In the tsunami of analysis seeking to understand the loss of the election by Labor, I have yet to hear anyone put their finger on what I consider to be the real reason.
Psychology.
Specifically Prospect Theory.
Prospect Theory was articulated by Nobel laureate Danial Kahneman in his great book (required reading) ‘Thinking Fast & Slow’. It is the psychological relationship between the pain of a prospective loss, compared to the pleasure of a prospective gain. In the published theory Kahneman and his collaborator Amos Tversky put the effect as twice the expected pleasure from the gain necessary to overcome the prospective pain of loss. However, in interviews, he has said that the relationship is more like 5-7 times, but when writing the papers, they thought nobody would believe them, so they settled on twice.
Think about this relationship as it applied to the offers of the two major parties on Saturday.
Labor promised some pain for a few, but failed to articulate who the few were, and justify the pain, so all voters saw was ‘Pain’. By contrast, the Liberals promised no pain, and lots of gain, albeit almost totally bereft of detail beyond election rhetoric.
It was not so obvious to me beforehand, but with the benefit of that magnificent justifying mechanism, hindsight, it is as obvious as the nose on your face. Labor did not just need a better salesman, which they certainly did, they also needed someone who understood the psychology underpinning successful marketing.
Header cartoon is from www.tomgauld.com with my thanks.
As I said, Bill was a dud salesman, and who knows about Albo, although he does have a nickname which seems to be a start.
My view is that thought put into the manner in which the proposed policies were communicated would have gone a long way towards a big win, even of Bill was the chief spokesperson.
Treating the electorate with the respect it deserves, offering a vision, and the roadmap of how to get there, as well as a view of the alternative outcomes cannot be done in soundbites amongst TV cameras as you are kissing babies and laying bricks.
It really is pretty simple communications 101, and both parties failed. It is just the Scomo is better at the kissing of babies while mumbling inanities and bullshit, while smiling that got him over the line.
I wonder if he can find a cabinet that can do anything more than recite lines?
Many believe they tried way too many reforms at once. So their message got diluted. The Coalition was that Shorten was going to raise everyone’s taxes and hurt jobs. Some voters said they had not decided even as they headed into the voting booths.
I hadn’t thought of the pain vs gain psychology approach.
Bill was a very unlikeable person as well. And in today’s world of superficial everything, that is important. Perhaps Albo could have sold some of these changes better. We’ll soon know 🙂
Scott