Public sector flatulence

Public sector flatulence

It is wonderful to consider the impact the Prime Ministers “A Plan for Australian Jobs” announcement over the weekend has had, already, on Australian jobs.

    1. Multitudes of grateful bureaucrats have laboured mightily for months and months, crafting and re-crafting the words of the announcement to ensure it  does not say anything  that may attract any critical comment, and includes every existing program and hopeful announcement at least twice,
    2. Favoured  consultants are rejoicing at the fees to date, and to come,
    3. Advertising and PR agencies wriggle to the bar to celebrate the coup of gaining “the account”,
    4. Engaged lawyers, consultants, bureaucrats, researchers, and grant trough dwellers, rejoice at the billion dollar bait now on the table.

But what about the rest of us, those who struggle to compete in the real world?

Lots of well meaning, multi-syllable words that ensure there is no accountability for anything, just continuous blather, platitudes and clichés. Oh, and the plan tells us they will spend a $billion of our money. It is after all, “our responsibility to assist in the structural adjustment process in the economy”.  We, as obedient and loyal servants, should be grateful the Government has finally realised the parlous state of manufacturing in this country, and are doing something about it.

I read the plan, twice in fact because I thought I must have missed the important and insightful bit the first time through. You can save yourself a bit of time and read the summary, that is useful, but please consider the following whilst you do:

    1. Minister Combet says in his introduction that the plan is “Supporting Australian industry to increase exports and win more business abroad”. Call me pedantic, but I thought increasing exports and winning more business abroad were the same thing, and besides,  what has Austrade been doing for the last 40 years?. Having run a real business on contract for a Federal department, set up with the express aim of increasing agricultural exports with a budget of 6 million over 3 years, which attracted the ire of the “You cannot subsidise exports”  Nazi’s in Canberra, I can only wonder what a billion is doing for their collective blood pressure.
    2. There is a fair bit of verbiage about “fostering clusters” in the report. There is no doubt that clusters can become innovation hotbeds. Everyone with a pig in the race points to the tech miracle of Silicon Valley, and the medical cluster centered on Boston, amongst a few others, but forgets that they took decades to evolve, (a bit longer than the average election cycle in the first world) and the evolution of successful clusters has had nothing to do with public investment beyond the provision of high quality public infrastructure, schools,  universities, transport, and power. Every investment (to my knowledge)by a Government in an overt effort to build a “cluster”  around the world has failed, or is failing in the absence of a long term investment in infrastructure.
    3. Oh the joy of a good acronym! The plan is full of them, some new, some recycled, but the gold standard is a beauty: G.O.L.D. standing for “Growth Opportunities and Leadership Development”. Wonderful isn’t it, must have come from an orgasmic Eureka moment for someone.  Clearly, I am just being petty.
    4. A headline objective of this plan is “Creating a stronger, fairer, and simpler tax and transfer system and reducing red tape” Great sentiment, but all through the plan is articulated the need for more legislation, regulation, and creation of various advisory and oversight bodies. When I was at school, these sorts of additions would consume added resources, add complication, and create demarcation squabbles amongst agencies. Not a lot of “simpler, fairer”  in this lot that I can see.
    5. This is the last whinge, perhaps the best, so congratulations if you have got this far. There is a graph 5.1 on page 23 of the report that shows collaboration  across a number of economies, which is presumably there to demonstrate the value of collaboration, which the government wants to (correctly in my view) foster. The figures show Australia at about 18% (of what is not really clear to me) next door to Germany, held up as a poster child of manufacturing excellence, at 19%, and China, at 19.5%. The field is lead by a Black Caviar like stretch by Britain at 69%, but the last time I looked, the British economy was a basket case. Perhaps the graph is a mistake, showing the opposite of the Governments argument, or perhaps the situation has changed because the data is so bloody old, or perhaps my simple old brain has been scrambled by the clichés and acronyms.

Australian manufacturing is in a hole, and rule 1 of my rules of holes says that “once you realise you are in a hole, stop digging”. There is little in this plan that actually throws away the shovel, it just burnishes it for more use. The real challenge is the endless duplication, commercial naivety, turf wars, lack of gumption, and the assumption that all problems can be legislated away that infests our elected bodies and their bureaucrats that is the greatest hurdle Australian manufacturing has to jump.

Header cartoon courtesy TomGauld.com

The failure report

How often do we hear that we learn more from our failures than our successes, that if we do not fail sometimes, we have not done enough, and that an innovative, exciting culture embraces failure? Thomas Watson Senior, creator of IBM once said “the fastest way to succeed is to double your failure rate.”

So how is it that we rarely see failure really celebrated if it is so productive? Such celebration is very rare in my experience. 

An Canadian NGO, Engineers Without Borders has broken the mould, and published their “Failure Report” and attracted considerable attention, this article in the Guardian outlines the background. 

How brave is that?

NGO’s depend for their funding from groups that you would expect to be pretty risk averse, they would hate to see their donations seemingly wasted, and admitting failure is on the surface at least, admitting to waste and potentially putting their funding at risk.

I wonder what would happen if Australia’s public companies were publish their own failure reports?

Rio Tinto’s foray into Aluminum , Harvey Norman missing the on line shopping revolution, Woolworths finally admitting Dick Smith had turned feral, James Hardie and asbestosis, Eddie and the Labor party, the list goes on. We get outside analysis, sometimes the entrails of failure are exhumed by legal processes, but never do we get the honest, gut-felt,  reactions of those involved in the decision making examining their behavior, and taking responsibility for the failures. All we hear is the spin of the successes, and the message that the protagonists are all seeing, all knowing, who only act in the interests of others. Ducking of responsibility has become a management core capability,  “I cannot recall” the last refuge of the villain.

How much better if we did as we say we should do, and celebrated failure as a  part of the learning process, and that intelligent analysis of the reasons for failure, and the resetting expectations makes for a healthy culture.

 

You can’t test everything

Web based A/B testing goes a long way towards eliminating dumb mistakes, making the best choice, creating a discipline around innovative activity, and encouraging change, and has been made far easier in a whole range of areas by the data collection capabilities of the net.

But what happens when you cannot test, when you are doing something so completely new that the frame of reference necessary for good test results does not exist?

Try testing the Model T in 1890, only a few would have seen the possibilities because the horse was the frame of reference, the early cubic paintings of Picasso, art that so broke the rules as to be outrageous, or the calculations of Copernicus demonstrating the earth was not the centre of the universe, something catholic church felt pretty strongly about.  

At some point testing becomes a redundant tool, you simply cannot test everything, and you have to rely on the guts, instinct, and insight of the few outliers who see things differently to make meaningful change

 

 

A bigger pile of hay.

Listening this morning to a discussion about the value of a review of the GST sharing regime currently in place, a small part of the GST regime, I was reminded of the  geometric nature of the complications that arise from complexity of a system.

The greater the amount of data, the greater the opportunity for analysis, apparently. However, the greater the amount of data, it usually follows that the level of complexity also increases, and as complexity increases so does the number of interactions, and cause and effect relationships that need to be anticipated and interpreted.

Unanticipated relationships that have an impact on the performance of the system, but have not been “risk-assessed” can create a  huge risk to systems, simply because they are not in the rule-book. The system is supposed to be “fail-safe” so the response to an unanticipated situation is not enabled. Remember Lehmann Brothers, a massive institution that on paper was AAA, but in reality was so complex that risk was not easily assessable except with hindsight.

Finding the needle gets harder as the pile of hay gets higher, and the complexity of hay-stack increases.

How complex is your business model?

 

 

The forest or the tree.?

Can’t see the forest for the trees!.

This is a pretty common expression, almost a cliché observing that the pressure of the detail overcomes the view of the whole.

However, a tree is a part of the foundation of the forest, in the same way a single challenge or task is a part of a whole project, and it plays a role in the “fabric” of the whole.

The challenge is to see both the forest and the tree, the forest offering the context, the tree offering the vital details and relationships between the details, at the same time.

Failure to see both, and manage ambidextrously, will compromise both.

Return on management.

We measure return on the capital investments we make, there is an extensive, well understood, widely used set of tools that offer a framework for the calculations, most of us would be lost without them.

However, whilst we all know in our guts that there is a set of practices that together we would call great management, and the businesses they run are better than those run by “ordinary” management, there are few tools available. Trouble is, articulating what make great management has been a qualitative process, significantly informed by hindsight.

So what are the characteristics of superior management?

Seems to me there are three characteristics,  that are all the result of extensive sets of individual and group behaviour:

    1. A well executed strategy that differentiates in a manner customers value
    2. The management team is a cohesive, but questioning bunch of trained, intelligent people who have a strong sense of team competitiveness. This characteristic is reflected in the groups that exist at all levels of the organisation.
    3. There are appropriate measures that drive continuous improvement throughout the organisation

For comparative purposes, the Worldmanagementsurvey.org  site carries an extensive database with the results of a multiyear, multinational academic survey that offers an opportunity to benchmark management performance. It offers an opportunity to start the process of identifying the behaviours that lead to superior performance by management.