SME’s take heart!

Ask a SME manager in packaged goods, “would you like a phone call from Woolworths ordering stock of your new product for every store in the country?” and you will most likely get a tear with the nodded head.

Enter the “Orabrush” story, they got the call from Walmart without any of the usual begging.

There are many hurdles for SME’s in the packaged goods industry to jump before distribution in the major retailers can be obtained, and then the problems really start, because SME’s lack the resources to move the product off shelf before the trial period runs out.

Social media has helped over the past couple of years, you now have the opportunity to reach highly targeted groups of consumers, and deliver them a message, but generally it has not helped much to get the product on shelf in the first place.

Orabrush really broke the mass market model with a product I still find odd, but great creativity and lateral thinking combined with social media has turned the product into a hit, and can now be found in Walmart stores around the world

Have a look at the Youtube ads in the link, gems.

 

To train or not to train.

One of my clients, a modest sized business inhabiting a narrowing but quite deep niche of manufacturing,  has over a period of time put considerable resources into training their essenial technical people to be expert in the fields vital to their success.

A topic of discussion and concern has always been, “how do I get my investment back when I train them, and they leave?”

Perhaps the better question to ask is “what happens if we do not train them, and they stay?”

“Dad Dancing”

 What a great term, coined by Euan Semple, to describe the phenomenon of older (largely) male senior executives pretending they have “got” social media.

Like many others, I spend a lot of time trying to persuade people of the value that can be generated by intelligent use of social media, most of those people run enterprises, and usually reluctantly can be persuaded to put a modest amount of resources into SM, often I think because their golf partner was telling them on the 19th last week that he has been able to cut the advertising budget by 50% by using SM.

Anyway, they become superficially engaged, in their hearts thinking this social media stuff is just their almost adult children behaving badly and then for some inexplicable reason, posting the footage on face book.

The term “Dad Dancing,” perfectly invokes a picture of the gyrations and uncoordinated usually frenetic and short term activity that emerges from such a conversion.

Reference class forecasting

People routinely forecast optimistically, they under-forecast costs, and over-forecast outcomes. We have all seen it happen repeatedly in businesses and the public sector, most of us have seen it on  personal level.

Demand planning is the core of effective operational optimisation, and differs from simply sales forecasting, in that it looks at the drivers of demand, rather than drivers of sales, often a big difference, and it is free of the bogy of just assuming the past will be repeated, even if massaged by some fancy algorithm.

Demand planning has been enhanced by the developments in what are in effect benchmarking of similar situations, collectively called Reference Class Forecasting by its Nobel prize winning proponents,  Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.

Demand planning is hard to do well, but most useful things are.

SME’s in FMCG in a tight spot.

SME’s in the Australian food industry are up against it if they see their futures as suppliers to the major chains, who require a combination of utter commitment, globally competitive costs, and supply certainty requiring substantial scale and the attendant capital base. 

Added to all that, small business has it all in front of them in any stoush with a large corporation. Metcash, the nations largest wholesaler, and effectively the third force in Australian FMCG via its supply arrangements with independent retailers seems to relish a fight.

They chose to fight Andrew Bunn, a small retailer in Canberra who went to the wall, and then accused Metcash of breaking their supply contract. The blue Metcash then  picked with the  ACCC over their proposed purchase of Franklins has been entertaining. Metcash informed the ACCC they would go ahead with their purchase of the Franklins chain from Pick n Pay before the ACCC delivered its decision, ballsy call, justified as the Federal Court gave them the go-ahead, but the ACCC is now appealing the decision. Who knows what will happen next, but the ACCC must assert its power in the marketplace or become irrelevant, but whilst the legal stuff drags on Franklins is bleeding cash, virtually removing them from the scene as an ongoing concern, whoever owns them.

I’m sure there is more to come, but none of it matters much to the SME manufacturer facing a small number of retail gorillas who exercise their power ruthlessly, and without any empathy with their suppliers. The ghost of Eric Bender who inhabits the memory of the few of us still around who dealt with him, would shake his head in dismay, and take another drag.