What’s coming for 2012?

Jan 2, 2012 | Leadership, Personal Rant, Small business, Social Media

It is the time of year for predictions and reviews, so here is my shot. Three general predictions, and one very specific one, followed by a review of my predictions of this time last year.

    1. The barriers to communication are falling so quickly, that a raft of tools are emerging that will change the way we consume. Collaborative Consumption is emerging as an economic driver that  will change the mechanics of many industries, and create new ones. Companies like Zipcar remove the need to own a car, particularly useful for inner city residents, Swaptree replaces the sale of Ebay with a swap, something you have but no longer need being swapped with someone with the opposite.
    2. Small is good!. Starting a new business has never been easier, and they are popping up all over the place, replacing and renewing all sorts of services. All that gets in the way of all this new activity is the institutional barriers in place from last century. If you need a bit of money to fund a good idea, and the family and friends, the traditional source, are wary, try Kickstarter.com, where money is pledged to good ideas.
    3. The wisdom of the crowd is slowly being recognised, but the pace is accelerating rapidly. This idea, first comprehensively articulated by James Suroweicki, the New Yorker columnist some years ago is gaining amazing traction in management practice as its self evident truths are incorporated into activity. The next step is to assemble this wisdom from the electronic fingerprints we all leave across the net. Scary to some from a privacy perspective, enormously productive from the factory floor to the boardroom and political forums.
    4. The Mad Monk , Opposition leader Tony Abbott will not make it to the end of 2012, but will be replaced by Malcolm Turnbull, who appears to be on of the few in the Parliament who actually listens to the facts, and acknowledges that ideological solutions to the complex problems we face are just too simplistic to work, but that we need a consistent philosophical foundation to the decisions that are made, rather than a response to a focus group. 

 

 

At the end of 2010 I made some observations and predictions, so how did I go? Generally, the trends identified here I believe will continue,  with the exception of the first one, which is now appears likely to be very wide of the mark.

    1. We may regret the increase in “touch” devices as we use them to replace human contact. Jury is still out, the growth of touch devices has been amazing during the year, and shows no sign of lessening,  but there is little evidence that my concern about the humanity in relationships being eroded is valid. Score 2/10.
    2. Global retailing takes over. It seems the e-tailing revolution is really here, now you can find and buy just about everything on the net,  from books and electronics to whitegoods, cars, and even love.  Score 7/10. marked myself down a bit because it was so obvious.
    3. Net advertising will overtake traditional advertising. I  have seen conflicting numbers, so who really knows, but I suspect it has happened, and when you add in the growth of “content” posted on sites like u-tube, that are not paid advertising, but have a marketing objective, there is no doubt paid advertising in “traditional” media is now behind advertising/advertorials on the net . Score 7/10.
    4. Social media comes of age. Got that right, the quickest growing demographic on social media is 50 plus, often connecting with scattered grandchildren, then discovering  SM is a great tool for all sorts of other things. Score 9/10.
    5. The cloud rolled in. Again, got it right, the hype around the cloud appears to be turning into investment, not just so institutions can reduce their costs, but because change is so rapid, it is now easier to keep up on the cloud. Most are finding it is not cheaper, the money just moves from the balance sheet to the P&L, but far more flexible, and responsive to change. Score 9/10
    6. Data mining will gain momentum. This happened, and is still happening, but slower than I thought it would. I suspect the growth in the cloud, (5) and crowdsourcing  (7) will provide significant momentum. Score 6/10
    7. Crowdsourcing will emerge from the shadows. This is certainly a trend that accelerated through the year, and is still gaining momentum. Everything from NPD, to project management, graphic art, sales lead identification, and customer service delivery. Score 7/10, just because it it taking a bit longer than I expected.
    8. Two speed Australia became accepted, even if two speed now appears to be a much more complicated mix than just 2 speeds. The  added complication is the financial crisis in the Eurozone, and the knock-on impacts that could have on Australia’s economy as exports from to Europe and the US from China slow. This is a truly scary scenario. Score 7/10.
    9. Climate change and the political response. With the exception of Australia, with Bob Brown calling the shots in Canberra, climate change fell down the agenda in developed countries in the face of financial woes. Companies may be working slowly to adjust their  activity mix, but politicians are more concerned with re-election, and are taking populist positions rather than taking the really hard decisions that will alienate large parts of electorates. Score 6/10
    10. The push for regulation. Got that right, often by stealth, regulation is coming back as a strategy option for governments everywhere. In Australia the most obvious is our workplace legislation. Got that right, 9/10. In December, 2011 it was announced that “Fair Work Australia” would undergo the promised review of its effectiveness, chaired by the new minister Bill Shorten, who has already announced his view that we are leading the world in workplace regulation. My bullshit meter hit overdrive when I saw the press release, as it is clear that the regulations are stifling innovation, risk taking and productivity, and are simply an acknowledgement to the “left” whichever party they belong to . There are several others, like the so called “Road safety Remuneration Bill” which is really just a government sponsored grab for power by the TWU, and promises to cost the community heaps, and put even more small transport operators out of business, but are travelling under the radar.

Overall, I give myself a pretty good pass mark.

 

Hope 2012 is a good one for you.

Allen

 

Why not Organic?

Dec 23, 2011 | Personal Rant, Uncategorized

An obtuse end of year thought, considering the problems the Government is having with its Green partner in policy. 

A convergence of trends, organic, free range, sustainable, all the other adjectives, food is all the rage, why not re-brand those horrid, smelly, carbon producing fossil fuels as organic? 

Well, they are aren’t they, formed from trees, nice and green, nurtured by the earth for millennia, how could the good Senator Brown possibly disagree?

The carbon tax, could be renamed a “green tax”, recognising the origins of fossil fuels, only reasonable I think, in fact, it should be a central plank of the new party platform. Hats and whistles please.

Give Julia something to think about over the break, apart from gay marriage and how to deliver the budgie a wedgie for Christmas.

See you next year.

Too busy!!

Dec 14, 2011 | Management, Personal Rant

Busy, busy, busy, everyone is too busy to do anything important.

We have had a reshuffle of the federal cabinet, busy people, dedicating limited  time to gay marriage and other such important matters, a client of mine is so busy some the basic management stuff simply does not get done, and most large organisations I see are so busy reviewing and planning that there is little time left for doing.

Three simple rules to get more done:

    1. Keep it simple
    2. Be prepared to fail sometimes
    3. Have a go.

In a lovely juxtaposition last night, there was a rerun on one of the digital channels of the “Yes Minister” episode  dealing with a rumoured reshuffle, and Minister Hacker reviewing his options. Very close to the current bone.

Stop being busy, and to borrow the phrase, “just do it”

 

Volume is not the measure of value.

Nov 27, 2011 | Communication, Leadership, Personal Rant, Social Media

The digital world has taken over, but the emergence of social media tools that host a lot of pretty low grade stuff  sometimes overshadows the huge impact the tools of the web can have, sometimes life-changing and even saving,  impacts.  Just look at the role played by social media during the floods in QLD, the disaster in Christchurch, and the changes happening in the Middle East.

Consider the site Ushahidi for instance,  born in crisis, and evolving in a manner that has, and will continue to make a huge difference to many peoples lives in times of crisis. Such a tool would have been impossible without  Tim Berners-Lee, his colleagues and subsequent innovators.  

The value of just one site like Ushahidi, and the useful utility of social tools makes up for all the junk that appears to be the other side of the coin, making up the volume.

SME’s and Quantitative easing.

Oct 24, 2011 | Management, Personal Rant, Small business

It seems to me that the geniuses making economy wide financial decisions around the world, but particularly in the US and Europe are making the same mistake many of my SME clients make. They are failing to distinguish between the short term, tactical decision making that can reshape a P&L in any given month, whilst ignoring the long term strategic decisions that shape the balance sheet. 

What is the difference between giving Woolworths a big discount to enable a deep price cut on your product, then promptly turning around and borrowing to produce more, and the so called “Quantitative Easing”  being practiced by the EU & US?  Giving Woolies the discount may make the P&L look better for the month, but when the discount is borrowed, all you are doing is loading the balance sheet up with more debt that needs to be repaid at some point, or you go bankrupt.  

You do not have to be a brain surgeon to understand that when the credit card is full, and the debt is bigger than the income, some radical spending surgery is required, partnered with an increase in the value extracted from every dollar that is still spent. Most  consumers understand this, and manage it, those who do not, have their credit card taken away.

Why is it so hard?

FMCG duopoly under pressure?

Oct 14, 2011 | Customers, Management, Personal Rant, Small business

It seems that new ACCC chief Rod Sims is getting serious about the reality of the power of the two major supermarket retailers.

At the same time, Andrew Reitzer  MD of Metcash is giving the ACCC a headache over his presumptive execution of the purchase of Franklins from Pick n’ Pay before the Federal court had ruled, simply on the basis that the business was bleeding cash, and the transaction had to be done, even at the risk of the consequences of  an adverse finding.

An interview by Alan Kohler of  Reitzer and the accompanying commentary give a great insight into the thinking behind the only real alternative to the power of Coles and Woolworths.

The overwhelming power of Coles and Woolworths has nevertheless not stopped the evolution of niche retailers like Harris Farm, competitive regional supermarkets like Drakes and Ritchies, and market entry of Aldi and Costco. The downward pressure on purchase price has however wrecked havoc on the Australian food manufacturing  sector, with very few left, and those that are in pretty shallow water, with the only really large domestically owned manufacturer left, Goodman Fielder performing poorly. 

I can only hope that in the new environment of more aggressive review of the retailers, that the plight of the domestic manufacturing sector  is adequately considered.