Hindsight planning is a process of putting yourself as realistically as possible into the ‘headspace’ where you have achieved the goals you set, and then ‘plan backwards’. It sounds like a semantic game, but it is not. It is rooted in Psychology.
As Daniel Kahneman put it: ‘Once you adopt a new view of the world, or a part of it, you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed’
Having agreed the shape and size of the business in 1, 3, or 5 years, whatever horizon you have agreed on, the task now is to ‘put yourself there’.
The difficult choices that are needed become more obvious when you can better see the challenging questions you need to ask.
Imagine the outcome has been achieved, and then articulate the steps you have taken in that journey. This is an exercise in perspective. Working backwards enables you to test ideas, assumptions, and choices, against an outcome you have agreed has already occurred, albeit in your collective minds. In that way, a ‘reality filter’ of sorts has been applied.
Some of the obvious questions that need to be answered may be:
- Where did the revenue come from? Growth is not possible in the absence of revenue, so list the sources. Current customers, new customers, channels, business models, products, technical achievements, geographies, and so on. However, do not just list them, articulate in some detail how it has happened. Again, that past perspective adds real ‘grunt’ to the conversations.
- Where did the capital come from? Growth is a veracious consumer of resources, particularly capital. How did you fund that growth? Reinvestment of retained earnings, capital raising from friends and family, or from the markets, public and private, debt finance considering the necessity for assets as collateral?
- What is the dominant business model? Are you a middleman, retailer, on-line item sales, subscription sales, did you achieve a position to monetise arbitrage opportunities? Digital has delivered a host of new and emerging business models to us over the last decade, but one thing that has become clear, if it was not already, is that differing business models do not live comfortably in the same house. Therefore, if your revenue streams come from different business models, the structure of your resulting business needs to be decentralised by those differing business models.
- What is the ideal corporate structure? Have you remained private, are you publicly owned, a partnership, Joint venture, franchise system? There are many options, and as in the previous question, potential siblings rarely successfully live in the same house.
- What capabilities were required to succeed, and where did you find them? This is a question in two parts. Firstly, what capabilities were required from individuals, technical, strategic, financial, and all the other factors that make human beings able to contribute? Secondly, what were the organisational, leadership and cultural factors that enabled the organisation to leverage the capabilities the individuals brought in each morning as they turned up to work.
- Which customers, markets, products, technologies, relationships, were critical to the success? The answers to these questions are a ‘must know’ level. Why did those customers come to you, choosing not to go to a competitor? What is the factor that differentiated you from the others?
- Which competitors proved to be the most potent? Anticipating competitive action, and planning to accommodate the impact is a necessary part of every plan, as noted previously.
- Where did the new competitors come from? New competition almost always comes from the fringes, and often outside the normal scope of most extrapolative planning. Looking widely at what is happening in other markets, and other technologies may offer insights to where new, and more potent competition may come from. Honda started in motor bikes with the Honda 50, selling it to students in California as cheap local transport. None of the incumbents, Triumph, Norton, Harley, saw them coming, they thought they were toys, being bought by people who would never buy a big bike. Blockbuster ‘owned’ video, and could have bought Netfliks for $50 million, but thought them irrelevant, not even an irritation. 5 years later Blockbuster was broke.
- What is the emerging source of customer value in the market? Nothing new will be bought in the absence of a reason to switch from the incumbents, which always means new value has been created, somehow. How did you create yours?
- What did we do wrong, and what did we learn? You learn more from your mistakes than you do from the things you got right. Make sure ‘learning’ is part of the cultural DNA of your business.
When you have the answers to all these questions, and probably many others, found with the benefit of the virtual hindsight, you will be in a powerful marketing position, able to write the plans that double-down on the things that will deliver the objectives and success.
Normally, especially when things go wrong, we conduct a post-mortem to understand why they went pear-shaped.
Hindsight planning is in effect a pre-mortem.
It looks at all the things that could have gone wrong, all the problems that emerged, workable solutions considered, and what works and what did not.
When you have done that well, the chances of being surprised by something are significantly reduces, while your ability to respond is increased.
Header cartoon credit: Tom Gauld at www.tomgauld.com
