Forecasts are not predictions.

If you want a prediction, go to the lady in the tent at the local fair.

If you want a forecast, talk to those who have an intimate knowledge of the drivers of the outcomes you are seeking to forecast.

Good forecasting is an iterative process, the more you do, the better you get, so long as you understand why the forecast is (almost) never right on each occasion it is done. Continuous improvement techniques are the core functions of good forecasting, and good forecasting is essential to smooth operations.

 

Questions sell.

Selling is all about finding the way your product can add value to your prospective customer greater than the price you are asking for it. 

Why is it then that most selling activities I see are the commercial equivalent of “flashing” your wares and hoping the” flashee” is interested in buying?

Surely asking questions is a better way to find out what they may have a need for, often unrecognised until you are able to demonstrate the value of your solution.

So, ask questions, keep them open ended, focus on benefits delivered by your product, not on their features, and discuss them in the context of the prospects environment, which you define by questions.

Looking at a sales pitch as a negotiation, rather than simply a selling exercise can assist the process of questioning, identifying the other parties “buttons” is a part of the game, and the way to do that is with questions. 

Still the best sales book ever written is “Spin Selling” by Neil Rackham, and this focuses on the process of questioning a prospect, leading to a sale.

It works.

Marketing focus.

It is easy to see opportunities outside the “home base” often easier than seeing them close to home. However, success comes with exploiting potential in existing markets before you “export” resources to chasing new ones. Chase market penetration, cost reduction, value and innovation in your home and adjacent markets before you bet the farm on a new one.

These closer to home opportunities are rarely as sexy as building a business in a new area, but often they come with less risk, and investment, and usually a greater payoff.

Innovation is front and centre in this process of leveraging the existing base, but it is the grunt work of implementation, continuous innovation in small ways, and focus that will win.

My definition of marketing, not found in any textbook I have read is:

“Marketing is the identification, development, protection and leveraging of competitive advantage”

I have found if you apply this definition to all the activities of an enterprise, looking at each for its contribution to at least one of these parameters, your marketing focus  will be crystal clear, and the process of sorting out strategy, and the supporting allocation of resources will be considerably eased.

Lessons from the coal-face.

    As we appear to be coming out of the worst of the downturn, as highlighted by the .25% increase in the prime rate day before yesterday, it would be a mistake to think that the good times are back without trying to learn from the pain of the last 18 months.

    Across my little group of clients, a number of things are clear:

  1. Cash is king, and will remain so for some time. If you have it, great opportunities will arise, if you do not have it, life is very difficult indeed.
  2. Customers buy on price unless there is a compelling, relevant, and engaging value story attached to your product. Where that story exists, price is not an issue. The middle ground appears to have been significantly eroded, never was branding so important, and at the other end of the spectrum, without a brand, you need to be the lowest cost supplier to survive, and there is always someone who is about to supplant you as the lowest cost supplier.
  3. It is uncertain how the government stimulus package will impact over the coming months. Confidence appears to be pretty fragile,  and looming are the political difficulties inherent in pulling back on announced initiatives, alongside the difficulties of a ballooning deficit. Do not rely on the public stimulus as anything more than a transient, one-off cash generator.
  4. Information moves at the speed of the mouse, and is totally insensitive to your situation. Spin is easily recognised for what it is, and attracts the cynical response we all think it deserves, and good news or bad, your opportunity to manage it is greatly reduced, so you better be under-promising & over-delivering, or you will find yourself left on the shelf.
  5. Creativity and innovation were never more important, being like everyone else is a recipe for a slow commercial suffocation.
  6. Focus on fewer things, and make sure they are strategically the key items.  Focus makes everything you need to do easier to execute, but it is very hard to stop being attracted by the siren song of expediency. Resist the temptation, remembering the old adage that if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

The organisation pyramid.

Organisation charts almost always depict organisations as an equalateral triangle. It is a simple change in perspective, to see it with a third dimension, like the Egyptian pyramid. Suddenly, it is clear that the guts of the organization are largely hidden from view.

It also becomes clear that enterprises can really only work when there is engagement across the third dimension, with all the complication that engagement implies.

This simple act, of thinking about the organisation and how it works including the third dimension is an easy way to recognise the complications inherent in the management processes and decision-making necessary to make the thing effective. Cross functional co-operation then becomes an obvious necessity, not something mandated by someone with a good idea. 

Invest in the unexpected.

One of the most widely known strategy tools is the SWOT, but it is widely misunderstood.

Often there is confusion about what is a strength, and what is an opportunity, similarly, what is a weakness, and what is a threat.

 Strengths and weaknesses are internal to  the business, they are under the control of those in the business, and a strength is not just something you do well, that is like having a watch that tells the time, it is something that makes your business distinctive.

Threats and opportunities are a result of external conditions, and usually there is little a business can do to create them,  the best they can do is anticipate and manage the adverse impacts, and leverage the opportunities.

Most businesses automatically set out to build on their existing strengths, when often improving on their weaknesses offers a better return on the resource investment necessary. Turning a weakness into a strength also has the potential to create surprise, and the resulting competitive edge, simply because it is unexpected.