Apr 9, 2026 | Management, Small business
The Reserve Bank hands down its next rates decision on 5 May.
The cash rate already sits at 4.10%. Markets and many commentators still expect at least one further rise on May 5, probably followed by at least one more. Against this backdrop, there is a federal budget trying to deliver on the social undertakings made to the electorate, while dealing with a structural deficit, soft consumer confidence, and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly as it relates to energy.
This is a toxic mix for SME’s, which despite being largely ignored by governments, are still the backbone of the economy.
That mix should sound familiar to anyone old enough to remember the 1970s. Growth stops, costs increase, consumers keep their hands in their pockets, and the cycle repeats.
That is when small businesses fail.
Whether the Reserve Bank raises again or pauses, the core message for SMEs stays the same.
Do not wait for certainty: Prepare now.
Tough times do not usually kill a business in one dramatic moment. They kill it by progressively tightening a dozen small screws at the same time. Debtors pay later. Stock turns slower. Quotes sit longer. Margins erode one discount at a time.
The businesses that come through rough periods usually do a few simple things early and do them hard.
They preserve cash.
They accelerate every cycle time in the business.
They protect gross margin like it is oxygen.
They stay close to good customers.
They cut vanity spending and keep useful spending.
And they remember an old truth Warren Buffett expressed well: when times get tough, cash gives you options. Opportunity often knocks when nobody feels like opening the door.
The following specific advice has been heard many times, but once more will not hurt.
Know your cash position.
Know your true cash position every week, not intermittently once a month, every week, or better still, every day. Chase debtors hard, but with wit and humanity, as they are probably also suffering as you are.
Run a 13-week rolling cash flow forecast. Update it every week. Assume at least some customers will pay later than promised because they will.
Accelerate cycle times.
Every process has an established cycle time that ‘settles’ into a comfortable rhythm when times are OK. When times get tougher, those that can accelerate their cycle times will win.
This is particularly the case with your cash conversion time. To speed that up, quote faster, invoice the same day, chase deposits sooner, work operational assets harder, and reduce if not eliminate rework. Get jobs finished, signed off, and billed without dead time between steps.
The lessons of John Boyd and his OODA Loop are never so relevant as in a crisis.
Protect gross margin.
Tough markets tempt owners to discount just to close the sale. That usually backfires. The better tactic is to sell on value, drop unprofitable work and reprice where you can.
Complexity creates transaction costs, which are always hard to see. Removing complexity frees up cash to be used productively.
Keep your best customers close.
Your existing customers are cheaper to retain and increase your share of their ‘wallet’ than new ones are to win.
Call them, collaborate to solve their problems, check in before they complain, and ask for referrals and testimonials.
Cut costs carefully.
Across the board cost cutting is a desperate mistake. Do not slash the parts of the business that help you sell, collect cash, or keep customers.
Cut the ‘vanity’ and nice to have costs aggressively, not the activities that generate revenue, margin, and cash.
Tighten inventory management
Stock that does not move is just dead cash.
Reduce slow-moving lines, buy smarter, Increase visibility on lead times and reorder points. Stop over-ordering to ensure ‘safety stock’. Aggressive management of cycle times in your inventory can have a dramatic impact on working capital requirements.
Pareto the pareto
Not all customers, and products deserve to survive. The Pareto rule always applies, not always as 80:20, but it is there.
Identify the customers, products and jobs that produce real margin and reliable cash. Defend those first. and progressively eliminate those that do not contribute. When you have done the first round, do it again, you will always find more that can be productively removed. You are in effect, stress testing the revenue and cost generation base of the business.
This exercise intimidates many SME’s, who tend to form emotional ties to products, customers, and distribution channels. In tough times, emotion must be set aside.
Renegotiate early.
Banks, landlords and suppliers all hate surprises. They will listen more carefully and be more accommodating when they are a part of the process of ensuring bills will be paid, even if a bit late.
Secure facilities early. Reset terms where needed. Ask for flexibility while you still look like a good risk.
Keep hustling for sales
A weak market is not a good excuse for sloppy selling.
Tighten follow-up. Improve conversion rates. Shorten the path from enquiry to proposal to close. Make it painfully easy for the right customer to buy.
Stay visible
Marketing investments are often the first savings made in any downturn. Resist the temptation, as history clearly demonstrates that those that keep investing during the tough times come out way stronger when the worm turns. Besides, when others pull their marketing, you become more visible for no extra cost.
Be aware of bargains.
Downturns create bargains. Competitors stumble. Good staff become available. Assets get cheaper. Market share can move. Cash lets you act while others freeze.
Lift your prices.
This is sure to give some the ‘wobbles’ and is always difficult, but if you have done all the above, you will be delivering real value to customers. An extra dollar added to the revenue line drops straight through the P&L onto the profit line. There is no quicker way to increase financial resilience than to lift prices while holding volume. Even if you drop a bit of volume, do the maths, and 9 times in 10 you will be better off after the price rise.
Header credit: Scott Adams and Dilbert
Mar 7, 2025 | Customers, Innovation, Marketing, Small business
I have started seven businesses, so I have some entrepreneurial form.
One I sold, one delivered profits over a 5-year period, but circumstances led to its closure, several did the dead cat bounce, and a few more struggled a bit before common sense cut in, and one, StrategyAudit has been going for 30 years. On top of my own gigs, I have been involved, engaged, and accountable for many, many more as a consultant, interim manager, and contractor.
After all that effort, sweat, broken dreams, conflict, disillusionment, and frustration, mixed in with some ‘I told you so’s’ what have I learnt?
Timing is crucial. Two of my dead cats were just timing: I was too early, and others since have done similar stuff and made a killing, proving that a good idea is rarely yours alone. Connected to this, but not in a causal way, is that it always takes longer than you think. Take your worst case time-frame, the one that cannot happen, then double it. If successful, that impossibly long time frame might be close. We never hear of this from the start-up porn inhabiting the web.
You are never too old. Ray Kroc was a 52 year old appliance salesman when he had the brainwave that led to McDonalds. In Australia, the age group most likely to start a business is 35-39 years old, comprising 19% of start-ups. The likelihood of extreme success keeps rising until the mid to late 50’s, so Ray Kroc is not an outlier. This is contrary to the common perception of the hoodie wearing entrepreneur who only needs to shave once a week. In my case, all my efforts except StrategyAudit were born before I was 40, the earliest, not counting my efforts to make a bob while still at school and University, was when I was 22. StrategyAudit was born from necessity when I was 44.
Focus and commitment are mandatory. Entrepreneurs by their nature are curious, perceptive, and usually see things from an uncommon perspective. As a result, they are easily distracted by the new shiny thing, or great idea to bolt onto their baby. Sometimes these great bolt-on ideas come from early users, whose opinions carry considerable weight because they are so important to you. The internal struggle with this fragmented attention and less than absolute commitment is often a real problem. In my case, it probably cost me at least two potentially extremely successful businesses. I have often wondered at the role of ‘necessity’ in the game of unicorn chasing.
Boot-strap or take equity partners. Every start-up is short of two things: cash and capability. It is enormously tempting to address one of both or these by taking in partners by one of the many avenues open. Often this is the right thing to do, it usually makes scaling quicker and easier. The downside is the loss of control. Most entrepreneurs have some level of ‘control-freak’ in their DNA, and struggle when they go from having the final word, and having to take on board the views of others.
Capability shortfall. No entrepreneur can cover all the capability bases required for a successful business. That leave the choice of how, when, and sometimes if, you fill the gaps. Getting this wrong causes all sorts of terminal events. Often these are around cash flow shortages, particularly when the enterprise appears to be rapidly gaining ground and being successful. However, all the other functions that must be executed by a growing business are equally vulnerable. These days it is sometimes little more than finding and keeping the right people who operate at whatever ‘coalface’ you service.
Solve a problem felt by others. Solving a problem only you have will not lead to a business unless others have the same one. Equally solving a problem you think others have, when they do not feel the impact of it, or your solution costs more than the problem costs them, is not useful.
Round pegs and square holes. In most SMEs seeking to scale, or even just survive, the choice of personnel, and the jobs they do is critical. Make a mistake and it can be terminal, as SME’s do not have the cushion of scale to absorb those mistakes. The adage of ‘hire slowly, fire fast’ is especially important for SME’s.
Too little marketing. Marketing is an investment in future cash flow. Often this is really, really hard when current cash flow is in the toilet. It is profoundly different to the conversion to a transaction, usually called sales, which is just the end point of the process. When you just have the end point, with too little or misdirected effort at the wider functions of ‘marketing’ in the revenue generation process, you will have a mix of productivity suck-holes and opportunity costs that will not show up in any standard set of accounts.
Too little attention to the numbers. The ‘numbers’ critically include the financial numbers, but they are not the only ones that should be monitored, managed, and leveraged. While I obsess about cash with those I work with, cash in the bank is an outcome of a wide range of other things that have gone as anticipated, or if the bank is empty, not as expected. The most critical ones fall into two categories:
- Internal numbers. These are the numbers over which you have direct management control. They range from the costs of manufacturing and service input, to the overheads resulting from the costs associated with keeping the doors open every day. Inventories, cash conversion cycle time, capex and the timing and quantum of expected returns, personnel productivity, and many more consume cash and importantly for an SME, time.
- External numbers. Critically, these are the numbers around the behaviour of customers. They will vary depending on the product you are selling, but customer acquisition costs, referral rates, lifetime value, and repeat purchase rates will all directly impact on the cash in your bank account. They also should include some consideration of the market context, trends, competitor assessments, and regulatory considerations.
Importantly, and often overlooked until too late is the most fundamental number of all: Sales revenue. None of the above is the slightest bit relevant un the absence of revenue. Go after it early and hard!!
There you go, 50 years of hard-won wisdom in a 5 minute read. Call me when you need more.
Feb 3, 2025 | AI, OE, Small business
Sledgehammers in skilled hands can be both a significant tool of productivity, and a destructive force.
AI is the newest sledgehammer on the commercial and personal block.
It gives everyone the opportunity to write a blog, book, opera, make a movie, paint a landscape or portrait, or post an outrageous opinion. It is the most democratising technology ever invented.
What AI does not do, and will never do, is replace the quality of thought and creativity that humans are able to bring to a problem, situation, or creative exercise. However, AI can amplify human ingenuity by offering the opportunity to greatly increase the quality, efficiency, and breadth of thought an individual can bring to a situation.
For small manufacturing businesses and their supply chains, AI is typically seen as a productivity tool. Indeed, it excels at optimising operations, streamlining workflows, and enhancing quality control. More importantly for the future however, it is a tool that expands capabilities, enabling businesses to innovate faster, respond dynamically to market demands, and identify new opportunities before competitors do.
Imagine brainstorming sessions supercharged by AI, where potential solutions are generated, refined, and paired with actionable deployment plans in real-time. This can give small manufacturers a significant edge, allowing them to pivot swiftly in response to challenges and lead their industry through innovation rather than follow.
This has profound implications for talent acquisition and retention.
Rather than just focusing on traditional technical expertise, increasingly available via AI, businesses should prioritise those with ‘flexible minds.’ These individuals may not always be top-tier engineers in terms of mathematical skills, extremely creative marketers, or inquisitive operations managers, but they excel at envisioning multiple outcomes and solving complex problems creatively and rapidly. They can visualise scenarios, identify risks, and devise solutions backwards and forwards, often outperforming those who think only sequentially.
This ability will equip employees for the increasingly complex, variable, and competitive world of modern manufacturing. By leveraging AI to empower employees to perform tasks outside their established skill sets, small businesses can boost innovation, adaptability, and resilience. This not only enhances productivity but also builds a workplace culture that fosters satisfaction, motivation, and long-term growth.
In the past, I have advocated that the primary consideration in identifying productive employees, after being very clear about the required skills to do a job, is curiosity. The emergence of AI elevates curiosity almost to the level, and in some cases, above, the requirement for specific skills.
The risks of ignoring AI adoption are stark. Competitors who embrace AI will gain efficiencies, reduce costs, and innovate faster. Businesses that delay integrating AI will find themselves outperformed, struggling to keep up with quality expectations and delivery timelines.
The question small manufacturing businesses should ask themselves is: Are we willing to risk falling behind, or are we ready to lead the industry through smart, strategic AI adoption?
By increasing participation, independence, and the breadth of employee skills through AI integration, small businesses can secure their competitive advantage and thrive in an AI-driven world.
Jan 15, 2025 | Communication, Marketing, Small business, Strategy
A few days ago I turned 73. Well past any reasonable retirement age, but I cannot see myself as retired. While there is not the same pressure of past years, the thought of playing golf and going to lunch a lot does little for me.
In late November last year, WordPress cut off the basic numbers that had been supplied about readership of this blog. I could no longer see which posts had been opened, how many times, and the country and source of the opener. It had been a free part of the site for the whole 15 years of the blog, and I did look at it, and once a year, do a superficial analysis of it in a post, referring to the most popular posts, but that is all I did.
It was a curiosity for me to see which post performed best, but the numbers are tiny, ridiculous in any commercial context. However, I did nothing with that information.
In contrast to my advice to all my clients, I did not bother to look at the also free Google Analytics. I stopped that some time ago when I realised I was spending time looking, and doing nothing with the conclusions.
Equally, I have made no effort to ‘monetise’ the blog, rarely touting for business, no ads, no affiliate links, none of the obvious things I knew I could do to generate some cash.
When I started the objective was to use it as a lead engine for my one man strategy consulting business, but that did not last. Rapidly I realised it was way more personal, self-indulgent, even selfish than that. I did not really care who read it, although gratified to know a few did, The purpose had become to order my own thinking, be creative in the way I thought about things, and to sate my curiosity.
Back to the numbers. My initial annoyance with WordPress, dissolved, Who cares, I don’t. The metrics did not matter to me, beyond some level of vanity, as I did not use them. Their absence for the past 6 weeks has not altered my ‘scribbling habit’ at all, a habit that like any deeply held habit is very hard to break, and why bother, it adds value to my life, and if it adds value to anyone else, that is a bonus.
We live in a world of numbers.
If it cannot be counted, it does not matter sayeth the consultant, I have said it many times, while knowing the truth of Einsteins utterance that ‘Not everything that matters can be counted, while not everything that can be counted matters’.
Rarely do I see myself as a writer. Occasionally, when someone compliments me on post, I feel that maybe I am, but I see myself as a scribbler, one who feels compelled to write stuff down in order to make sense of it, to coalesce the conflicting information and emotion banging around in my brain. The act of writing is what is important, not what comes after. Therefore why should I be annoyed that WordPress has demanded I pay for some numbers that may appeal to vanity, but I do not use.
Stick your numbers up your arse WordPress. I will scribble on regardless, and reconsider GA.
Have a great 2025.
Sep 12, 2024 | Sales, Small business
Imagine the difference.
You go into a sales call and the first item on the agenda is the price. The potential buyer knows that the price stated is the price, without variation. The whole conversation therefore is about quality, delivery, and all the other things that make up value to the buyer. It may also save you time by quickly eliminating those for whom the price is beyond their budget or expectations.
On the other hand, when you go into a conversation with the other party believing that price is negotiable, the whole conversation then becomes about price, and not about all the other elements that create value for both parties.
What if we’re undercut by a competitor you cry?
Inevitably that will happen from time to time.
Get used to it.
Two strategic questions about price to ask yourself:
- Do I want this customer who is prepared to swap supplies for a few bob in the absence of the other services that we provide?
- Who is it that this competitive supplier is overcharging that we should be talking to?
Most sales conversations I have seen default to debates on price. This does no party any good, as price is only one element of value.
As Benjamin Franklin noted: The bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of low price is forgotten’.
Header cartoon credit: Tom Fishburne at Marketoonist.com. Thanks Tom!.
Aug 30, 2024 | Collaboration, Marketing, Small business, Strategy
Identifying, building, defending and leveraging competitive advantage has been, and will remain, the foundation of successful marketing.
It is also the essence of strategy: making choices with incomplete information that serve to shape the future to your benefit as it arrives.
The challenge is, the location of competitive advantage has moved, and many, if not most, have failed to pick the move.
Think about it.
Until the early 2020’s, competitive advantage was still all about brand, scale, control of supply chains, access to capital, and the ‘old boys network’. To use Charlie Mungers description, they constituted the ‘Moats’ around successful businesses. Kodak, Xerox, GE, GM, Exxon, IBM, Wal-Mart, P&G, and the banks and insurance companies ran the world on the basis of wide and deep moats built on these 5 factors.
Suddenly, the world moved on.
We watched as a raft of new businesses leveraging the capabilities of the internet took over. Along with the obvious Amazon, Facebook, Alibaba, Google, Uber, Air BnB, eBay, Netflix, Salesforce, and others that are pure internet plays, you had Apple, Microsoft, and more recently Tesla, combining the connectivity of the net with the ‘old school marketing moats’ in whole new ways.
What made the difference?
Each of the newbies benefitted from network effects.
Those that dropped out of sight did not.
Even some of the tech giants of the very early 2000’s, such as Yahoo and Alta Vista have dropped out of sight because they failed to recognise the potential value they had in their hands. They did not leverage the potential network effects.
Those network effects have two differing core types:
- An ecosystem of complementary, and often partially competitive enterprises that support each other’s efforts. This occurs particularly often in R&D, early-stage commercial development and in logistics and supply chain management.
- Double sided markets, such as eBay, Facebook, and Air BnB, where the value of the offering increases with the number of people connected to it.
The answer to the question posed in the header: in your networks!
On a simple scale you see it all the time in retail. The specialist shoe shop in the mall collaborating and cross promoting with the fashion dress shop.
Your networks will build as you create value for others greater than the cost of being a part of the network.
