What’s coming for 2012?

Jan 2, 2012 | Leadership, Personal Rant, Small business, Social Media

It is the time of year for predictions and reviews, so here is my shot. Three general predictions, and one very specific one, followed by a review of my predictions of this time last year.

    1. The barriers to communication are falling so quickly, that a raft of tools are emerging that will change the way we consume. Collaborative Consumption is emerging as an economic driver that  will change the mechanics of many industries, and create new ones. Companies like Zipcar remove the need to own a car, particularly useful for inner city residents, Swaptree replaces the sale of Ebay with a swap, something you have but no longer need being swapped with someone with the opposite.
    2. Small is good!. Starting a new business has never been easier, and they are popping up all over the place, replacing and renewing all sorts of services. All that gets in the way of all this new activity is the institutional barriers in place from last century. If you need a bit of money to fund a good idea, and the family and friends, the traditional source, are wary, try Kickstarter.com, where money is pledged to good ideas.
    3. The wisdom of the crowd is slowly being recognised, but the pace is accelerating rapidly. This idea, first comprehensively articulated by James Suroweicki, the New Yorker columnist some years ago is gaining amazing traction in management practice as its self evident truths are incorporated into activity. The next step is to assemble this wisdom from the electronic fingerprints we all leave across the net. Scary to some from a privacy perspective, enormously productive from the factory floor to the boardroom and political forums.
    4. The Mad Monk , Opposition leader Tony Abbott will not make it to the end of 2012, but will be replaced by Malcolm Turnbull, who appears to be on of the few in the Parliament who actually listens to the facts, and acknowledges that ideological solutions to the complex problems we face are just too simplistic to work, but that we need a consistent philosophical foundation to the decisions that are made, rather than a response to a focus group. 

 

 

At the end of 2010 I made some observations and predictions, so how did I go? Generally, the trends identified here I believe will continue,  with the exception of the first one, which is now appears likely to be very wide of the mark.

    1. We may regret the increase in “touch” devices as we use them to replace human contact. Jury is still out, the growth of touch devices has been amazing during the year, and shows no sign of lessening,  but there is little evidence that my concern about the humanity in relationships being eroded is valid. Score 2/10.
    2. Global retailing takes over. It seems the e-tailing revolution is really here, now you can find and buy just about everything on the net,  from books and electronics to whitegoods, cars, and even love.  Score 7/10. marked myself down a bit because it was so obvious.
    3. Net advertising will overtake traditional advertising. I  have seen conflicting numbers, so who really knows, but I suspect it has happened, and when you add in the growth of “content” posted on sites like u-tube, that are not paid advertising, but have a marketing objective, there is no doubt paid advertising in “traditional” media is now behind advertising/advertorials on the net . Score 7/10.
    4. Social media comes of age. Got that right, the quickest growing demographic on social media is 50 plus, often connecting with scattered grandchildren, then discovering  SM is a great tool for all sorts of other things. Score 9/10.
    5. The cloud rolled in. Again, got it right, the hype around the cloud appears to be turning into investment, not just so institutions can reduce their costs, but because change is so rapid, it is now easier to keep up on the cloud. Most are finding it is not cheaper, the money just moves from the balance sheet to the P&L, but far more flexible, and responsive to change. Score 9/10
    6. Data mining will gain momentum. This happened, and is still happening, but slower than I thought it would. I suspect the growth in the cloud, (5) and crowdsourcing  (7) will provide significant momentum. Score 6/10
    7. Crowdsourcing will emerge from the shadows. This is certainly a trend that accelerated through the year, and is still gaining momentum. Everything from NPD, to project management, graphic art, sales lead identification, and customer service delivery. Score 7/10, just because it it taking a bit longer than I expected.
    8. Two speed Australia became accepted, even if two speed now appears to be a much more complicated mix than just 2 speeds. The  added complication is the financial crisis in the Eurozone, and the knock-on impacts that could have on Australia’s economy as exports from to Europe and the US from China slow. This is a truly scary scenario. Score 7/10.
    9. Climate change and the political response. With the exception of Australia, with Bob Brown calling the shots in Canberra, climate change fell down the agenda in developed countries in the face of financial woes. Companies may be working slowly to adjust their  activity mix, but politicians are more concerned with re-election, and are taking populist positions rather than taking the really hard decisions that will alienate large parts of electorates. Score 6/10
    10. The push for regulation. Got that right, often by stealth, regulation is coming back as a strategy option for governments everywhere. In Australia the most obvious is our workplace legislation. Got that right, 9/10. In December, 2011 it was announced that “Fair Work Australia” would undergo the promised review of its effectiveness, chaired by the new minister Bill Shorten, who has already announced his view that we are leading the world in workplace regulation. My bullshit meter hit overdrive when I saw the press release, as it is clear that the regulations are stifling innovation, risk taking and productivity, and are simply an acknowledgement to the “left” whichever party they belong to . There are several others, like the so called “Road safety Remuneration Bill” which is really just a government sponsored grab for power by the TWU, and promises to cost the community heaps, and put even more small transport operators out of business, but are travelling under the radar.

Overall, I give myself a pretty good pass mark.

 

Hope 2012 is a good one for you.

Allen

 

Best management tool ever

Dec 21, 2011 | Leadership, Management, Operations

The best management tool available is amongst the cheapest, a pair of shoes.

Hierarchies are vertical, they filter and modify information as it goes up and down an organisation, but real things, those that customers pay for,  get done in an organisation horizontally, and generally at lower levels, at the “coalface.” So, for someone at the top to really understand what is going on below, they must be where the action is, not in the boardroom.

In Lean parlance, a “Gemba walk”.

Get yourself a pair of shoes for Christmas.

 

Meritocracy, not democracy.

Dec 20, 2011 | Collaboration, Leadership, Management

Meritocracy is about the best ideas, whereas democracy is about consensus, usually an average outcome.

In a democracy, those who manage to smooth the waters, and gain the average usually get ahead, but in a true meritocracy, those with the best ideas get listened to, and eventually get ahead.

Collaboration is often confused for democracy, everyone gets an equal turn, but in a collaboration that will win, only the best ideas survive the demanding, often aggressive review and decision making process that are core to success. It is this review that crashes most collaborations, because most people see them as democracies, not meritocracies brought together to identify and harvest the best ideas.

Sobering thought when you consider the challenges we face, economically and socially, to think that at best, we can have an average outcome.

3 requirements for Respect

Dec 5, 2011 | Leadership, Management

Respect is a word bandied about a fair bit, but what does it really mean in an organisational sense?

It seems to me that respect is rarely built by an avoidance of conflict, rather by the willingness to meet it head on with three behavioral characteristics:

    1. Using facts and data when available on which to base a view, not relying on personality and position.
    2. All assumptions made are absolutely transparent, and any relevant data is available to all for analysis and debate.
    3. “Due process” during the discussions is clear, all parties have ample opportunity to put views, particularly dissenting ones, on the table for  discussion.

By contrast, the easiest way to destroy respect is to allow personal stuff to intrude.

 

Volume is not the measure of value.

Nov 27, 2011 | Communication, Leadership, Personal Rant, Social Media

The digital world has taken over, but the emergence of social media tools that host a lot of pretty low grade stuff  sometimes overshadows the huge impact the tools of the web can have, sometimes life-changing and even saving,  impacts.  Just look at the role played by social media during the floods in QLD, the disaster in Christchurch, and the changes happening in the Middle East.

Consider the site Ushahidi for instance,  born in crisis, and evolving in a manner that has, and will continue to make a huge difference to many peoples lives in times of crisis. Such a tool would have been impossible without  Tim Berners-Lee, his colleagues and subsequent innovators.  

The value of just one site like Ushahidi, and the useful utility of social tools makes up for all the junk that appears to be the other side of the coin, making up the volume.

The parallels of Europe and Billy Bloggs & Co.

Nov 20, 2011 | Change, Leadership, Management, Strategy

The chaos in the European monetary system, and the appearance of a lack of the required backbone to address the issues has parallels in every commercial change situation I have ever seen, irrespective of the size of the oranisation:

    1. It takes a while to stuff up a sound system with hubris an self-interest, the decline is slow, but with hindsight, absolutely clear.
    2. The leadership that got into the mess is unable to clean up its own poop, and needs changing.
    3. Necessary changes cannot be made until it seems there is no option, and the stakeholders recognise that the status quo is simply unsustainable.
    4. In change, some get hurt more than others, but most suffer from some austerity.  If the stakeholders clearly understand that there is simply no option, and they trust the emerging leadership to take tough,  but in the long term decisions that benefit all, they will suffer the short term pain to set things right.

In Europe we are half way through this process. Most Europeans would recognise the status quo is unsustainable, and that change must happen. The leadership is changing, Italy and Greece have changed, and Spain has an election coming up at which the incumbent government will probably be decimated, Ireland made the changes a year ago, and appears to be recovering, and Portugal is just tagging along, so far so good in driving change. Next step is to ensure the measures are appropriately tough, and that they “stick” despite the opposition that will emerge from organised vested interests.

It seems to me that the whole process is being facilitated by the Germans. They do not want the EU to implode as it would see their new Deutschmark soar, removing their current competitive advantage, so they are paying the price of short term financial market instability to force the changes elsewhere in Europe, to give impetus to the general understanding that aggressive change is the only way forward.

If Europe was a company, this is exactly what we would see if a number of key subsidiaries got into trouble.

Billy Bloggs & Co, my small client undergoing some painful restructuring is showing us what will happen in Europe.