A marketers explanation of Net Present Value (NPV)

A marketers explanation of Net Present Value (NPV)

Feb 12, 2018 | Governance, Management

‘What the Hell is NPV?‘ the marketer cried

Accountants seem to love to baffle with jargon, but that is not, usually, what they set out to do.

Rather , they use terms as a shorthand to describe what to them makes absolute sense, but to the rest of us, mere marketing mortals, seems like gobbledygook.

One of the ones that commonly causes headaches is ‘Net Present Value’  or NPV.

Guaranteed to put most marketers to sleep.

However, you should not sleep, way better to understand the idea in simple  terms so you have an understanding of the conversation, and can contribute in a meaningful way.

NPV  is simply one of the common methods of calculating the relative value of a number of investment choices. It recognises that money you have today is worth more than money you may have tomorrow because it can be invested,   used now, while the ‘future money’ is subject to inflation and risk.

Often the term ‘time value of money’ will be used.

It is one of a suite of calculations that can be used when sorting out which projects to pursue from a range of possibilities. It provides an objective measure that enables you to make better choices, that management challenge in a world of subjectivity, conjecture and bullshit.

Marketers should understand the principal, if not necessarily the formula, which is readily available in just about every spreadsheet application since  Visicalc. Remember that? I do, it became a marketers best friend, years before excel emerged.

The formula is relatively simple, it just looks a bit complex.

The discount rate is the rate of inflation used, plus the amount you choose to add to allow for risk.

Most businesses use a consistent discount rate that reflects their return on investment hurdle rates. For example, if the current inflation rate is 1%, and the business requires an 8% ROI, the discount rate will be 9%

The great benefit of NPV to marketers is that it uses the cash flows derived from a proposal to sort out the priority, not just the quantum of the initial investment, so  it reflects the forecast cash success over time.

For example, you want to invest $3 million in gear to launch a new product, that is forecast to deliver a net profit of $1.3 million/year for 3 years, with a discount rate of 9%.

There are a number of sequential steps to take.

  • Calculate the present value of each years net profit by dividing the net profit by (1+discount rate). In year 1, that is 1,300,000/(1+.09) or 1,192,661. The ‘1’ in the formula being the current inflation rate
  • Repeat the exercise for each subsequent year, in year 2, it would be 1,192661/(1+.09) or 1,094,184.
  • In year 3 1094,184/(1+.09) 1,033,838
  • Add the present values calculated, 1,192,661 + 1,094,184 + 1,003,838 = 3,290,683 to give you the total forecast present value of your money in three years, then subtract the initial investment to give you the net present value of the investment.  $3290683 – 3,000,000 = $290,683.

The larger the positive number the better, a negative number would indicate that the project will drain cash from the business, a positive one adding cash.

To make the choice between investment options, repeat the exercise for  each, and pick the one with the highest positive value.

Clearly, the calculation is based on a series of assumptions and forecasts, so there is a lot of room for error, but when used in a consistent manner it is a good tool to assist making difficult choices, and offers the flexibility to do some informed scenario and ‘what if’ planning.

 

 

 

 

The easy way of course is just to go to excel, and look for NPV in the formulas tab, which will give you the numbers, but not the understanding of what they mean.

Photo Credit: Bentley Smith via Flikr

Three metrics by which to measure the value of marketing content.

Three metrics by which to measure the value of marketing content.

Feb 9, 2018 | Communication, Marketing

All marketing content I have ever seen is driven by one, or a combination of three things:

  • Vanity
  • They have something to sell
  • They have something to say.

There is always some overlap, but when you dig deeper, the motivation is always one of the three, and by a vast majority, one of the first two. To be clear, ‘Content’ is everything you post, from a thoughtful and original marketing blog post you wrote, to a research paper published elsewhere, to a cat photo.

However, the most successful content is when you have something to say, an idea you want to articulate and spread, a perspective that throws light on a question.

It becomes pretty easy with some level of objectivity, to put some numbers against these simple measures, even vary the sizes of the ‘bubbles’ to reflect the relative size visually.

When the purpose of a piece of content is to inform, educate, enlighten, and that purpose is met, financial outcomes may follow, but they should not be the objective, they are the outcome of great content.

What is your purpose for your content?

 

 

 

How does the Amazon innovation formula keep replicating?

How does the Amazon innovation formula keep replicating?

Feb 7, 2018 | Change, Governance, Innovation, Strategy

Amazon is an astonishing company for a whole lot of reasons, but there is one that is not front and centre in most conversations I have seen and in which I have been involved. This is the means by which Amazon just keeps on innovating, genuine, disruptive innovations, time after time, at astonishingly small intervals.

Note: This link is to an expanded version of this infographic from Visualcapitalist.com

 

Amazon must have the internal processes that enable it to punch out new businesses, and business models that way a factory stamping machine pumps out widgets.

The biggest impediment to efficiency on a widget machine is the changeover times between widget sizes and internal specifications.

Quick changeover is a hallmark capability sought by manufacturing companies employing Lean thinking, and is a challenging proposition, even in a small, tightly run factory. So how does Amazon achieve it at scale in businesses as complex as it routinely disrupts.

Amazon started by flogging books, or as CEO Jeff Bezos  (apparently) liked to say in the early days, ‘we do not sell books, we make books easy to buy’

The hallmark of a successful lean implementation in a factory is that there are processes that take a prospective order through the whole ‘sales funnel’ to production, delivery, and ongoing relationship building. Lean practitioners call it the ‘Value Stream,’ the set of activities required to deliver value to the customer. These are all done the same way, every time.

The paradox is that this process stability is the foundation of innovation, you need a stable base in order to trial ideas at speed, then scale the ones that work. This is an idea sometimes hard to communicate but as fundamental as it gets to successful innovation and continuous improvement.

Amazon appears to have achieved this at scale, in a service business, typically harder than a manufacturing business to get traction.

How?

Amazon is organised just like a whole collection of independent business units, all cross fertilising, and cross pollinating each other, using (I suspect) what Ray Dalio would term ‘Radical Transparency‘.

The secret seems twofold:

  • The internal technology that Amazon uses across all its activities, is modular and scaleable.  It is in effect the machine enabling the manufacturing of Amazon widgets. This enables new businesses to be added the way you would add another coloured widget to the sales inventory of a manufacturing business. I suspect the scalability will be the source of the next round of disruptions coming to the fast moving goods retailers.
  • Each part of the business multiplies the customer impact of the ones next door, a ‘flywheel’ effect. Digital technology enables the network or ‘Flywheel’ effect to build momentum. The more eyeballs you have on one side of the network equation, the greater the value to the other side. This effect builds scale very efficiently once you have reached a tipping point, reflecting Metcalf’s law which states that the value of a network increases with the number of nodes in the network.  Amazon has created their own version of Metcalfe’s law amongst their own offerings, one product or service leading to the one next door.

Bezos has achieved something that I think will be studied for decades, and it is clear he is not stopping any time soon. The only thing that appears likely to slow the momentum is regulatory intervention. Amazon has 44% of  on line retail sales in the US, 35% of global cloud services, a market growing at 40% a year,  where AWS is bigger than the next 5 biggest combined. The list goes on. The point is, Amazon is chewing up competition everywhere, yet pays very little tax, $1.4 billion since 2008, while Wal-Mart has paid $64 billion over the same period, so in effect, Wal-mart is subsidising its greatest threat to eat its lunch. Outcomes and numbers like that will have to prod regulators into some sort of action, before Amazon (and to be fair, Facebook and Google are very similar, even more dominating in their markets)  is in a position of power so dominant that regulators cannot stop them.

Amazon, a product of the 21st century is simply outrunning the capacity of the institutions and public mind set of the 20th century by reshaping our world around us, and with our consent by unthinking compliance. They are being joined in this exercise by Google, Facebook,  Alibaba Tencent, and a few other aspirants like Netfliks, to dominate the way we think, behave and work.

Header photo Jeff Bezos circa 1998

 

Update June 2018.

Amazon bought on line pharmacist ‘Pillpack’  last week for almost a billion dollars, saw its own share price jump double what they paid at the same time industry incumbents collectively lost 10% market valuation. Jeff Bezos has signalled his interest in pharmacy in various ways for years, so this should not come as a surprise, but it seems to have done so, as the threat of Amazon had clearly not been priced into the market valuations of the incumbents.

The Pharmacy guild in Australia, one of the most powerful lobby groups in the country, should be asking themselves if they are next for the chopper.

Update August 2022.Amazon last month paid $A5.6 billion for subscription health service One-Health, which gives them a network of doctors surgeries around the US. If ever there was a huge industry mired in its own importance, removed from the needs of those it is supposed to service, and ripe for disruption, it is the US health care industry. It will be a tough nut to crack, others have tried and failed, but Amazon has the street-cred to make it happen. The ‘flywheel’ at work again.

8 clichés every entrepreneur should consider

8 clichés every entrepreneur should consider

Feb 5, 2018 | Customers, Management, Small business

Clichés become clichés because they make sense, and are widely used, so they pass into the language. Unfortunately, common usage often makes them appear flippant, a throw-away line that means nothing.

That they take on that label does not make them any less valid, in fact, becoming a cliché is almost like getting an endorsement for wisdom.

Following are 8 that entrepreneurs embarking on an enterprise, whether it is the next Uber,  starting a cleaning business in your local area, taking on a franchise or a multi-level selling ‘opportunity’, that you should consider.

 

Cliché 1. Know where, and who, you are.

Irrespective of the starting point, starting a business is a journey. If you are going to start a business, recognise  that it will consume you if it is to be successful. It is not like being an employee, irrespective of results, at least for a while, you get paid to turn up.

Not so now.

Starting a business takes a heavy toll on not just your financial resources, but your resilience and personal relationships as well. Being prepared for the long hours, stress and uncertainty is a good start, you must know yourself well.

Cliché 2. Know where you want to go.

Many become tangled up in visions, missions, values, business purpose, their Why, and all the other ways that have become ‘popular’. All are valid, all have their place, but I ask my clients a simpler question; What does success look like? When you can answer that question, you have at least enough of an idea to start, but if the answer is purely financial, you need to do some more thinking.

Cliché 3. Have a plan.

There are lots of clichés about plans. Prominent amongst them are: ‘no plan ever survives first contact with the enemy‘, and  ‘failing to plan, is planning to fail‘ and both are right. Point is that unless you have a plan, you have no chance of understanding and managing your progress towards the goal, which tactics worked, and which ones did not. All crucial pieces of information. There are many planning models, each with their own emphasis, and I always recommend that you use several in the thinking part of the planning process as a way to ensure that things do not get missed.

Cliché 4. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

Planning is the easy part, the hard bit is to take action. Without action, nothing happens, nothing!

Taking the steps, getting outside your comfort zone is why you are going into business for yourself.  Curiosity, an idea, recognition of a need you can fill, a problem you can solve, all are great reasons to go into business. All it takes is the first step, and it is always the hardest.

To add another cliché to the list: ‘hope is not a strategy’

Cliché 5. To succeed, you must have something others want.

Success in business is dependent on being able to deliver superior value to customers, at a cost that delivers you a margin. If you cannot deliver value, almost always the solution to a problem, which can be anything from a more efficient power station, to a better tasting tub of yoghurt, to on time delivery, or something no-one else can do, at a price the customer is happy to pay, you will  not survive.

Tough but simple.

Cliché 6. People have to know you are there.

Even if you do have the next greatest thing, you cannot sell it without  others who may need or benefit from your gizmo knowing about it. Marketing is essential. The process of gaining understanding how you will deliver value to whom, while making a profit on the way is make or break for every business, particularly a new one as generally you cannot afford to make mistakes. Selling skills are as important. Not only do you need to sell to your potential customers, but to the banks, your suppliers, and often even your partner. If you cannot sell, and do not want to learn how, do not go into business for yourself.

Cliché 7. Watch the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves.

There are two aspects to this cliché. Cash is the lifeblood of every business, and you need to watch your cash the way a mother bear looks after her litter.

The first is to do a regular, I strongly recommend weekly, cash flow forecast. Make it a part of the way things are done in your business. At first it may seem strange, but it pays off, as you will always know your cash position, which will be a huge stress reliever. As a side benefit, trading while insolvent is illegal, and the simplest measure of solvency is can you pay your bills as they fall due.

The second is the behaviours you are setting out to build. Results come from the way things are done, as well as ensuring the right things are done, and if you want your staff to be as frugal with your money as you are, you have to  build, that behaviour deliberately. A weekly cash flow forecast with the appropriate level of staff engagement and contribution is a very good way to start.

Cliché 8. Work on your business, not just in it.

The ability to see your business as others  see it, customers, potential customers, and competitors, is essential to success. To have that external perspective, you must be able to extricate yourself from the day to day pressures of getting stuff done. It leads on to what could have been an addition the list, ‘do what is important, but not necessarily urgent’. Knowing what is important to the long term health and prosperity of the business is more about how others see you than it is about responding to those unimportant but seemingly urgent  things that pop up every day.

So, remember, all that glitters is not gold, but good advice can be.

 

 

Your ‘enemy’ makes you stronger.

Your ‘enemy’ makes you stronger.

Feb 2, 2018 | Marketing, Strategy

Strategy is as much about what you will not do as it is about what you will do, perhaps even more so, as it forces difficult choices.

Equally, the old marketing buzz-word ‘positioning’ which was defined in my university days 45 years ago as ‘how your customers see you’ benefits hugely from the addition of a clear statement of what you are not, what you will  not do, and even calling out the ‘enemy’.

When you define who is your enemy, those who feel the same way as you will find it very hard to do anything but support you, it rallies support to your cause.

This means that you can never create a product for everyone, the more defined you are the better, as you will then have more potential for rallying groups of those who are against what it is you are against.

Where would Mohamed Ali be without Joe Frazier?

Where would Apple be without Microsoft?

Would Neil Armstrong have taken a moon walk in 1969 without the Russians?

Mr. Churchill would have remained a backbencher without Herr  Hitler

Would Coles and Woolworths be the most successful FMCG retailers (as measured by domestic market share) in the world without each other?

In the back streets of Ashfield in Sydney there are two small grocery stores, almost opposite each other, fighting to the death for the last 20 years, and in the process keeping Woolies and Coles at bay, at least in the very local area they service.

Respect your enemy, and learn from them, they make you stronger.

Photo credit MrT HK via Flikr