Politicians God Complex and the carbon tax.

We all understand the “God Complex” the situation where someone proclaims their universal truth about a complex problem. My solution is the right one, no argument!.

Problem is that complex problems are really, well,  complex, hard to understand, and there is rarely a single right answer, and even rarer that an individual stumbles across the solution first time, without trying many potential solutions and partial solutions, revising the bits that worked, dismissing those bits that proved to be useless. Sound familiar, its trial and error, continuous improvement, or to the Lean adherents amongst us, PDCA, or the scientific method, perhaps AAR, all variations to a theme about which I have written a bit.

In the case of the carbon tax in Australia, it may be a contributor to a solution to global warming, it may make enough difference to worth the pain, it may not, problem is we will not know until after the data is in, but by then the dice will be rolled, and we cannot unroll it.

Currently we have two political leaders proclaiming the rightness of their solution to a hugely complex problem. Neither knows the answer, that will be the outcome of a hugely complex set of assumptions and outcomes containing multiples of permutations of what may happen depending on decisions and actions over which neither pollie has any control at all.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have both of these silly wallies admit they do not know the right answer, that there certainly is not one “right” answer, but agree that the problem is real, as they have done in a tacit way by each “committing” to the 5% reduction. In a bi partisan manner, map out a program of experimental measures across a range of activities, with a view to refining over time the range of measures to be put in place to reduce our emissions, and encourage the “clean” economy through technology and changed practices. This stuff is important enough to our collective future that it requires genuine wide ranging collaboration to come up with an evolutionary and decade straddling program for there to be any hope of success.  

Somebody, please tell me I’m dreamin’.

 

Explicit and tacit knowledge in the national accounts

I was struck last month by the blizzard of numbers and alternative views presented as a part of the release of the national accounts.

The economy was down, but the floods in QLD and Vic had largely caused the problem and was it short term only, consumer spending was up, but we are saving more than ever, and so on, and on, and on. However,  the overall picture is so rosy that the Reserve Bank appeared likely to put up interest rates again pretty soon.

Little of it struck true at a “gut” level, a two speed economy is probably more like a 6 speed economy, with a couple of gears going backwards, and the picture if you take away mining, just a horrible mess of varying degrees.

Thank heavens over the last fortnight the Westpac chief economist has come out and said that interest rates were in fact too high, and all but the mining industry was struggling. On Monday the Reserve Bank minutes released indicated they were taking note of the problems, and rates were likely to be steady for a while. 

In my patch, in and around the food industry, one of the largest drivers in the economy, the landscape is littered with landmines. It has not been worse in my 35 years of engagement. No numbers here, just tacit knowledge based on observation, discussion, and experience, all of which run counter to the heroic stuff mouthed explicitly by the treasurer, most economists, and the shiny pants set in Canberra who just rely on the macro numbers.

The team Vs the individual

A great team is better than a team of greats, an oft quoted maxim, I suspect coming originally from Vince Lombardi, the legendary Green Bay packers coach and cliché source. We pretty much accept this, but what happens when there is an exceptional person, is his performance enhanced by putting him/her in a team with mediocre but competent people? Is the team performance enhanced, or is it averaged out?

I can see Gary Kasparov alone beating a team of pretty good chess players easily,  and putting Kasparov into a team of chess players, subjecting his brilliance to the consensus processes of a team being terminal to him making a brilliant contribution, averaging performance.  By contrast, Benji Marshall makes the Wests team, without him, they are pretty average.

I think it just comes down to the activity, some things are best done by an individual, and only an individual can be brilliant, I don’t recall Hemmingway collaborating on any of his books.

So next time you are putting a team together to tackle a complex task, ask yourself if it would be better to assign a gifted individual, rather than a team, and if there is to be a team, ensure the roles are very clear to avoid the brilliant  individual having his contribution averaged. 

 

Presenter or Mentor

Presentations happen all the time, most are boring, usually because the presenter is talking about his favorite subject, “me, me, me” when the reality should be all about the audience, weather that be one person, or a thousand.

Successful presentations create in the audience a feeling of commitment and motivation, a recognition of shared vision, values, and purpose.

It follows that when a presenter comes across as a mentor, the impact will be greater.

 

The character of a leader

I listened to the Rugby  League game yesterday between the Broncos and the Raiders, an extraordinary game that the Broncos had won, almost lost, then won in a golden point  “coin toss”

For no particular reason, the term “character” came to mind while listening. It is an overused term in Rugby league, every player doing something a bit good is suddenly a “hero” who showed “extraordinary character”, according to pundits, but this is not what post is about.

This is about the character of leadership, the person who can imbue an organisation with a set of behavioral  norms that have a lasting and wide impact.

Wayne Bennett must be such a leader.  I have never met the man, no longer follow League with any passion, but Bennett’s leadership record from the Canberra Raiders in their formative years, to the Broncos, and now St George  is unmatched. Few would bet against him in his next iteration at Newcastle.

So, what is the character of a leader like Bennett?

Surely it is someone who can overcome the challenges presented by the complicated and multifarious environment we all live in, by developing and articulating a sense of inner moral certainty that impacts those being led. They seem to be able to make the leap necessary to subjugate their own needs and ego to those they are leading, effectively to be their  leader by being their servant, getting their kicks from those being led, rather than from observers.

In this context it is about giving a bunch of very aggressive young athletes in a brutal contact sport who largely lack formal education, their own moral compass that makes them better players with reserves of determination and commitment they probably do not even recognise, but more importantly, makes them better people in a lasting way.  

In other contexts, the impact of character is the same, it is just the names that change. Perhaps this is why we are so cynical about our political and institutional leadership, every time we wake up there is another example of someone in a leadership position demonstrating the lack of moral and philosophical depth by being “pragmatic”.

Hire for attitude, then educate

How do you find the right people to contribute to the growth and prosperity of an organisation? This task is generally recognised as a core management function, but so often a new hire makes little real difference beyond delivering more of the same, if you are lucky.

How come it is so hard??

My view, it is usually easier to find someone with seemingly relevant experience along with the right set of qualifications and contacts than it is to find someone with the right attitude, someone who does not need to unlearn lessons learnt in a similar environment, someone with a contrarian view, who will fit into and contribute to a differentiated culture.

If you want more of the same, then continue as before, but if you want to create excitement, break the mould, change stuff, you need someone with the right attitude, skills can be learned.