Dec 12, 2011 | Innovation, Marketing, Strategy
From bricks and mortar, to the web, and now to mobile apps. What is next for retailing?
There was a blue last week between the current and previous MD of David Jones, about who wore the blame for DJ’s being slow into e-selling, billionaire Gerry Harvey is often bitching about the unfair competition from e-tailers, and Australian post is gearing up to deliver parcels, as their snail-mail service is on its deathbed, certainly unable to support the infrastructure built for another age. Now the just released Productivity Commission report on retailing has recommended that the threshold for the application of GST on imported parcels drop from the current $1000, as soon as it is cost effective to do so.
It seems to me that there is a resurgence of alternative retail, new business models that leverage the changing environment, Harris Farm, Aussie Farmers direct, Kogan, and many others. By looking backwards to set the regulatory framework, we run the risk of compromising the emerging foundations of the future, and stamping on the wrong hat.
Dec 9, 2011 | Strategy
A variation on the classic Boston Consulting model of product portfolio management the classic 2 X 2 matrix, dogs, cows, stars, and, and, and, everybody forgets the fourth category. Usually it is depicted with a “?” in the matrix, and records those projects that are attractive, but where there is little competitive skill you can bring to bear.
Make it easy, just cows, dogs, and kids!
You milk your cows,
Lose your dogs, and
Invest in your kids.
Easy.
Dec 2, 2011 | Customers, Marketing, Social Media, Strategy
How do you calculate the value of an investment in social media?
Any investment attracts the need to try to quantify the returns, both to measure the success of the investment when it is too late to do much about it apart from ensuring the same mistake is not made again, and to prioritise competing investment options against a limited pool of funds available.
Accountants love the discounted cash flow, and real options type analyses that prevail, but how do you do these on an investment in media, social or otherwise?
It makes sense to start to consider “data chains”.
Cause and effect;
Influence and action;
Believable and buy;
These are all examples of the chains of connections that are on the surface largely subjective, but lead to an outcome that can be measured. The task of measuring the return on the exposure that can accrue from a presence in Social Media, and even conventional media, is fraught with challenges, but with systemisation of the pools of data generated from your sales, customer retention, prospect identification, web analytics, and all the other data collection options now available, you can start to see the patterns emerging that can be used to calculate a return, even if there is a “fudge factor” present.
At some point you simply have to acknowledge that behavioral patterns are not easy to quantify, and even harder to predict, but by explicitly acknowledging the chains of cause and effect that exist, you can start to anticipate, if not predict, the returns
Nov 30, 2011 | Management, Strategy
The detail of Strategy development is different for every situation. There is no template that is able to account for the nuances that exist, despite the claims to the contrary.
There are however quite a few sensible and easy to say but usually hard to do things that should feature in your considerations.
1. Go to where the work is done. Too many businesses treat strategy development as an exercise to be completed in isolation, assembling lots of data and PowerPoint slides. There is no substitute for going to where the work is done and realistically examining the issues. In lean parlance, “go to the gemba“, talk to a few customers, some who you would like to be customers, and a few outside the boundaries of your current market aspirations.
2. Identify the assumptions that do not get questioned, those that often make up the foundation of a strategic exercise, and then question them, to ensure they make sense. The “what business are we in” question and “every customer buying a 2mm drill really wants a 2mm hole” observations are a key to strategy development, use the opportunity to make sure you are focusing on the right customer, and what it is they are really looking for.
3. Use stories and analogies to make your points. People relate to stories, they understand analogies, and they are way more fun that moving data around a spreadsheet.
4. Do some scenario “what if” thinking, and make them relevant, but a bit far out there to get the juices going. Several years ago doing a strategic exercise with a client whose business was significantly impacted by the $A, for both the import of raw materials, finished product, and competitive offerings in their market, we did just this exercise. At the time, the $A was around $US.70, and we spent some time discussing what would happen at all exchange points up to $1.20, almost inconceivable at the time, but facing them a few short years later.
5. Make the strategy “porous” in the sense that as new information, situations, and opportunities emerge, that can be absorbed into the strategy, facilitating adjustments in resource allocations and priorities, without compromising the purpose and values of the business.
In the end, strategy is about choice. It is as important to articulate what you will not do as it is to articulate what you will. Making intelligent and robust choices only comes as a result of gathering and understanding data and combining that with the insights and wisdom that are often found out in left field.
Nov 25, 2011 | Strategy
Assumptions are the backbone of all strategic initiatives, indeed, most day to day activity. Often these assumptions are implicit, they make sense, we do not even question the assumption, by default they become as good as a fact.
Really good strategic and design initiatives turn assumptions into facts by finding supporting data, and in the absence of the data to make an assumption a fact, it remains an assumption, subject to continual scrutiny.
A really useful first step in any planning process is simply to ensure that any assumptions are exposed for what they are, assumptions, subject to change in the face of new information .
Nov 20, 2011 | Change, Leadership, Management, Strategy
The chaos in the European monetary system, and the appearance of a lack of the required backbone to address the issues has parallels in every commercial change situation I have ever seen, irrespective of the size of the oranisation:
- It takes a while to stuff up a sound system with hubris an self-interest, the decline is slow, but with hindsight, absolutely clear.
- The leadership that got into the mess is unable to clean up its own poop, and needs changing.
- Necessary changes cannot be made until it seems there is no option, and the stakeholders recognise that the status quo is simply unsustainable.
- In change, some get hurt more than others, but most suffer from some austerity. If the stakeholders clearly understand that there is simply no option, and they trust the emerging leadership to take tough, but in the long term decisions that benefit all, they will suffer the short term pain to set things right.
In Europe we are half way through this process. Most Europeans would recognise the status quo is unsustainable, and that change must happen. The leadership is changing, Italy and Greece have changed, and Spain has an election coming up at which the incumbent government will probably be decimated, Ireland made the changes a year ago, and appears to be recovering, and Portugal is just tagging along, so far so good in driving change. Next step is to ensure the measures are appropriately tough, and that they “stick” despite the opposition that will emerge from organised vested interests.
It seems to me that the whole process is being facilitated by the Germans. They do not want the EU to implode as it would see their new Deutschmark soar, removing their current competitive advantage, so they are paying the price of short term financial market instability to force the changes elsewhere in Europe, to give impetus to the general understanding that aggressive change is the only way forward.
If Europe was a company, this is exactly what we would see if a number of key subsidiaries got into trouble.
Billy Bloggs & Co, my small client undergoing some painful restructuring is showing us what will happen in Europe.
