The Reserve Bank released the latest inflation figures a week or so ago. The year-end number was 3.5%, significantly influenced by a few highly volatile items like petrol. Stripping those out, the underlaying rate was 2.6%. These numbers do not bode well for the RBA target rate of 2-3 percent average over time.
It would appear that despite the denials, the reserve will be forced into increasing the official rate well before their earlier undertaking not to do so until 2024.
From the graph in the header, should we sneak back to official rates above 6%, last seen in the late 80’s, we will have a cohort of managers making strategic decision in an environment they have never experienced.
That is not a good omen.
I well remember paying 17.5% rate on my first mortgage around 1983, an experience that will never be forgotten. The little equity I had built up in the previous 2 years since borrowing the money to buy that first house, was swallowed up while my very young family ate a lot of potatoes and sausage.
Managing a business in a period of inflation puts a lot of pressure on things the cohort of younger senior managers have not ever had to worry much about to still deliver acceptable returns. Now they will be faced with some nasty choices:
- Increase prices, annoying customers, and risking volume loss, and the associated relative increase in overheads.
- Annoying stakeholders by holding prices resulting in decreasing margins as inflation driven costs increase.
- Cutting costs which in a crisis normally means cutting ‘heads’, which rarely makes you popular in the lunchroom.
- Reducing investment in everything from advertising to R&D and new product introductions, which has the compounding impact of making tomorrow’s cash flow and profitability that much harder to generate.
The most usual course for the inexperienced is to generate lots of words, but take no or only ‘fence-sitting’ action until their options have closed in. They then stir into action with emphasis on the last two options, leaving it to the following leadership to pick up the pieces.
The much harder work of refining product portfolios, brand development, generating operational ‘flow’, ensuring strategic alignment, building resilient supply chains, process flow optimisation, business model innovation, and all the rest, should not be activities stimulated by some sort of crisis. They are the responsibility of managers always, but often lost, obscured in the better times when getting a bit fatter is the most common characteristic.
Header Image credit:. Source World bank.
