In a post in January last year, I made 10 predictions for 2013. In the interests of accountability, it is reasonable to see how I went.
So, here goes:
- Marketing is digital and personal, mass marketing is dead! As with Mark Twain’s quip that reports of his death appear to be premature, so to are the reports of the death of mass marketing. However, the trend is clear, and the grim reaper is ‘a comin’. 3/5.
- Social media will overtake traditional news dissemination channels. Few of us wait these days for the evening news to hear about the events of the day. Even if we have not seen it in out twitter feeds, somebody we know has, and has told us. The role of traditional media as a disseminator of news, rather than a source of analysis of the, is clearly over. Arguably the analysis role is also kaput, as traditional media appears to have been highly politicised to reflect the views of the owners, that real analysis hardly occurs. Anyway, who goes to the 7.30 “analysis” shows on TV for anything beyond the foot in the door, inane, and emotive “journalism”. 4/5.
- A few smart SME’s will do very well, but the rest will at best struggle, and many will fail. Still true. 5/5.
- The new “cool” for our kids is to train as a “tradie” as there are insufficient fulfilling jobs left for those with modest, non vocational degrees, to fill demand from the aforementioned graduates. Still true, and getting truer. 4/5
- The shortage of willing and able workers will continue, as we no longer train people to work, we train them to “expect”. As above. A client of mine has a number of farm worker under 457 visas, several of them very qualified (pharmacy, teacher) working happily for wages unemployed Australians turn their noses up at. 5/5
- The 40% of SME’s who do not have web sites, or have sites that act only as an electronic brochure rather than as a magnet to their target customers need to realise they are missing the opportunity to grab the lifeline. Still true. Several services have evolved in the last 12 months that make it even easier. WordPress still rules the roost, but services like Weebly make it even easier again, there is no longer any excuse. This site, Yarralong.com run by a friend of my sisters was done in a few hours on Weebly by someone with few computer skills at all, just a bit of common sense and patience. 3/5
- “Big Data” the combination of traditional data bases and the behavioural and attitudinal data scavenged from social media will become the next big thing during 2013. I still believe this, but the change is slower than I expected. 2/5
- Mobile will take over from fixed line, comprehensively, and across all communication channels. Almost done. 4/5
- The economy will continue to slow, consumers are cautious and risk averse. No change there, the economy is slowing rapidly, in my anecdotal view, slower than the public figures would lead commentators relying on the numbers to see. 2014 will be a crappy year, notwithstanding the drop in the $A. Manufacturing is down the toilet, investment is slowing rapidly, retailers are struggling, large areas of rural Australia are again in the grip of drought, and more will tip into drought as winter approaches. The long paddock will be well used. 4/5
- Around July/August, the economy will stumble into a really nasty hole as we approach a Federal election. The hole was not as deep as I anticipated, but the numbers emerging in the post election period are pretty grim, and we wait to see if the new government has any real strategy, or if they will continue just to dump on the previous government, and focus on getting elected again by spending our children’s legacy. 4/5
Marking yourself can be self serving, so let me know what you think.