • Video is exploding, in all its forms, particularly live streaming, and all on mobile. We always knew we are a visual species, but digital is opening an entirely new door to communication, and we have barely had time as yet to make a rudimentary exploration.
  • There is a whole section on China in the report, and the numbers are astonishing. Uber is extolled as one of the poster boys of the exponential growth enabled by the double sided platforms emerging, so look at slide 181 to see how the growth in China dwarfs the growth in other markets. This is just emblematic of  the digital growth occurring in China and across the Asia Pacific generally, with the exception of Australia, that struggles to deliver upload speeds that would embarrass Nigeria. (In the middle of an election campaign, perhaps this is something that should get an airing? Perhaps not, a bit embarrassing for both sides)
  • The last 20 or so slides concentrate on the implications for business. Read and understand, then take some positive action. The only thing you know for sure is that staying still  is not good enough.

Thanks Mary, and crew!

Another run for a hobby horse

Another run for a hobby horse

Jun 3, 2016 | Change, Marketing, Sales

‘Account Based Marketing’ or ABM is rapidly becoming the latest three letter acronym to which all and sundry seem to be hooking their horses.

All sorts of learned crap is being published,  assuring me that ABM is the way forward, so I just googled it, 39.5 million responses.

I always thought that serving key and strategically important customers, the core of ABM, was what successful marketing and sales had always been about.

Must be deluded?

20 years ago as a newly minted consultant hanging out my shingle after a successful corporate career, one of my first products was what I called ‘SKAM’.

While it always got a laugh when I put it up, the acronym stood for “Strategic Key Account Management”.

Having now had a look at some of the ABM stuff coming out, they have done little beyond update the technology and call something that is core to sales and marketing success by another name. Then because they are calling it something new, try and flog it to unsuspecting and perhaps intellectually compromised people with too much money and perhaps not enough experience to understand what marketing really is all about.

Too snarky?

Perhaps, but it is this sort of nonsense that gives those of us who are thinking about this stuff, and have been for a long time, a bad name.

Those who read my musings regularly will know I have a corral full of hobby horses which I let out for a run occasionally. This is one of those occasions, so forgive my rant, but it is fun, and it is my blog!

The greatest failure of marketing management.

The greatest failure of marketing management.

Jun 2, 2016 | Change, Leadership, Lean, Marketing

 

The headline is a big call, competing as it does with some real doozies.

Remember “New Coke” or the Ford ‘Edsel‘ or perhaps Thomas Watsons declaration that there was a world market of no more than 5 for computers?

This one is a general observation on the nature of marketing people generally and their project management skills, at least in my experience.

They tend to spend too little time really defining a problem, but then jump effortlessly to a conclusion, leaving a pile of crap in their wake for others to clean up, and sub optimal outcomes from projects.

The explosion of marketing technology is not just making the shortcomings more obvious, it is delivering the means to measure it.

Holy cow Batman: Accountability!

The smoke and mirrors are being removed, leaving many self declared marketing gurus naked.

Leaving aside the question of individual capability, the root cause of this can usually be pinned down to a failure of project planning.

Specifically the failure to recognise the nature of critical activities that are sequential, building on the one before. For example, only a fool would lock into a creative approach and copy before the persona of the target market was absolutely crystal clear.

This notion is entirely different to the usual ‘critical path’ which can be a moveable feast as timetables move around.

Critical activities are just that, and they do not move around, at all. Project planning should always acknowledge the time necessary to complete each critical activity, and the specific sequence that is necessary.

Marketing project planning is no different to planning any other context, although the questions to be answered are usually less black and white, which simply means that the planning process needs to be rigorous and scientific if it is to be any good.

Marketers have a lot to learn from the manufacturing end of the lean movement.

4 essential  marketing success factors.

4 essential  marketing success factors.

Apr 6, 2016 | Change, Management, Marketing, Small business

I originally studied to be an accountant, it seemed logical at the time.

My dad was sort of an accountant, taking over the family small business after he returned from the rumble in New Guinea in the ‘forties’. He was the only son, taking over the family business was the done thing, like it or not.   He was a practical, objective bloke, and ran the business by the numbers.

It seems with hindsight that I had absorbed the pain and frustrations of his small business as a kid until the market changed radically in the sixties, and the business tanked, and Dad found himself in a job he hated for the next 25 years to keep food on the table.

Now I am that unusual marketer, one that not only understands the numbers, but who has a feeling for them, and advocates loudly that the numbers are the foundation of a business. You simply must know, understand and leverage them in order to be successful.

Wrapping up  the marketing and financial management skills into one bag, there are a four elements that I regard as essential to success.

Logic and extrapolation are driven by assumptions. Accountants are black and white,  debit or credit of the ledger. It is really easy to be seduced by the numbers spat out by a spreadsheet, but they are only as good as the assumptions about all sorts of things that make them worth the paper they are on. The greater the degree of interrogation of the assumptions driving the line of logic being employed, the better. I used to annoy the daylights out of my marketing teams by insisting that when delivering a business case, they came at the projections from at least 2 entirely different perspectives as a means to test the assumptions they were using.

Weight reason greater than passion. Often I have said that there is nothing so contagious as a dose of passion, and I stick to it, passion is great, irreplaceable, but not t the expense of reason. Passion should be build on a foundation of reason.

Greatly value the intuition of experience. Some things are just not quantitative. Have you ever felt that something was ‘just right’ without being able to articulate why? When I get that feeling in a domain where I have deep experience, usually I go with it, and the intuition usually pays off.

Accept that you are  not always right. In business we are trying to be alchemist, to tell the future and allocate resources accordingly. Not easy, and no matter certain you are of the assumptions, your intuition, and the rosy picture pained  by the numbers, shit can and does happen, and you just get it wrong. Accept it, cut your losses, learn form the experience and move on.

Experience is hard won, and in some cases can be turned into the wisdom to be passed on in the effort to better serve our customers.

8 reasons the opportunity for consumer goods SME’s has never been greater.

8 reasons the opportunity for consumer goods SME’s has never been greater.

Mar 14, 2016 | Change, Management, retail, Strategy

Think about it.

  • Many domestic competitors are gone, sent to the wall by combinations of the high $A, the power of the retail duopoly to call the tune with prices and terms, house brand expansion, and poor management.
  • Coles and Woolies have lost some of their grip as Aldi makes inroads, and some of the independents like Ritchies continue to compete effectively in local markets, and access to food service, ingredient and alternative retail becomes easier.
  • Consumer brand loyalty has been disrupted by the disappearance of some of the favoured brands, offering opportunities to forge new brand loyalties
  • Marketing expenditure can now be highly directed, and its effectiveness measured and continuous improvement be applied.
  • The costs of the tools like the analytics required to do effective category management, a data intensive exercise are  getting cheaper and cheaper, and the skills needed to make sense of the data more available.
  • SME’s are recognising that collaborative actions are not verboten, but are in fact very sensible and cost effective. Making it easier, digital technology has removed one of the greatest barriers to effective collaboration, the inability to communicate.
  • SME management has also recognised that collaboration is strategically and operationally sensible to build comeptitive scale to enable long term prosperity, so there are potential partners around.
  • Export is easier, as trade barriers are dropping, and product niches are often global

None of this of course is of any value unless you have the cash flow, determination, and management capability to make the changes necessary. However, those that have survived the last 10 years are a robust bunch, now the pressure is off a bit, don’t make the mistake of taking a breather, get in there!