Disruptive view of the future

Gary Hamel is one of the leading management thinkers around. Every time he speaks, he is worth listening to, and whilst you may not always agree,  there is always depth to his views.

In this post he proposes that management as we know it will be destroyed by three forces of the 21st century . To quote,  “Over the coming decades, these forces will mostly destroy management as we know it”

The forces he refers to are the rapid changes in the competitive environment that just keep accelerating, the development of web based collaboration tools, and the impact of the generation just growing up to whom the net is just there, a thing that is not even considered, to repeat his metaphor, it is as transparent as water is to a fish.

As one who talks about this stuff continually, I wish I could articulate is as simply, and clearly as he does.

 

Future Leadership skill requirement

The old axiom that there are two certainties in life, death and taxes, has been expanded by a third certainty: change.

Should this third certainty have an impact on the nature of leadership in the future?

My view, Absolutely!.

In uncertain environments, a core skill has to be the management of ambiguity, and so it is reasonable to expect leaders of the future to be good at receiving, processing and articulating inconclusive, ambiguous, and often contradictory information, in a way that offers a sense of certainty and security to those being led.

Collaboration and Autonomy

Is there a paradox here, or are collaboration and autonomy complementary?

On one hand we are seeking to encourage collaboration to engage everyone and maximise chances of optimum thinking to occur, whilst usually discounting the potential for “groupthink”. On the other hand we see the value of the autonomy of the individual as a means to provide the intrinsic motivation for them to do their best, to stretch themselves.

It seems to me after 30 years of being engaged, and observing this paradox at first hand that there are a couple of perspectives:

# If you can navigate the short term tensions and difficulties to build successful collaboration, it becomes a long term strength, and despite the ever present short term tensions, if they are managed as debates, no matter how heated, that are based on facts rather than emotion, you can achieve both collaboration and personal autonomy.

# People in an industry develop a way of conceptualising the industry and their place in it, both as an individual and as a collaborative group. The key to growth is being able to redefine the prevailing view, and successfully chase success in the evolving industry.

In the week after  Steve Jobs’ death, with all the eulogies being written, the central core of his success was just such an ability to redefine an industry and successfully lead the changes. On the other hand, the once great Kodak invented digital photography, and did not see the value given their view of the photographic industry, Nokia the runaway mobile phone leader 10 years ago is now struggling for relevance, and it took a radical forced restructure of the “big Three” in Detroit before they recognised that their view of the auto industry was not consistent with the desires of their customers.  

Kodak, Nokia, and the Detroit three all lacked a leader capable of redefining the industry view held by their businesses, and paid the price for that failure.

 

What is, what it should be

Creating a sense of commitment to an outcome is the job of anyone who seeks to lead.

Perhaps the most powerful way of achieving this is to build an understanding in an audience of what the current looks like, and articulating the shape of the future.

This should be far more than a presenter just asking themselves rhetorical questions,  done well it creates a rhythm to a presentation, that can be compelling.

Probably the most compelling example, certainly the best known is Dr Kings speech in 1963, most immediately recognise the power of that articulation, relating to the couple of minutes at the end where he articulated his dream, having spent the first 12 minutes or so of the 16 minute speech laying out the present.   This speech was so compelling it assembled the momentum for enormous change in the social fabric of the western world, consider what could be done in youir organisation with the use of that simple technique.

Trick is to ensure you live the dream, or it is just words.

Almost gone

The news  that Fosters will be sold to SA Miller Brewing represents almost the last Australian food and beverage business with a global brand has now disappeared. I say almost, as I can think of no other, but  some may argue that a few sales in Fiji or NZ constitutes global. To my mind, it does not rate.

Why is it that we seem to be unable to build and sustain food businesses from this country?.

Australia is now a net importer of packaged food, according to the AFGC 2010 report, and yet we are an abundant producer, particularly of broadacre commodities, grain and meat. Most people when told we are a net importer go into a state of disbelief, and yet the march of imported food, and the decline of Australia’s manufacturing base has been happening slowly over a long period.

It’s pretty easy to blame the evolution of globalisation of supply chains, the domination of Woolworths and Coles, regulation  imposing costs overseas competitors do not have, the geographic spread and relatively sparse population denying the economies of scale, but the reality is that it is a management failure. The failure is shared by boards and shareholders who have tolerated a complacent management, discouraged long term strategy in the chase for short term returns, and simply disengaged with the basic drivers of competitiveness over a long period.

 The only hope left is that a few SME’s will emerge from the heavily culled pack that remains, but it seems to me that they have missed the boat, and the barriers that the businesses that existed 30 years ago, and should have breasted, are now simply too high for the small guys to tackle without the scale and capital resources necessary.  Our one hope is that there is a processing breakthrough, technologies  like the CSIRO High Pressure Processing technology offer some hope, but they are unlikely to be the savior by themselves.

Almost gone, down to the last gasp, what on earth will we do then? Or don’t we care?

 

 

The most valuable question

Complexity is strangling us, paralysis by analysis has become pretty widespread, and the paradox is that we are all trying to do more with less.

In that context, creating an environment where everyone can contribute to the maximum of their capability seems like a pretty good idea.

To achieve that level of engagement irrespective of the size and complexity of an organisation, all it takes is one simple question”

“What do you think?”

The catch is that the hard part starts after the question, when the cultural environment needs to have evolved sufficiently to encourage people to tell it as they really see it, and then feel they have the power and authority to implement.