May 26, 2022 | Change, Innovation, Leadership
Opportunities abound, and are hard to ignore.
They emerge to consume resources, distract attention, divert investment, obscure the focus on strategy, and generally disrupt operations.
How do you ignore, or better still, systematically, and quickly assess them, learn, and then execute or walk away?
- Relentless focus on the long-term objective, and the framework that is the strategic plan and supporting operational plans that will deliver that objective.
- Consistency between the long-term objectives and the activities that are shorter term, tactical choices.
- Have a bias for action, coupled with the discipline that any action needs to move the enterprise towards that long term goal.
- Never underestimate the power of the status quo to water down and divert the bias for strategically oriented action.
- You need the right people, those that will measure every decision against the agreed strategic objectives. This is not to remove any opportunity to divert from the strategy, it just requires more short-term agility to take advantage of tactical situations as they occur.
- Make sure you have all the facts and are working from first principles.
Strategy is all about making choices, and making a choice for option A precludes also choosing option B. This cascading of choices becomes a Bayesian decision tree as the choices cascade through the organisation from the top to the points of tactical implementation.
May 19, 2022 | Governance, Leadership
Every adult on the face of the earth has a set of biases deeply rooted in their brains. This is nothing to be surprised, ashamed, or confused about, it is the way we evolved. Our biases serve the purpose of freeing up cognitive capacity for more important, potentially lifesaving things, like the Fight or Flight response to anything that resembles danger.
Confirmation bias is one such cognitive shortcut. When we see something that we are familiar with, that confirms what we already think, we just accept it without analysis. Because it confirms to what we already believe, we accept it to be true.
We no longer live on the savannah where the rustle in the grass might be a sabre-toothed tiger, but the cognitive shortcuts that evolved in response to the need for instant recognition of that situation remain.
We use a host of these biases all the time in all facets of our lives, usually without recognising them.
Those who understand these cognitive shortcuts can use them to their benefit, and potentially our detriment. If someone can use a bias to elicit the response they want to some sort of stimuli, as in a sales situation, they can benefit, and those on the receiving end do not realise they are being manipulated.
The addition of the network effects of the web over the top of biases we all have has the effect of supercharging them. The social platforms particularly Facebook use this as a core part of their business model. Give people what they want and expect to see, and they will be increasingly committed to the view and the sources of ‘information’ on their view.
Over the time of this election campaign, we have seen the major parties put confirmation bias on steroids. Selected messages in selected places to selected audiences, seeking to confirm a selected response in the minds of the audience.
What a farce.
It is a graphic example of confirmation bias at work when what we need is thoughtful policy development and analysis as part of a robust strategy for the country.
Instead, we get this blizzard of psychologically driven tactical messages aimed only at Saturday May 21st.
I watched the Liberal Party ‘policy launch’ last Sunday morning. My penance for being so acerbic over the last months. Thankfully, both the treasurer, and national’s ‘leader’ were brief, but Scomo took 55 minutes of my life with a passionate plea to a packed house of selected Liberal party members for their vote. Presumably, he already has theirs, but what was interesting is that the whole thing was a zealot’s exhortation of a whole range of half-truths and outright misinterpretation of facts. Raw Confirmation bias on steroids for the packed house.
I wonder if any other swinging voter watched it, and had to run for the dunney as I did?
Thank heavens it will be over in a couple of days, but the hangover is likely to last for a while.
Header cartoon credit Chainsawsuit.com
May 11, 2022 | Leadership, Management, Marketing
There is an enormous difference between knowing the name of something, and truly understanding it.
Most move through school, university, and life by skimming, remembering bits about which questions are asked, and judiciously using jargon to get away with it.
Few take the time, and make the effort to truly understand.
The test is to explain that complex idea to a 12-year-old in such a way that they understand it. When you cannot do that, it is not the 12-year old’s fault, it is yours. You do not understand it fully enough to be able in simple words, metaphors, and similes to communicate the essential nature of the thing.
This is what I see from most calling themselves marketers.
Many marketers, particularly the younger ones, come up against a problem, and before doing any reasonable analysis, jump straight to some sort of digital conclusion that is often grossly sub-optimal.
Marketing is part science, part art.
It is a difficult balance, made more difficult by the simple fact that the art part of the equation only comes with experience, built upon the foundation of the science.
‘Anyone can make a subject complicated, but only someone who truly understands it can make it simple’. Richard Feynman
May 4, 2022 | Leadership, Operations
Any company that has grown bigger than about twenty or so employees has developed functional silos as a necessity. The bigger the company, the more focussed and powerful drivers of behaviour of functional employees those functional silos become.
At some point, they risk becoming self-preserving organisms, which seek survival and growth in an internal environment that competes for scarce resources to be allocated.
This is always a huge problem when seeking to generate change.
Water runs downhill, it finds the easiest way down, it builds momentum, continuously making minor adjustments, carving out a modified route as necessary.
Individuals in an organisation have a choice. Metaphorically, they can just ‘go with the flow’, or they can create friction and try and redirect the water. Few attempt to redirect the flow, and fewer still have the power to mandate it.
At some point, someone comes in and says we want some water back at the top of the hill, so someone gets some buckets, fills them, and starts back up the hill.
Almost always the journey is too tough, and they give up.
The momentum of the water still flowing down the known tracks beats them.
The task of leadership is to make that journey easier, to enable the individual to redirect their piece of the water flow, not to where it is easiest, which is the way it went last time, but to a new way, forging minor changes that cumulatively create the new best route to the end point.
Customers do not care about your internal structures, rules, and priorities. They want their product as ordered, at the agreed price, on time, no defects. This is inherently cross functional.
We have organised businesses for our own convenience, when in fact they should be organised for the convenience of customers.
Header photo credit: Lunayuna via flikr.
Apr 27, 2022 | Leadership, Management, Marketing, Small business
The inflation figures released this morning put the annualised inflation rate at 5.1%, up from 3.5% at the end of the December quarter last year. While it may bounce around given the volatility of fuel and food prices, the trend is very clear, and the current election driven lucky dip of spending promises will not help. This increase in a single quarter is the largest I can remember since the mid eighties.
Australia is in for a rocky ride, and it will not matter who wins on May 21, the impact will be felt in every corner of the economy, and by every Australian.
For SME’s who have weathered the challenges of covid and are now experiencing the added burdens of broken supply chains, and lack of labour, while trying to re-establish some level of certainty in their businesses in an environment where demand has ramped up, the prospects are daunting.
Irrespective of the decision made by the Reserve next Tuesday, to raise the cash rate from the current 0.1% to 0.4% or 0.5% which seem to be the prediction of the majority of economists, the squeeze is on. Raising the rate during an election campaign will test the independence of the reserve bank. I bet there are some phone calls being made!
How will this impact your business?
Those impacts will vary enormously depending on the industry circumstances. The rate that gets all the attention is a weighted average, with the actual sector numbers varying from a slight reduction in communication costs, to a 13.7% increase for transport costs.
- Labour costs will soar, as the demand for labour continues to grow, while immigration is still constricted, and the cost of living blows out.
- Transport costs, which most just see in the petrol prices at the local station, which impact everything that moves in the economy will quickly feed into cost of goods sold in every product category.
- Businesses will see a sudden increase in their accounts receivable days, their cash conversion cycles will become longer.
- There will be pressure on margins from multiple fronts. Volumes will be constrained as supply chain failures impact, and competitors scrambling for volume will be more likely to reduce prices to grab that extra sale. At the same time, costs are increasing, and price increases will be harder to get, as buyers exercise their buying power and shop around.
- You will be pressured by your suppliers for quick payments, as they are being squeezed for margin, just as you are.
- General overheads will increase. We have seen significant increases in lease costs for small factory spaces, insurance costs will be turbo-charged after the floods, fires, and pestilence of the last 2 years, down to the little things like costs of coffee for the lunchroom. All these individually manageable cost increases cumulatively add up to substantial and hard to control increases.
So, what should the SME’s that wish to remain successful be doing?
- Customers shopping around for a deal in greater numbers can present an opportunity for those who understand the drivers of Value for customers in their specific market.
- Resist the temptation to cut marketing and selling expenses. History demonstrates with absolute certainty that those that keep marketing when their competitors shut down in tough times not only do better during the tough times but retain their positions after the worm has turned. Optimising your marketing expenditure is not the same as cutting it.
- Actively engage employees and stakeholders in ways to maintain profitability. This should always be a priority, but is more pressing and visible in tough times.
- Focus on the 10 tactics outlined in the Inflation Busting Roadmap published previously
- Consider from the perspective of necessity the five types of cost in your business, with particular attention being given to the last three, as that is usually where the opportunities hide.
Many have not experienced a spurt of inflation before, the last serious spurt was in the mid-eighties while Paul Keating was treasurer. In management terms, this was over a generation ago. If the experience of those times would be of benefit, give me a call.
The header graph is from the ABS website updated as the announcement of the scary 5.1% heqadline inflation rate was announced.
Apr 25, 2022 | Leadership, Strategy
It is Anzac Day 2022, a day we remember those who fought to give us the choices we now have to shape the lives we lead.
In homage to the sacrifices they made, we need to be thinking seriously about the choices we are making that will impact on those who follow us.
Significant in those thoughts should be to think differently about the term ‘climate change’.
It is too narrow a term, implying we just need to be concerned about the immediate impact of CO2 on weather, and the human and capital impacts of those changes.
Instead, we need to be thinking about the challenges more holistically.
The planet we live on is an ecosystem, of which we humans are just a small but enormously influential part. For millennia, the impact we had on the eco system was inconsequential, but that changed with the industrial revolution, and have continued to change at a geometric rate. We suddenly are taking more out of the ecosystem than previously, impacting on the ability of the system to replace what we have taken, to the point where currently we are taking more than can be replaced.
An ecosystem is a bit like an investment portfolio. It benefits from diversity. When the diversity of any portfolio reduces, it makes that portfolio less resilient to outside shocks.
The planets ecosystem is being stripped of diversity, and as it is with an investment portfolio, it has become less resilient, less able to sustain itself. As a result, we are seeing those radical changes in weather patterns, and the consequential changes in climate.
There is nothing we do that does not come from nature. The oxygen we breathe, the water we drink, the foods we eat, the materials we use, all come from nature. We are part of the planets ecosystem, whether we like it or not, and we are consuming the resources of the ecosystem at an unsustainable rate.
Think of it as you would a balance sheet. On one side you have assets, on the other liabilities and equity. When your assets grow faster than your liabilities, you add to the store of equity. When it is the reverse, you deplete equity. The tipping point is when your equity is gone, and you can no longer sustain the difference between the rate in increase of liabilities over the production of assets. At that point you are bankrupt.
We humans have been depleting the assets of the planet unsustainably since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and the rate at which the depletion is happening is increasing. At some point, the music will stop, and subsequent generations will face the sort of dystopian future we see in sci-fi movies.
I think we have reached, or almost reached that point.
On this Anzac Day, as we have a BBQ in the back yard with friends, sink a few beers and stand in circles and throw a few pennies in the air, we should also be considering the legacy of our time in this place, and what we should collectively be doing about it.
It also happens to be my beautiful, educated and talented daughters birthday. Perhaps it is the thoughts of her children, yet to make an entry, that have made me consider the sort of world that my generation is leaving to them.
