Oct 19, 2020 | Analytics, Marketing
How do you identify those who might emerge as competitors?
Might as well ask what the weather will be like next week, or next year. Just looking out the window will not help much, as things tend to change pretty quickly.
So it is with identifying potential competitors and the new value propositions they offer. However, like forecasting the weather, there are indicators, models that can be applied that will at least throw some light on the question.
It seems to me that there are three perspectives to this question, best described by the usual ‘think outside the box’ metaphor.
- Competitors from inside the current box
- Competitors from outside the current box
- Competitors from outside the postcode.
Leaving aside the great benefit of hindsight, it is generally pretty easy to see potential competitors from inside your current box. You are already rubbing up against them in some way, technically, geographically; you might have common customers for products with slightly different characteristics or value propositions. There is always the possibility for someone in an adjacent market expanding their control of the supply chain vertically, which will bring them into competition with you. Now, there are many digital tools that will assist the process from google key word searches, to explicitly looking at where similar offerings are emerging via social media. In addition, these often obvious emerging competitors are usually the ones your sales force are always on about, as they are the dog that got their homework, often by making cut price offerings of stripped down products to your customers.
Identifying potential competitors from outside the box is a bit harder. it is also increasingly important, as the barriers to entry to many industries have been blown away.
To do this well requires focussed critical thinking, and understanding of the drivers of purchase by your customers, the evolution of those purchase drivers, and the current sources of purchase friction encountered by customers. This takes some commitment to longer term strategic thinking.
Identifying those potential competitors from outside the postcode in a disciplined manner is extraordinarily hard, and beyond the resources of any SME I have ever seen. It not only requires the sort of time for deep thinking and scenario analysis available only to large organisations, it requires a very ‘absorbent’ innovation culture, one that accepts the inevitability of major disruption, and explicitly goes about discovering what those sources of disruption might be, and then disrupting themselves.
This sort of out of the postcode thinking opens up your mind to potential competitors. It also opens your mind to potential sources of future growth for yourself. As a result, having as a part of your strategic thinking and review process an explicit and disciplined ideation process should be a part of every strategic exercise and review.
These three perspectives all have in common the requirement that any enterprise, to be successful competitively over the long term, needs to ‘understand itself’ and be very sensitive to changes in their operating and competitive environment. Then, they have to be able to respond, which is often the hardest bit because it demands change. In the case of out of the postcode opportunities, radical change, and a high level of risk tolerance are required. As Sun Tzu is recorded as having said ‘know others and know thyself, and you will not be endangered by innumerable battles”.
The header illustration comes form the extensive StrategyAudit toolbox.
Oct 16, 2020 | Analytics, Management, Operations
Certainty in forecasting is the holy grail, being certain of the future means success. However, as we know the only thing we know for certain about the future, is that it will not be the same as the past, or present.
Quantifying uncertainty appears to be an oxymoron, but reducing the degree of uncertainty would be a really useful competitive outcome.
When you explicitly set about quantifying the degree of uncertainty, risk, in a decision, you create a culture where people look for numbers not just supporting their position, but those that may lead to an alternative conclusion. This transparency of forecasts that underpin resource allocation decisions is enormously valuable.
How do you go about this?
- Start at the top. Like everything, behaviour in an enterprise is modelled on behaviour at the top. If you want those in an enterprise to take data seriously, those at the top need to not just take it seriously, but be seen to be doing just that.
- Make data widely available, and subject to detailed examination and analysis. In other words, ‘Democratise’ it, and ensure that all voices with a view based on the numbers are heard.
- Ensure data is used to show all sides of a question. In the absence of data showing every side of a proposition, the presence of data that emphasises one part of a debate at the expense of another will lead to bias. Data is not biased, but people usually are. In the absence of an explicit determination to find data and opinion that runs counter to an existing position, bias will intrude.
- Educate stakeholders in their understanding of the sources and relative value of data.
- Build models with care, and ensure they are tested against outcomes forecast, and continuously improved.
- Choose performance measures with care, make sure there are no vanity or one sided measures included, and that they reflect outcomes rather than activities.
- Explicit review of the causes of variances between a forecast and the actual outcomes is essential. This review process, and the understanding that will evolve will lead to improvement in the accuracy of forecasts over time.
Data is agnostic, the process of turning it into knowledge is not. Ensure that the knowledge that you use to inform the forecasts of the future are based on agnostic analysis, uninfluenced by biases of any sort. This is a really tough cultural objective, as human beings are inherently biased; it is a cognitive tool that enables us to function by freeing up ‘head space’ reducing the risk of being overwhelmed.
Consistent forecast accuracy is virtually impossible, but being consistently more accurate than your competition, while very tough, is not. Forecast accuracy is therefore a source of significant competitive advantage.
Header cartoon courtesy Scott Adams and his side-kick, Dilbert.
Forecast in cartoons
Oct 14, 2020 | Governance, Leadership, Management
A key part of managing activity is to record it as necessary to be done, check it off when done, and make any observation necessary for next time.
This holds true from the development of a strategy down to the daily activities on the shop floor, and everything in between. The only difference is the scale of the things that are being recorded, discussed, and allocated to a responsible person, and perhaps the time between reconciliations.
Years ago I obtained a private pilots licence. An essential part of the training was to have a list of items to be checked off prior to take-off. In that case, it was not a written checklist, as when you are filling in a written checklist yourself, it is too easy to just run down the list and tick all the items as done. In that case the list was physical: my hand went to the item being checked off in the plane ‘walk-around’, and then in the cockpit, touching the item concerned. This addition of the physical to the memorised and written list ensured it was done. In the cockpit of a commercial airliner, where there is a co-pilot, the co-pilot has the written checklist, which he reads out to the captain, who checks the status and reports back for recording by the co-pilot.
Checklists serve a number of purposes:
- They serve as a specific reminder, as our memories are faulty, and prone to taking the easy way out.
- Repeating a list builds memory and habit, and when a habit is broken, we become uncomfortable, our ‘survival’ 6th sense kicks in.
- It provides assurance that the item has been done in an accountable manner.
- It provides the opportunity for specific feedback and immediate remedial action. In a factory this may be to complete an unfinished run from the previous shift, deliver preventative maintenance to a piece of machinery, and a thousand other things.
- It acts as a training profile to be followed by newcomers. Theoretically this should enable someone with no knowledge of the specific process to be able to complete it, simply by following the checklist.
- It allocates responsibility for actions to be done. During the resurrection of Ford by Alan Mulally, he had a daily meeting with his direct reports, in which they reported on the activities they had been allocated from the previous day. Clearly this process is not just for the factory floor.
- During those meetings Mulally also had the daily Ford cash balance calculated and shown, which underlined the importance of cash to the business during a time when they were losing money at a huge rate.
- Lists enable the allocation of priorities, so that resources can be allocated in the most impactful manner.
- Lists act as ‘grease’ for collaboration
Have you ever noticed that those who have the discipline to do daily and weekly checklists for themselves, and stick to them, appear more productive than their peers?
That is generally because they are.
Header photo credit: NASA
Oct 12, 2020 | Analytics, Marketing
It is easy to define the value of a piece of machinery. It is the revenue generated by the machine, divided by the costs to generate that revenue.
Accounting with the benefit of hindsight is easy. It is not so easy when forecasting what the future value may be. Forecasting when the impact of the many relevant variables can only be estimated is an exercise in fortune telling. Quantifying these relative unknowns to allocate a numerical ‘value’ becomes a task with several parts.
- Defining the factors that may impact the calculation
- Allocating a relative weight to all the identified factors
- Determining the ‘base’ figure from which to build the numbers that enable a calculation.
- Repeating the above process for all the costs involved.
The calculation is then easier:
Value = weighted benefit 1 x weighted benefit 2 x weighted benefit 3: divided by:
weighted cost 1 x weighted cost 2 x weighted cost 3.
It becomes way harder when setting out to value an intangible asset, such as the value of a brand. For example, a pair of sunglasses purchased in a general retailer for a fraction of the price of an almost identical pair, apart from a brand, sold through a specialist optical retailer. Too many, the more expensive branded glasses represent value for a range of emotional reasons, to others, they would be a rip-off.
At some point early on, and subjected to continuing evolution based on experience and research, you need to be able to identify the factors that add value to a target customer, and their relative contribution to the end result.
Always, the complicating factor is context.
I need a new computer, this one is getting a bit old, and while it still does the job well, at some point, something will reach the end of its life, and ‘poof’, gone. At that point the context changes, as does the value equation.
What was something needed but not urgent, that had a calculable value, suddenly becomes a whole new game, as I need the new computer: Now!
A whole different value equation!
The variables may be the same, but the relative weights have changed dramatically, determined by context.
Oct 9, 2020 | Customers, Management
I just had another of those moments that caused an unpleasant ‘tummy churn’.
A post from a so called ‘business coach’ that promised a ‘business turnaround in 90 days’.
Perhaps they know something I do not.
Having stumbled around in this arena for 35 years, I have not yet found anything like the template that can make any sort of promise like that.
Yes, there are sensible activities you can do that when done well will create the opportunities for significant change and improvement. Sometimes a complete revision of the business can be kicked off, but events rarely happen like that in the absence of an outside catalyst.
Every successful turnaround I have seen, or been involved with, has had four common characteristics:
- They have identified and taken immediate action that addresses the current activities that cost more than they generate in customer value. In other words, putting customer service and satisfaction at the centre of consideration.
- They have taken the immediate opportunities, often staring them in the face, to increase revenue
- They have removed the usually obvious wasted effort and activity which when eliminated delivers incremental cost free capacity.
- They have ensured that the actions taken are scalable.
In that 4 part formula is a host of improvement opportunity, and difficulty.
And, it is never completed in 90 days. It is a journey, with a first 90 days, followed by another, and another.
To promise a ‘90 day turn-around’ is fantasy. It simply cannot be delivered; best you can do is to take a big first step along the road. However, taking that first step is often the hardest one to take.
Beware of the gold tooth brigade!
