The critical key to reliable forecasting: Be less wrong.

The critical key to reliable forecasting: Be less wrong.

Thomas Bayes. 1701 – 1761
 

The key to good forecasting, that magic elixir most of us take, is not to be right, but to be increasingly less wrong.

We know  the future will be different, being less wrong about that difference is better than consuming resources trying to be right, because you never will be.

For a decade, several decades ago, as marketing manager of a very significant business, I did a weekly sales record for about 50 SKU’s, by hand. It was in the late eighties, early nineties, the days before this was made easy.

Every Monday morning, I took about 15 minutes to record the sales on a sheet, with a 5 week rolling average, and a 5 week rolling forecast. Every month I did the same, but it took a little longer, as there were comparisons to the relevant quarter the year before, and budget, which took about 45 minutes.

In 10 years, I only ever got one forecast right, but was usually very close. Nobody took any notice at all of the forecasts of the sales force, despite them being part of the sales KPI’s. When manufacturing had choices to make about factory utilisation and what not to make, they came to me, and ignored the rest.

This was simply the building of a qualitative knowledge over time.

We routinely defer to ‘Bayesian’ statistics, a theorem proposed by English statistician Thomas Bayes in 1763, that dealt with the probability of a future event, and how that probability becomes more certain with the addition of information relevant to the outcome. We see Bayesian thinking all around us all the time. Every time we see an outcome to an action, and adjust before we repeat the action, we are using Bayesian thinking. Artillery is the obvious example. Use one cannon to get as close as you can, observe the degree to which you are long or short of the target, and adjust accordingly. When you land one on the target is when all  the other cannons in the group adopt the same settings and blast away.

In business, we can spent inordinate amounts of time and energy trying to get the last 5% accuracy, when it would be far better to take a decision, and move ahead knowing that the chances are you will be wrong, but able to adjust and accommodate the degree of ‘wrongness’ with far less effort. This is the basis of continuous improvement, Plan, Do, Check, Act. 

Bayesian theory at work, every day.

 

 

Are brands assets that can be revived?

 

It is generally accepted that brands are assets, the problem is how we value them. Often the valuation is post some sort of transaction, the business is sold, and the difference between net assets and the sale price is ‘goodwill’, which is code for stuff we do  not fully understand, but are confident will generate future cash flow.

Brands fall into that category.

So what happens when  a business reliant on a brand goes to the wall?

Does the brand go to the wall with it, or is there brand life after corporate death.

Thomas Cook did a Titanic last month, hit their iceberg after 178 years of trading. It is one of the better known brands on the planet, with irrevocable ties to travel.

Will the receivers sell it off for a token amount, along with the office furniture, or will someone recognise it has a value and buy it from the rubble and rebuild?

The business was founded in 1841 by Leicestershire cabinet maker Thomas Cook, as a means to carry supporters of the temperance movement around Britain to supporters meetings. It soon expanded into escorted tours to Europe, in 1855, the US in 1866, and progressively, the world.

Can such a brand  survive the corporate death of its owner is a compelling question. In a world that is commoditising and homogenising, a brand with 178 years of equity hidden deep in its DNA must have some value, too someone?

There have been signs of financial fragility in Thomas Cook for a while, leading to  a couple of financial engineering transactions over the past few years. Thomas Cook is, or was, 75% owned by Hong Kong listed conglomerate Fosun. After a dance with bankruptcy in 2011, saved by an injection of capital from shareholders, and some aggressive restructuring, including a sell-off of its plane fleet last year, it seemed to be recovering. Travellers still had sufficient confidence to book with them, only to be stranded by its demise.

There are all sorts of reasons being touted, Brexit stopping people travelling, a hot summer in England, Thomas Cook’s home, so they all went to Blackpool rather than to the Costa Del Sol to harass the locals, and obviously, the internet.

The end however, seemed not to have been expected.

If I ran British Airways, or even Qantas, I would have to be asking myself: what value would a global wholesale travel brand like Thomas Cook add to my portfolio?

It has been reported that Fosun may have bought the Thomas Cook brand from the receivers. Forgive me for thinking that perhaps they were the ones who best understood the brand value, and found an opportunity to capitalise on that knowledge by forcing liquidation and cherry-picking assets.

There are plenty of examples of brands that have experienced a potentially terminal problem and survived. Perhaps the best known are Apple, almost a corpse prior to the return of Steve Jobs in 1997, and Microsoft, sliding down the slippery slope to irrelevance, revived, and currently the most valuable business on the planet, again.

A revival indeed.

Domestically, there are a number of formerly powerful consumer brands that shout for a revival strategy. Meadow Lea,  hollowed out and dumped by successive owners in favour of giving retailers a margin boost, Fountain, once Australia’s largest sauce brand by a mile, a shadow of its former self, SPC, a global brand in an earlier time,  Rosella, Peters, Dairy Farmers, the list goes on. All have some residual untapped value to be extracted. All it would take is an extended time frame, relatively deep pockets, a clear consumer value proposition communicated consistently, innovation across the brands and operational processes, and the guts to have  go.

 

 

The 1,700th blog post: What I have learnt about writing!

The 1,700th blog post: What I have learnt about writing!

 

This is the 1700th post on the StrategyAudit site , and nobody is more surprised at the longevity of the effort than me. The first post was in March 2009, almost a decade ago.

I am not a writer, at least I used not to be, but now I am not so sure.

Over the course of the decade taken to reach this benchmark, I have learned a lot about the process of writing constantly, beyond what  I have learned from the process of formulating the ideas and organising them in a manner that is publishable.

This blog started as a marketing tool for StrategyAudit, but has become much more, and writing it delivered a number of lessons, mostly unexpected. 

 

Curiosity.

Formulating and ordering my thoughts and views on the topics I cover, then having to ensure they make sense, at least to me, has made me very curious. As a result, everything becomes research.

 Notes are assets.

I now make notes of all sorts of things I stumble across. Ideas, references, half-baked ideas that might become posts, information that may be of use somewhere. There are all kept in One note recorded into one of the 25 odd categories I have. This is an ever expanding resource from which I take all sorts of bits and pieces, and sometimes make  something new happen. There are thousands now in the file, and it constitutes a substantial bank of Intellectual Capital.

 Pencils are still valuable.

I still read with a pencil in my hand, and a highlighter not too far away. This serves to enable me to scribble in margins (of books, remember those) and highlight  bits worth referencing. Often these are then transferred into one note for further use later. There are thousands of tools out there, new fangled, digital things,  but for me, the simple act of writing something serves both the clarify the message and set it into some context in my brain, so I just might remember it when the time is right. (I also assume I forget some, but who knows)

 Revisit.

I cruise around my one note files on a regular basis, often looking for something I dimly recall, sometimes for an idea worth adding to something else I am writing, and sometimes just to refresh the memory. This cruising often sparks ideas as connections not seen before emerge.

 Assemble bits.

There are always a number of posts in production, with lots of notes, thoughts, and references, attached as well as drafts of what the final thing might look like. Some linger and evolve  for years before they get published, others get absorbed into other posts, while others are chucked when it becomes obvious there is no original idea in there, and I am just digging old ground.

 Raid a lot of banks.

Books are idea banks, the more you read, the greater the chance you will stumble across things that will be useful. I have always been a voracious reader, across a range of genres, and that has not changed, if anything,  become a bit more obsessive. It also pays to dump a book as soon as it demonstrates there is no value in it. Sometimes it hurts, I like to finish what I start, but where there is no prospect of a return on the investment in time, stop. The only caveat is that I do not throw them out, and therefore the prospect of moving at some point from the house where I have been  for over 30 years terrifies me.  

Marketing tool.

Finally, this blog has evolved as my primary marketing tool, which was the initial objective, but took a long time to evolve into anything meaningful. Overnight success after 10 years of effort.

The blog serves three vital additional functions:

Firstly, it is a repository of the ideas, views, checklists and tools I use in the consulting practice. This has become a critical function, and is not one I had anticipated at the beginning.

Secondly, it provides  a foundation of credibility to potential clients who may stumble across it, are referred to it, and to whom I send specific posts after a conversation of some sort. What I think about, how I approach marketing, strategic and enterprise improvement  assignments, and how I communicate can be easily seen by browsing a few posts.

Lastly, it offers thoughts, opinions, information, tools and insight based on my experience, and hopefully it is of value to some out there. When it is, I have added something to someone else, unknown, unpaid, but that knowledge of being able to help, is to me a an enormous reward.

 

Thanks for reading, commenting and sharing my musings, and I am enormously gratified that they are of value to an increasing number of people.

Have a great 2019, I know I will.

 

The reconciliation of advertising and content.

The reconciliation of advertising and content.

 

Self appointed digital marketing experts have for years been telling us that ‘Content is King’, and for a while it was. As a result, marketers have flung millions upon millions on the altar of ‘creating content’.

Piles of crap produced en masse with the odd gem well hidden, aiming at leveraging the reach of the web and social platforms, to deliver messages to consumers in a manner that demanded more attention than the ad breaks on TV, without the cost.

Google and Facebook developed a virtual duopoly, and so the dream of cost free reach has been squeezed out of existence.

To get reach you have to pay for it.

Isn’t this what we did when we paid for advertising?

Why pay for content aimed at ‘engaging,’ or some other cliché, if you are going to pay to have it delivered? You may as well make it an ad, that has as its objective generating a sale.

As Facebook and Google, and the other platforms as they evolve continue to squeeze organic reach, Content will morph back to something more like the advertising used in the 20th century to build the huge brands we all still buy.

Call it what it is, don’t be precious, it is Advertising!

Cartoon credit: Tom Fishburne of Marketoonist, who continues to express in simple drawings the complexity and hubris of modern marketing. I hope you have a great Christmas Tom.

As for me, I am taking a short break from my (unpaid) adverting disguised as content on this blog, to see if I can catch the elusive bloke in the red suit.  Thank you all for reading, sharing and often commenting on my  brainfarts, it is a privilege and pleasure to be able to communicate in this way.  Have a safe and merry Christmas and i will ‘see” you all in 2019.

 

 

 

 

 

Focus delivers productivity

Focus delivers productivity

When you fail to focus, you are scattering your capital.

Most importantly,  you scatter the vital Intellectual Capital it takes to succeed, as well as the financial capital that is a vital enabler of success.

Limited resources need to be focused on the point where they will do the most good, generate the most leverage.

The familiar investment advice to spread your investments, ‘do not put all your eggs in one basket’ holds when you are a passive financial investor.

However, when you are an active investor, not just of your financial resources, but of your limited time and energy, it is better to follow Andrew Carnegie’s advice to ‘Put all your eggs in the one basket, then do not take your eyes off the basket’

This advice holds equally as you consider your long term plans, what outcome do you truly want, to planning your day today. Ask yourself ‘What is the one thing I really need to get done today that will take me one step closer to the goal’

As Confucius is reported to have said somewhere around 500 BC, ‘Every journey starts with a single step’. That advice is as valid in today’s world as it was then, so make sure you take that step every day, and that it is one step closer to the goal.

 

 

9 ways to ‘stack the deck’ to win that vital tender

9 ways to ‘stack the deck’ to win that vital tender

 

The better prepared the tender, the better the chance of winning.

Hard to disagree with that statement, but then what makes for a better prepared tender?

While price has a role to play, it is only the deciding factor when all else is equal. Your task as a tenderer is to ensure that all else is not equal, and that your tender represents the best value to the enterprise wanting something  done. Then  you have stacked the deck!

A friend of mine is a senior engineer in a very large building contractor, one of those who is changing the skyline of Sydney on an almost daily basis.

The stress is killing him.

There is the constant need to keep the work flow of projects moving, identifying, preparing and winning tenders, then there is the stress that really kicks in as the construction side of the business tries to extract profit out of a ‘successful’ tender.

Talking to him I was reminded of Albert Einstein’s quote that ‘If I had an hour to fix a life defining problem, I would spend the first fifty minutes defining the problem, the rest is just maths’

When preparing a tender, the filling of the form is the maths. You have to get it right, all questions answered with quality copywriting, no spelling or punctuation errors, professional layout, but still just maths.

The key to winning is not in the maths, that is just table stakes, it is in the manner in which the vision of the contractor is reflected in the documents, the manner in which the tender you submit reflects value in the eyes of the judges. Each judge in the process will have a different definition of ‘Value’. The accountants will focus on cost, the engineers on the durability, regulatory and engineering integrity, the architects in the manner in which the construction reflects the aesthetic and functional innovations contained in their design, and the stakeholders in the return on investment, which is a function of both price to build and price that the construction can generate from buyers and users.

When you spend an extra $1 on the build that generates an extra $2 on the market value, the extra investment is a great one.

So what makes for a winning tender, that is also commercially successful as the job is completed?

Seems to me that the best measure is the degree to which the tenderer comes back and offers some sort of inside running for the next big project because of your performance in the last one or two

Tendering against someone who has that sort of inside running is usually a waste of time and money.

In the case of public infrastructure tenders, where price is a more important factor, you also have to manage the added complication of the nature of the bureaucratic processes and the politics of  the day.

Just ask Acciona, the Spanish firm who contracted to build the Sydney light rail project, which has become another infrastructure debacle. They seem to have taken the arguably inadequate tender docs literally, failed to do their own due diligence, quoted a price and time line, then found themselves in a billion dollar slanging match with the government.

When was the last time you saw a really complicated project RFQ that reflected all the complications that evolved during the construction?

So, how to stack the deck in your favour?

Perhaps a better way of putting it is to answer the question: ‘How can I quote the highest reasonable price, and still win the tender?

Know more about the project than the principal.

Understand what is really being requested. Most tender documents are dry tick the box type things that have nothing of the ‘humanity’ to which most projects are setting out to make a contribution. Focus on the humanity, and vision, not just the yes/no questions.

Understand the ‘vision’ of the principal.

Better yet, shape the vision, so that you can shape the guidelines of the tender docs to best suit your distinctive capabilities

Have relationships with all the ‘functional Buyers’ in the process.

It is always the case that there are a variety of roles played inside a tender process. Engineering, regulatory affairs, financial, architectural, and project management all will have a differing perspective of the end result, and the best route to get there. There is also always someone with the final call, a right of veto. Understanding the nuances of these functional variations, and accommodating them in the manner in which you approach both the documentation and the informal conversations that occur is vital.

Anticipate and leverage ‘Buyers’ personal inclinations.

The ‘buyers’ in the process, in addition to the functional bias, will have personal and emotional views about the best tender. Some will be for you, some against you, some ambivalent, and sometimes there is one prepared to ‘coach’ you on the side when you are a their preferred candidate. Being sensitive to these views, and leveraging them is often of critical importance.

Identify information holes.

No RFQ is ever complete, so identifying the ‘information holes’ not only gives you added credibility, it also gives you the opportunity to get a jump on competitors

Articulate any obvious shortcomings you may have.

Rarely would a tenderer be an absolutely perfect fit for a job, there will always be compromises that can be used as objections by those who may have an alternative favoured candidate. The best way to deal with objections is to raise them yourself, and deal with them. Once dismissed in this way, they generally cease to be valid objections.

Be proud of price.

Remember the old cliché ‘Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM’? It still applies. Human beings are always concerned with their own best interests, which correlates strongly to making as few mistakes as possible. Most are wary of the cheapest price, there is always a catch, either in the fine print, exclusions, or poorer quality, so there is always room to justify a reasonable price that delivers value but not at the rock bottom.

Tenders are competitions.

As in any competitive situation, the more you know about your competition, the better able you are to address their strengths and capitalise on their relative weaknesses. A tender process is not all about you, and your response, it is also about your response relative to the others in the race.

Attention to detail.

It is so obvious that it should not be in this list, but nevertheless, is often overlooked. Spelling and grammatical mistakes abound, as do simple editing errors, inadequately or unanswered questions, and an absence of simple but elegant and memorable graphic design. Make sure you do not repeat these mistakes of your competitors.

 

When you lose, as is inevitable from time to time, make sure you invest the time and effort in understanding why you lost, learn the lessons so the next time you are a step ahead.

Photo: industry.nsw.gov.au