How do you know what you do not know?

let's make better mistakes tomorrow on blackboard

I was struck by a line in a terrific blog post by Ian Leslie I read that said ” Google can answer almost anything you ask it, but it cannot tell you what to ask” 

It is totally counter-intuitive to consider that the power of the web is now narrowing our horizons, and that by succumbing to the lure of the algorithm, we are dismissing the beauty of serendipity, that unexpected discovery, the thing we would never have seen were it not for “right time, right place”. It does not seem to matter if it is a scientific discovery, Fleming recognising that the growth on his slide was killing all  the bacteria around it, or just finding a book in a bookstore that is “right” somehow, these thing s cannot happen on Amazon, or in isolation.

The question then becomes how do you create serendipity?

You need to be messy, cross- functional, collaborative, iterative, and work with an open mind, as well as applying discipline to the scientific method of process improvement, practicing what I call Loose-tight , or ambidextrous management.

This ambidexterity is not easy. It takes leadership, an enabling culture, and a deft hand, but the results speak for themselves. Combining the ability to mine the accumulated knowledge of all of us, with the creativity inherent in human nature when it is open-minded and free to make non linear connections will eventually lead you to ask the right questions, and reveal what you do not know.

Once you see the question, serendipity has a chance.

 

 

New media genius dinner.

Hugh MacLeod

Hugh MacLeod

There are many people I would like to meet, but a special group of them are the thinkers in the “new media” space.

 Brian Solis is one of them, along with Clay Shirky, Hugh McLeod, Mitch Joel, and  Seth Godin. These are all people who are shaping the manner in which we perceive the explosion of connectability that is driving our lives, enterprises, and the world we live in.

A current report of the Altimeter group of which Brian is a principal is called “The evolution of Social Business: Six stages of business transformation”. The report, and embedded slideshare presentation puts a framework around the bumbling most organisations are experiencing as they grapple with the opportunities, complications and costs of social, and socialised media.

Two last guests. First, someone who does a fantastic job of curating the content and thinking that is going on, is generous enough to share it all, and who knows all of the above blokes in person as a result of that generosity, Mike Stelzner. Second, an Aussie bird, for a bit of balance to the testosterone, and an alternative way of looking at things, Bernadette Jiwa.

What a truly great dinner group, the conversation would redefine “out of the box”, what pity I suck as a cook.

How do we judge political performance?

Federal Budget

This week we have had a budget, arguably the first half realistic assessment of the economy for some time, with some politically unpalatable pills swallowed. Not before time.

We have also had the budget reply, which was more an election speech than a roadmap for sensible governance, and government. We still know little about the priorities and relative weight the opposition gives to the many competing demands on the resources at their disposal via our tax payments, but we know a bit more now than before the speech.

Mr. Abbott put his finger on it when he recognised in his speech that if directors of a public company behaved like politicians, there would be some very serious questions asked by the regulatory authorities. We of the taxpaying classes have been saying that for years.

So, on the standards by which Directors are judged how has our government performed, on a scale of 1-5.

    1. Formulation and execution of a strategic plan. 1/5. Comment. I see nothing that resembles a coherent plan that takes account of the short term bumps whilst assembling the capabilities and resources to deliver longer term prosperity in a volatile and commoditized world.  Long term planning to this lot is what they are doing after (taxpayer sponsored) lunch. There are a few exceptions, some good intentions that may never emerge from the policy cocoon, which gave them the 1 point.
    2. Communication with, and alignment of, stakeholders to the strategic priorities outlined. 1/5. Comment. They get 1 because they did try, however ineffectively. The only stakeholders who appear to be aligned are the militant unions who have lined up to build back some of the rorts lost over the previous 15 years.  Non public sector union membership is now around 10% of the workforce, yet they exert a huge influence on this government, way out of proportion to the numbers they supposedly represent. The internal alignment of management is appallingly bad, and has resulted in not just a trashing of the brand, but in having some useful talent and experience being relegated to the bench for speaking their mind. Successful leaders recognise that the debate around differing views, and the “due process” that is a part of creative and sensible policy development is vital, shooting the messenger went out with Al Dunlap.
    3. Development of sensible policy to deliver on the “vision” bits of the strategic plan. 3/5. Comment. The “policy” agenda of a government is equivalent to the components of the value proposition and business model of a commercial enterprise. Discussion of the current governments policy development performance could have a strong partisan element depending on your views. However, whatever your views on the individual components, I think it is fair to observe that they made considerable effort, carbon abatement via a tax regime, taxing mining profits beyond the existing tax rates, some substantial international initiatives, the disability scheme, the NBN, response to the initial impact of the GFC, and a few others.  You may not like the individual policies, the implementation may have been be buggared, but the policy thought was there.
    4. Credibility. 0/5. Comment. Nobody I speak to believes anything coming out of the mouth of a pollie, of any persuasion.  The spectacle of politicians and their mates who do not just stick their snouts into the trough, but dive in and wallow around has utterly tarnished the credibility of the whole lot. You can thank Obeid and McDonald et al in NSW, Thompson in Canberra, the sound of cabinet ministers dumping on the Rudster, who then squibbs, and absolute undertakings (as distinct from “election promises”)  made and broken with monotonous regularity. The list goes on, and on.
    5. Performance compared to peers. 3/5. Comment. There is no doubt that Australia is in a far better position than most, if not all of economies that are reasonably comparable. The speed of Australia’s reaction to the GFC was commendable, and effective, although it can reasonably be argued that there was much waste involved. However, the financial flexability to make and implement decisions was a result of decisions taken by former governments, Hawke, Keating and Howard, and had little to do with the current regime. They just got lucky that there was money in the bank, and coal and iron ore prices went into a once in a generation spike. Discussion about how much better it could, perhaps should,  have been done while being interesting, is irrelevant except as a learning experience.
    6.  Productivity of our tax dollars, the outcomes we get from the spending. 1/5. Comment. Having run an agency outsourced from a Federal Department, and lived in Canberra  for several years, I am particularly cynical about the manner of the expenditure that happens on our behalf. Everything costs many times what it should, and would under a different, more commercial performance and accountability culture. There is simply no bottom line culture of accountability, just spend what is allocated and fight like banshees for more, as size of budget and reporting numbers are the measures of seniority and therefore salary, and associated employment perks. Obviously this is a generality, there are many motivated, educated and engaged public servants around, trying to do a job, and being frustrated by the existing culture, and it is this culture that must change before any reasonable productivity progress can be made. It is in a word, a function of Leadership, a rare commodity it seems.
    7. Governance, finally. 0/5. Comment. As Mr. Abbot recognised, any CEO whose leadership had failed as conspicuously as that of the current and former PM would not just be out of a job, and be responsible for a trashing of the share price, but would be fronting the ASIC and its investigators for breaches of more regulations than Ian McDonald has had long lunches. (It should be noted, the opposition would also have problems with the regulators, as making public pronouncements of fantasy as fact when you are trying to get someone to buy your product is illegal)

All in all, a pretty sad state of affairs that no board would tolerate. A responsible board would have identified and eliminated the causes of such hubris well before it got to the stage on show in our various parliaments around the country.

The truly scary thing to consider is how much better the current opposition will perform when they, as it is almost assumed, take over the keys to the lolly cabinet in September. I fear they will be overcome by the same stuff that has sunk the current lot, and will just govern for themselves whilst mouthing platitudes.

None of this is to deny the difficulties of government, the competing agendas and political realities of the 24 hour news cycle, and our seeming intoxication with the banal, irrelevant, and superficial. However, it is our money that is being spent, we have a right, indeed obligation, to have our say.

How would you mark these parameters, and what other strategic considerations should be made that I have missed?.

Failure of commission, or omission.

Budget 5684691

On this Budget “morning after” where public spending is at 33.5% of GDP and rising, all the debate is about the detail, weather or not the  “baby bonus” should be retained, the validity of the forward estimates given recent history, and increase in the personal tax rate of 0.5%  tearily described by the PM as just a small increase in the Medicare levy.

To my mind, we have missed the point.

It seems to me that a real problem in this country of ours is that we have allowed a culture to evolve that punishes errors of commission, those errant outcomes from someone actually taking some initiative, doing something, but getting it wrong. Sometimes they are the result of circumstances beyond their control, sometimes they just misjudge, and yes, sometimes, are just plain stupid, but at least they got off their arses and did something.

By contrast, we seem to just put up with those who do nothing but follow the party line, do as they are told, accept the status quo no matter how dumb they think it is, and just park their brains at the door.

Not the image we hold of ourselves.

The reality is about as far away from the bronzed Aussie gazing into the sunset somewhere harsh, taking all life can deliver with a grin and a stoic resolution to persist.

Perhaps it is about time we started focusing some light on those who did nothing, took  no responsibility for their actions, and just sucked at the teat delivered on a platter.

Our public sector consumes well over 33% of GNP, yet produces nothing. Much of the money is necessary if we are to be a civilised society, but not all of it. The lack of productivity in the public sector is a national disgrace. Layers upon layers of paper shuffling, process management with little  regard to outcomes, and meaningless KPI’s chased by intelligent, educated people, many of whom would love the opportunity to make change, but are prevented from doing so by the inertia of the system and prevailing culture.  

The greater error should be the one of omission, not commission. How do we empower the bronzed Aussie of our collective imagination?. We should be seeking better outcomes for the money spent, not just arguing about the amount spent.

Lest we forget

lest we forget

Today is ANZAC day, 2013, a day Australia stops, and remembers. We remember  those who fell and amongst the detritus of hyperbole that seems to multiply every year, there are tales of courage, endurance and perseverance that should not be forgotten, along with hard lessons from which we should have learned.

Alas, it seems we have not.

We still have troops in Afghanistan, and the rhetoric is similar to that which I heard as some of my mates did not come back from Vietnam, a war that divided us to the point that the Vietnam Vets were not welcome in Anzac Day marches until 1987.

Disgraceful. A blight on our country.

I wonder at the long term  impact on Afgan vets, will they be as screwed up as those from Vietnam, and WW11? My father to his deathbed did not talk about his experiences, the few comments over the years would lead to a conclusion that his time in the islands was boring, with just the occasional excitement, but that grossly understates what happened, even if it was nothing like the horrible, inhuman experiences of many. 

By remembering, we hopefully do not repeat the mistakes, but human nature is that we seem not to take sufficient notice, and repeat them.

Just like in business, we should contemplate the motivations that led to our actions in the past, and learn enough not to repeat the bad ones.

Business however, is pretty benign compared to war, irrespective of how brutal we may believe it is. I am reminded of the quip by Keith Miller, our best-ever all round cricketer, spitfire pilot, and archetypal Australian larrikan who when asked during the invinvibles tour how he handled the pressure of a tight test, said “Pressure, this is not pressure, pressure is having an ME 109 up your arse at 400 miles an hour, this is just a game of cricket.”

Oh, the other reason I feel Anzac day is special, it is my beautiful daughters 28th birthday.

Happy birthday Jenn.

Lest we forget.

 

A Private note to the chairman: or 6 reasons to quit.

 

 future

It is always intriguing to get into a debate with one of my director peers about the way forward for an enterprise. Opinions vary, and the “chat” can become animated, as one did a few weeks ago. As a result, I jotted down a few points to email as a follow up, just for sport, (perhaps commercial suicide) but on re-reading, they seem to make sense. Following is a language edited version.

Bill, managing and promoting growth has a couple of dimensions:

The first is managing the customers, market dynamics, and value proposition that keeps the bills paid, the second in being able to look around the corner and see what is coming next. Not just in terms of the old “same/similar product/new customer/new market” matrix, but the genuinely new stuff, the revised business models, products that break the consumer usage mould, packaging of technology that genuinely changes the dynamics, i.e., the future.

This second part is really hard, but there are a few things that every success seems to have in common, that we need to consider:

  1.  We need to understand what it is that we deliver, our purpose, why are we here?. Steve jobs did this better than anyone when he defined Apples purpose when he returned in terms of design, not the hardware or software, but the way in which consumers interacted with the product, and the design of the way it worked, and without being too wanky, its soul.
  2.  See better than our competitors  what it is we need to know to be successful in the future, indeed, we need to anticipate who may become competitors as the technology underpinning our business evolves. Those who saw the impact of the net first in terms of behaviour and the disruption of markets that occurred did best. Again, Jobs saw the future, and put bits of existing technology together in different ways and came to the market with revolutionary and disruptive products. By contrast, Jeff Bezos saw the future, and built Amazon to leverage that vision. In our business 3-D printing seems to have the potential to be a significant disrupter, it may miss us, but will not go away, so shouldn’t we be learning about the technology?
  3. Learn to unlearn, as they way we do things today will not be sufficient to survive in the future. This I see as a significant failure of the existing management, and our own demands of them. Rarely, outside the public sector have I seen a management so risk averse, but really, whose fault is that?
  4. Pilot, experiment, and take a lot of small steps, some of which individually may seem  “flakey” but together provide the opportunity to learn. See comment above.
  5. Reward the behaviour you want, not just with money, as whilst money is important, far more important to our employees is recognition, and further  opportunities to stretch their minds and build experience. They may move on with that knowledge and experience, but that is the world we live in, but while they remain, they contribute at a high level, and when they leave, they do so thanking us, not turning to Twitter to dump on us.
  6. Learn to live with the discomfort of not really knowing what is next, the disruption of the status quo that is fundamental to finding tomorrows successes. The twin notions of managing a project portfolio, and being prepared to pivot any project as circumstances demand rather than being wedded to some artificial business plan and operating budget should be embraced.

Unless we can agree that this list has some relevance to the way we direct the business, one of us has to go, and I would prefer it be me, as I do not want to be branded as one of the directors who failed to see the “crappola”  coming, and when it hit, did not have the sense to turn off the fan. Besides, you are the chairman, and my peers like to be told what to do, so my departure can be seen as a “smoothing” of the board debates.

In short, it is my contention that we must manage the present, and invent the future, and to do this we need to develop a far higher degree of management ambidexterity, and sensitivity to our rapidly evolving marketplace.

I look forward to our next conversation.