Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

 

My mother lives by herself in a large regional city in NSW. At 90 she is pretty remarkable,  although some of the bits are wearing out, so she has a pharmacological regime that would make your average teenage party-goer green with envy.

Her pills are made up from the actives by a local chemist with the compounding License that allows him to assemble her prescriptions and combine them, which he then delivers weekly in a pack that reflects the changing nature of the prescriptions written by her doctor.

A great service, and the young entrepreneurial pharmacist has the geriatric market in the town sewn up.

I was thinking of him last week when I saw that Amazon had bought US startup Pillpack for almost a billion dollars. As  a result, the share prices of listed pharmacy retailers, Walgreens and others fell into a hole, a now common outcome when Amazon comes around.

Jeff Bezos has long signaled his interest in the pharmacy market, being a part of Drugstore.com in the 90’s which was eventually bought by drug store chain Walgreens for $400 million, and closed down. He has made other investments in various areas of the health industry over a long period, which should have provided an early warning alarm to the incumbents.  More recently he has launched a venture in collaboration with Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan to disrupt the huge but cosey health insurance market.

I can only wonder at the hand wringing going on in the Walgreens board room. They had a decade to build a moat around their business,  but failed to do so, and now the pirate has returned. This is exactly the same mistake Blockbuster made a couple of years later, by dismissing the overtures of Netflicks, and disappeared as a result. By contrast, the young pharmacist in Armidale will be well insulated, and I suspect will have his own plans to keep his business thriving. Meanwhile I suspect the Pharmacy Guild in Australia will again tread the road of trying to use the regulations as a protective mechanism, and try to fight the tide of change, which is ultimately going to fail.

As I have noted before, love him or hate him, Jeff Bezos is changing the world, perhaps like none before him. The incumbent public  and private institutions of our democratic western economy simply seem unable to accommodate the inevitability of the changes and their impact, and show no sign of being able to evolve sufficiently to do so. The assault on the pharmacy market is simply another example of the speed and certainty of change, which without sufficient ‘strategic intelligence’ being applied, will be the end for status quo driven incumbents.

When you need some of that rare strategic intelligence, more focused than is demonstrated in these pages, call me.

 

10 considerations to make better pricing decisions

10 considerations to make better pricing decisions

Setting the price is always challenging, the decision often left to the last thing.

Wrong.

Your pricing strategy should be a part of your overall strategy as decisions in other places have a huge impact on the best way to maximise your return from your  price.

Cost should have no say.

Customers do  not care about what it cost you to produce the product they are buying, they only care about the value they receive from the purchase. Understanding the value delivery is the real key, and everything else should flow from it.

What the market says should only be an influence.

If your product is the same as everyone else’s, in a homogenised mass market, where there is no source of differentiation, you cannot win. At best you will get a share in line with the number of direct competitors, at worst, chase the price down to the floor and everyone goes broke. This is a market you should not be in.

Differentiation.

Without some sort of differentiation that adds value to customers, you will be forever  in a price war. There is always a source of some differentiation, somewhere, if you look hard enough.  Something that adds value to  a segment of the market, so find that source of differentiation, understand the value it adds, and price for that. This may mean that many, perhaps even most in some circumstances, will reject you as being ‘too expensive’, which is fine, let your less focused competitors go broke alone.

Ensure the pricing model scales.

Pricing  models vary along with the business model in place. From a strategic perspective, when you choose a pricing model, it is very hard to adjust later to suit a different business model. For example if you start selling on line and take a 50% gross margin, that may look good until a distributor comes along and wants to sell your product through his system, but requires a further 50% margin to do so. There is not enough in it for you both.

Less distribution is sometimes more profit.

Uncontrolled distribution leads to conflicts in the pricing requirements of the different  business models, and can lead to a race to the bottom which no one  wins

The classic case is Australian FMCG retail. The two retail gorillas account for 70% of FMCG sales, so have a lot of power in the pricing discussions. They are largely unconcerned about your margins, only concerned with theirs, and especially theirs  compared to the alternative gorilla. When you go with them, you are trading volume for margin. At the same price point you can sell much less product at higher delivered margins through  more limited channels and have more in your pocket at the end.

I have had a  number of farmers as clients over the years, selling produce to the gorillas, investing significant capital to deliver the volumes but having nothing left over at the end. Mostly they also sell through alternative channels, from farmers markets to a few independent retailers, and these are always more profitable than the gorillas. It is a choice you need to make and my advice is always to treat the gorilla as a way of covering a bit more overhead, but when you get to the point of needing their volumes to pay the bills, you are in real trouble.

Simple trading terms.

Trading terms are just another way of packaging discounts, and should be as simple as possible.

The simpler and more consistent they are the better, as complicated terms have a habit of creating heavy and usually unseen transaction costs in your business. The other risk is that you end up using the terms to give favorable net prices to someone over another, and when buyers move, they take the terms books with them, so look out.

Again, the experience of FMCG retail is instructive. Aldi has ‘net net’ terms, the price is the price, whereas the gorillas insist in complicating terms and that delivers them added margins, and you the transaction costs. It is much cheaper to do business with Aldi, as there are fewer transaction and overhead costs, but you still play by their rules, which do not include your proprietary brands.

One of the most insidious terms component is payment terms. It is hard to resist the temptation to extend under pressure, but in the long run always better to do so. The shorter the time taken for customers to pay you the money they owe you the better, and long terms become more damaging as interest rates rise.

Demand creation.

When there is demand for your product, you can make more rewarding pricing decisions, than  when you are just competing in a commodity market. Therefore it is better to spend your money creating demand than funding discounts.

Going hand in hand with demand creation is the notion of what market you want to play in. Mass markets have price expectations and so do luxury ones, although they may sell less volume. This is associated with the business model and the strategic choices you make about the markets you will play in, and the way you play. Niches always deliver better margins, question is how much is left at the end as the volumes will be lower and product costs usually higher.

Customer value.

When the customer wants and needs your product and cannot get it or any substitute anywhere else, you have monopoly pricing power, something businesses love and regulators hate.  The classic economics 101 supply/demand pricing model, ignores two basic tenets: First, there is always a substitute somewhere, in some way, even if it is going without. Second, human behaviour is never just rational, and economic theory assumes both rationality and perfect knowledge. Value delivered should always be seen from the perspective of the customer, and different customers will assess the value delivered differently.

However, understanding the drivers of value that your ideal customers will have delivered by your product enables you to price at the point of maximum satisfaction for them, and margin for you.

Anchoring.

It is always better to start high, as you can if necessary come back a bit. By contrast, starting low and then trying to increase prices is enormously difficult. There is a process called ‘Anchoring’ in psychology that applies directly to the manner in which you set prices. Whatever is the first price identified becomes the anchor around which the rest of the conversation is ‘anchored’. Anchoring low means you will end up low, anchoring high usually means you end up higher than you would have otherwise.

Iteration. 

Finally, testing differing pricing options should be in most cases an ongoing, iterative process. We now have tools that will deliver real time feedback in many, particularly consumer, markets, so you can adjust prices for an optimised outcome as you gather experience and market intelligence. On line, ‘dynamic pricing’ driven by machine learning and masses of personalised data will become the norm in the very near future. In some areas, it is already here, and I can only see that increasing relentlessly, so you had better be ready.

None of this is easy, but setting the best price for your market that reflects your best interests  is crucial to sustained success. Call me when some deep experience is required.

Cartoon credit: Scott Adams and Dilbert. Nailed it!

 

Uncovering the Strategic Vs Financial value of your business.

Uncovering the Strategic Vs Financial value of your business.

The valuations put on businesses are typically a calculation based on future earnings, a financial calculation that has always been the basis of company valuations.

We understand it well. Take current earnings and multiply them by a multiple that represents a picture of future earnings. Do some cash flow projections, and apply some risk factors to them,  punch out a NPV and IRR calculations, and bingo, a value.

The financial value of a business.
However, that does not explain the valuations that some businesses reflect when they are sold.

The most obvious example is  Instagram, bought by Facebook for a billion dollars in 2012 when it was little more than a startup in a garage with 13 employees and 30 million users.  Today it has almost a billon users, still growing by leaps and bounds daily, and some put the value north of $50 billion.

The reason it was worth so much at the time, way beyond any financial calculation was its strategic value to Facebook. Instagram had found the mobile crack in desk bound Facebooks amour, and plugging it in a world that was converting to mobile at geometric rates was essential. Hence the strategic value of Instagram.

The same sort of situation faced Google when they were considering YouTube. Its financial value was zero, perhaps negative given the exposure to lawsuits, but Google paid $1.7 billion for it in 2006 when it was still in the garage.  Why? Guess what the second most used search tool in the world is today, yes YouTube. Google was simply protecting its position as the giant in search from a potential intruder, and it had nothing to do with the potential of YouTube to make money.

What is your business worth?

Go to most competent accountants or business brokers and they will give you a range based on the financial parameters and what similar businesses have sold for recently. Easy if you are selling a hairdresser or metal bashing business, but harder when there are few similar businesses being sold.

In that case there is a lot more research and strategic thinking required to uncover the hidden strategic value your business may have to someone, usually unexpected.

Start digging well before the day comes when you want to sell, it may take a while!

 

Is a continuing investment in content valuable?

Is a continuing investment in content valuable?

 

In early 2014 Mark Schaefer posted a piece titled ‘Content shock: Why content marketing is not a sustainable strategy’   on his website.

To me, it is one of the few pieces of truly intelligent strategic thinking I have seen on the topic of ‘Content’.

In the post he poses the proposition that because posting content is free, there would come a tipping point where there was so much content in total, and much of it just regurgitated rubbish, simply generated because it is fashionable, that the impact would be lost.

I think we have passed the point, illustrated in this guest  post from Buzzsumo on Mark’s site.

The data certainly confirms what I see on my site, and in my digital travels every day, but we should not  be surprised. We all know that if something is free, it carries very little value or credibility.

Why then do we continue producing content?

Simple answer: Because when you produce quality, original, thought provoking, instructive and challenging content, it does still deliver a worthwhile strategic outcome. You become seen as an expert, or at least someone worth talking to in your domain.

Producing such content on a continuous basis is very difficult and time consuming. It has a very long lead time before the benefits kick in, so most either give up, or outsource it and generally end up adding to the pile of digital rubbish.

There is a second significant challenge.

Once you produce this great, useful content, you have to get it seen. The biggest challenge in marketing these days is getting attention, and once having got it, not blowing the chance to do something constructive with it, to engage with those to whom you can add value.

This implies a whole lot of other basic marketing challenges, including that you have identified closely your ideal customer, and that you have a closely defined value proposition for them.

Then you have to ‘find‘ them, by one of any number of means, that can involve any or all of a number of strategies leveraging digital media and social platforms, as well as good old fashioned advertising and networking. Having found them, the next step is to engage them in a process that leads to a mutually beneficial commercial relationship.

Great content can drive all these steps.

Once created, great content is the gift that keeps giving. Even if you do not take the obvious steps of refurbishing great content as videos, longer and shorter versions from a tweet to a book, and reposting on various alternative platforms, a great post will continue to deliver viewers to your site, as does this one for me.

The numbers are not spectacular by any measure, but this is one of many posts that delivers page visits daily, to my StrategyAudit site. Despite being almost 5 years old, this post continues to attract increasing attention, which leads to the opportunity to engage and generate business.

So, the answer to the question in the headline is ‘Yes’, with the caveat that, like almost everything n life,  you must be both good at it, and different to the crowd to get noticed.

Photo courtesy Thomas’s pics via Flikr

 

What ‘digital transformation’ is not!

What ‘digital transformation’ is not!

 

It happened again over the weekend.

I had a conversation with a bloke who runs a medium sized business, and is embarking on what he called a ‘digital transformation’.

In other words, he is paying someone to build a website.

Another example of someone who is probably about to be badly disappointed, and lighter in the pocket.

A website is not a digital transformation, it is a piece of marketing collateral, and like every other piece, needs to have met and passed a few basic tests:

What is its purpose?

Who is my customer?

How is it different to others in a similar space?

What problem does it solve?

How do you want visitors to feel?

What do you want those visitors to do next?

 

If that is not all obvious in the first glance, start again.

The greatest cost in building a website is not  the technology, that is now almost completely commoditised, it is in the generation of the content in response to the answering of these simple questions. Failure to deliver to a site visitor something of value to them that creates at least curiosity to  learn more from you, means they will leave, and probably never come back. While there is  no dollar value to that outcome you can easily count, it is in reality the greatest cost in not having a site that works for you: lost opportunity and revenue.