There but for the grace…

Here is something that should scare the pants off any thinking Australian.

Into the last week of an election campaign notable by the lack of anything notable, apart perhaps from the diligent application to the pork barrel to marginal seats in Queensland, and a prominent economist in the US comes out with an analysis of the US economy that calls things as they are, rather than as the political comrades over the last 30 years would like Americans, (and by default, the rest of us) to believe.

The US is bankrupt, services are being cut across the board, and it is becoming clear that the baby-boomers starting to retire will drain anything that remains in  the coffers, leaving a debt to their  children too big and complex to have been attacked by those who caused it.

Back to Australia, we are not in the hole like our mates in the US, but only because we have  been more lucky with the resources we have, and the numbers of people relative to the size of the resources prize , and perhaps the reforms of both parties, starting with the Hawke government, have been prepared to start to address the disease rather than just the symptoms, albeit not necessarily seeing it that way.

I see no discussion of anything I see as fundamental to the type of country we leave our children in the narrative of this current campaign, just spin around petty nonsense, with the occasional intrusion of something important being trivialised and reduced to populist slogans.

A retailers nightmare

How do you compare prices in a range of stores when standing in the aisle of your local supermarket?

The easy answer now, is “on your iphone“. A crowd called  Red Laser have an app that scans the code, compares the product/price to others scanned (presumably there is a data base somewhere out in the cloud) and using google maps is able to compare prices in your general location.

This development has the potential to re-write the equation between brands, the value of things like location and parking, and price in the retail space, and with effectively an FMCG retail duopoly in Australia, it will consume some headspace in Co-op castle in Melbourne, and the Taj in Sydney.

It is a “pity” we wasted millions on a “Grocery Watch” white elephant, a technology/populist bet in the early days of the Rudd government, when a couple of years down the track, a similar thing can be done better on your phone. We now have the same sort of thinking making a 45 billion dollar bet on the NBN, a bet that will impact on generations. Hope they get it right this time!

Gender equality; how?

  There is lots of hand-wringing going on again about gender equality in the executive suite the boardroom, and particularly the political arena.

All thinking people recognise the value of ensuring half our population has the opportunity to maximise the return to themselves and the community from their education, skill, determination, and ideas. The flip side, the one we are not allowed to talk about without being labeled sexist, is the social and financial cost of ensuring that equality, who should bear it, and under what circumstances sanctions should apply.

The initiative by the Australian Institute of Company Directors to mentor “board ready” women is terrific, and should be widely supported, but the regular discussion in regulatory circles of proscribing numbers is badly misplaced if the objective is the performance of our boards, rather than just some objective to achieve numerical equality.

The “Banksters” are back

“Banksters”, an emotive term coined by Father Charles Coughlin, a commentator in the early thirties as the practices of bankers and financiers during the boom in the lead up to the Wall Street crash in late 1929.

It seems that the Banksters are back in 2010 as the financial position of much of the developed world stutters, banks are making heaps by creating a mountain of debt.

Greece is effectively bankrupt, the UK and US have public debt at a level just below their GDP,  the overhang of retail housing debt in the US is huge, and at some point the Germans will get sick of having their economy effectively underwriting the value of the Euro,  but the bankers are back from the brink, especially in the US, making lots of money for themselves while the financial systems remain  broken.

In Australia, small businesses are starving for capital, Governments appear generally  incapable of responsibly running public finance in the face of the temptation to pork barrel regularly due to the election cycle, but we have a bogus debate about the evils of public debt at around 6% of GDP, when it is dwarfed by private debt built to fund the banksters lifestyles, at around 150% of GDP. The clincher, yesterday the Commonwealth bank announced a profit of 6.1 Billion dollars. I have no problem with profits, even large ones, but this one is in the context of a government guarantee of deposits for the major banks during the crunch, which led to a flight of capital from those who could provide competition to the big 4 banks, reducing competitive pressure, and fattening the remaining banks margins as a result .

The real question is “will we wake up in time?”

Rule of thirds

Sitting around many board and advisory tables over the years, I have  observed that those that are successful follow what I have started to call the rule of thirds. Actually, there are four rules, but the first is generic to all meetings: have an agenda, follow it, take minutes, allocate a specific time to end, and follow up. The other three relate to the manner of organization of the agenda and are:

1/3 review the financials, the past period, and coming periods, with particular emphasis on cash generation.

1/3 Consider the immediate issues, gain agreement on actions, outcomes and timetables,

1/3 Consider the longer term issues, all those things that will not impact on the immediate performance of the business, but are in the medium to long term critical for survival.

Most board meetings tend to spend considerable time on the first, a bit on the second, and little on the third, but organizing the time allocated, and being disciplined about the manner in which the time is spent will pay dividends.