Economies of technology, not of scale, will be the drivers of success in the future

Economies of technology, not of scale, will be the drivers of success in the future

 

8 years ago I did a research project that required me to have a look at the future of intensive horticulture. As a part of that project I spent a month in the UK looking at what was happening, and was astonished to see the beginning of a production ‘flip’.

Horticulture is relatively intense compared to other forms of farming, but it still required lots of land, water, and labor. In the UK I discovered technology was in the early stages of taking over. Innovators had ‘flipped’ the model and were producing vegetables in capital and IT intensive greenhouses. The day I visited one of the leaders, Barfoots of Botley in 2010, they were completing the commissioning of the first 3 anaerobic digesters  at their main farm in Sussex, using the green waste from produce grown in greenhouses which was already powering the indoor growing beds and packing shed.

In the 8 years since, the progress has been amazing. AeroFarms in the US has attracted significant venture funding, and is one of those changing the face of agriculture by bringing it back to where the population lives, and Barfoots has expanded geometrically.

In Australia we have  very few  examples of this sort of innovation. One is Green Camel farms at Cobbitty on Sydney’s southern outskirts, which has combined greenhouse production of organic herbs and tomatoes with an aquaculture infrastructure producing barramundi in a closed loop system.

The point is that agriculture, like all other industries is being disrupted by technology in ways almost unforeseeable a decade ago.

Technology and capital intensity is replacing scale as the defining feature of success.

Lean Manufacturing seeks ever smaller production runs delivering an even flow of finished product matched to customer demand, as it evolves, eliminating WIP and finished goods inventories while delivering customer specific finished products with minimum lead times.

The days of huge integrated manufacturing plants cranking out product at volume to reduce costs by finding the economies of scale are gone.

Equally, production volumes from thousands of acres of open farmland will be replaced by a vertical capital intensive farm in a disused warehouse somewhere  in the inner city, close to consumers. Bit hard with livestock, but what are feedlots if not capital intensive small footprint farms?

Irrespective of the manufacturing environment, and I see agriculture as just another form of manufacturing, with inputs, WIP, risks, lead times, and all the rest, ‘de-scaled’ manufacturing will become the model our grandchildren will be familiar with. They will probably also be making engine parts in their bedrooms on desktop printers, it will be as normal as CAD software is today.

Header photo: Aerofarms towers

PS. After reading the post, a friend in the business sent me this link to the Panasonic vertical farm in Singapore. The more I dig around, the more convinced I become of the speed and volume of changes about to hit the supply chains of horticulture.

The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect of digital

The ‘Benjamin Button’ effect of digital

 

In the film, Benjamin Button does not age, as those around him do, but he does accumulate the memories and knowledge around him as time passes.

Pretty cool, unless the love of your life is stuck in the present, whatever that is.

For years we have recognised the ‘Button Effect’  emerging with brands in the digital age, brands that leverage both sides of the human equation, the so called network effect.

The more it gets used, the more valuable it becomes.

Accountants and accounting standards are confused by this, as all assets depreciate with use.

Not any more!.

Digital products get more valuable with use.

That is why the monsters in the space, Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook combined have the market capitalisation of all but the top few countries in the world at  around $2.5 trillion dollars US.

Staggering stuff.

What makes them so powerful, a position that has been reached in less than 20 years, replacing 100 years of industrial development around the world?

A very few factors seem common to them, and those coming up behind them, particularly the Chinese marketers, Tencent and Alibaba, along with Uber, Netflix, Spotify, and others.

  • They leverage the network effect, becoming the Benjamin Buttons of marketing , becoming more valuable with use
  • They are global, and their products cross cultural boundaries
  • They are in the lead at developing and deploying cutting edge technology, AI, AR, machine learning, whatever you choose to call it, these companies are leading the pack by leveraging behavioural data they collect with use of their platforms.
  • They seem to be inhabited and driven by ‘kids’ younger than my children. ‘Digital natives’ I guess would be the cliché, but none of the drivers of this revolution would be at the top of a 20th century industrial company, they would not have the experience to navigate the hierarchical structures that ran them.

You do not have to be a new age potentially global behemoth to leverage the network  effects available to you. Small businesses everywhere are becoming the Benjamin Buttons of their local markets, but the rules of engagement have changed. What worked for my generation is no longer enough, leveraging the network effects is now an essential ingredient of continuous renewal.

Credit: header photo from the film . 

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

Pharmacists: Amazon is coming for you!

 

My mother lives by herself in a large regional city in NSW. At 90 she is pretty remarkable,  although some of the bits are wearing out, so she has a pharmacological regime that would make your average teenage party-goer green with envy.

Her pills are made up from the actives by a local chemist with the compounding License that allows him to assemble her prescriptions and combine them, which he then delivers weekly in a pack that reflects the changing nature of the prescriptions written by her doctor.

A great service, and the young entrepreneurial pharmacist has the geriatric market in the town sewn up.

I was thinking of him last week when I saw that Amazon had bought US startup Pillpack for almost a billion dollars. As  a result, the share prices of listed pharmacy retailers, Walgreens and others fell into a hole, a now common outcome when Amazon comes around.

Jeff Bezos has long signaled his interest in the pharmacy market, being a part of Drugstore.com in the 90’s which was eventually bought by drug store chain Walgreens for $400 million, and closed down. He has made other investments in various areas of the health industry over a long period, which should have provided an early warning alarm to the incumbents.  More recently he has launched a venture in collaboration with Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan to disrupt the huge but cosey health insurance market.

I can only wonder at the hand wringing going on in the Walgreens board room. They had a decade to build a moat around their business,  but failed to do so, and now the pirate has returned. This is exactly the same mistake Blockbuster made a couple of years later, by dismissing the overtures of Netflicks, and disappeared as a result. By contrast, the young pharmacist in Armidale will be well insulated, and I suspect will have his own plans to keep his business thriving. Meanwhile I suspect the Pharmacy Guild in Australia will again tread the road of trying to use the regulations as a protective mechanism, and try to fight the tide of change, which is ultimately going to fail.

As I have noted before, love him or hate him, Jeff Bezos is changing the world, perhaps like none before him. The incumbent public  and private institutions of our democratic western economy simply seem unable to accommodate the inevitability of the changes and their impact, and show no sign of being able to evolve sufficiently to do so. The assault on the pharmacy market is simply another example of the speed and certainty of change, which without sufficient ‘strategic intelligence’ being applied, will be the end for status quo driven incumbents.

When you need some of that rare strategic intelligence, more focused than is demonstrated in these pages, call me.

 

Uncovering the Strategic Vs Financial value of your business.

Uncovering the Strategic Vs Financial value of your business.

The valuations put on businesses are typically a calculation based on future earnings, a financial calculation that has always been the basis of company valuations.

We understand it well. Take current earnings and multiply them by a multiple that represents a picture of future earnings. Do some cash flow projections, and apply some risk factors to them,  punch out a NPV and IRR calculations, and bingo, a value.

The financial value of a business.
However, that does not explain the valuations that some businesses reflect when they are sold.

The most obvious example is  Instagram, bought by Facebook for a billion dollars in 2012 when it was little more than a startup in a garage with 13 employees and 30 million users.  Today it has almost a billon users, still growing by leaps and bounds daily, and some put the value north of $50 billion.

The reason it was worth so much at the time, way beyond any financial calculation was its strategic value to Facebook. Instagram had found the mobile crack in desk bound Facebooks amour, and plugging it in a world that was converting to mobile at geometric rates was essential. Hence the strategic value of Instagram.

The same sort of situation faced Google when they were considering YouTube. Its financial value was zero, perhaps negative given the exposure to lawsuits, but Google paid $1.7 billion for it in 2006 when it was still in the garage.  Why? Guess what the second most used search tool in the world is today, yes YouTube. Google was simply protecting its position as the giant in search from a potential intruder, and it had nothing to do with the potential of YouTube to make money.

What is your business worth?

Go to most competent accountants or business brokers and they will give you a range based on the financial parameters and what similar businesses have sold for recently. Easy if you are selling a hairdresser or metal bashing business, but harder when there are few similar businesses being sold.

In that case there is a lot more research and strategic thinking required to uncover the hidden strategic value your business may have to someone, usually unexpected.

Start digging well before the day comes when you want to sell, it may take a while!

 

Is a continuing investment in content valuable?

Is a continuing investment in content valuable?

 

In early 2014 Mark Schaefer posted a piece titled ‘Content shock: Why content marketing is not a sustainable strategy’   on his website.

To me, it is one of the few pieces of truly intelligent strategic thinking I have seen on the topic of ‘Content’.

In the post he poses the proposition that because posting content is free, there would come a tipping point where there was so much content in total, and much of it just regurgitated rubbish, simply generated because it is fashionable, that the impact would be lost.

I think we have passed the point, illustrated in this guest  post from Buzzsumo on Mark’s site.

The data certainly confirms what I see on my site, and in my digital travels every day, but we should not  be surprised. We all know that if something is free, it carries very little value or credibility.

Why then do we continue producing content?

Simple answer: Because when you produce quality, original, thought provoking, instructive and challenging content, it does still deliver a worthwhile strategic outcome. You become seen as an expert, or at least someone worth talking to in your domain.

Producing such content on a continuous basis is very difficult and time consuming. It has a very long lead time before the benefits kick in, so most either give up, or outsource it and generally end up adding to the pile of digital rubbish.

There is a second significant challenge.

Once you produce this great, useful content, you have to get it seen. The biggest challenge in marketing these days is getting attention, and once having got it, not blowing the chance to do something constructive with it, to engage with those to whom you can add value.

This implies a whole lot of other basic marketing challenges, including that you have identified closely your ideal customer, and that you have a closely defined value proposition for them.

Then you have to ‘find‘ them, by one of any number of means, that can involve any or all of a number of strategies leveraging digital media and social platforms, as well as good old fashioned advertising and networking. Having found them, the next step is to engage them in a process that leads to a mutually beneficial commercial relationship.

Great content can drive all these steps.

Once created, great content is the gift that keeps giving. Even if you do not take the obvious steps of refurbishing great content as videos, longer and shorter versions from a tweet to a book, and reposting on various alternative platforms, a great post will continue to deliver viewers to your site, as does this one for me.

The numbers are not spectacular by any measure, but this is one of many posts that delivers page visits daily, to my StrategyAudit site. Despite being almost 5 years old, this post continues to attract increasing attention, which leads to the opportunity to engage and generate business.

So, the answer to the question in the headline is ‘Yes’, with the caveat that, like almost everything n life,  you must be both good at it, and different to the crowd to get noticed.

Photo courtesy Thomas’s pics via Flikr

 

11 hard lessons from 40 years of building and implementing successful marketing plans

11 hard lessons from 40 years of building and implementing successful marketing plans

 

The key word in that headline is ‘Implementing’. A plan is of little value unless it is implemented,  the lessons from the success and failures of that implementation incorporated into the next iteration.

This is not another post about the 55 things to do to have a great marketing plan, this is about the things most forget that are about the organisational and strategic elements that will hinder any successful implementation.

Marketing planning should be a continuous, iterative, and a ‘live’ thing, not a once a year pain in the arse, necessary as a part of the corporate budget process.

To build a plan that serves the purpose of managing the implementation of strategy is a challenging and iterative process of identifying options, and making difficult choices across a host of domains.

Contrary to folk lore, it is a highly data intensive process, with a lot of experience, instinct and skill required that enables connections to be made between pieces of data that may not at first glance  have any real relationship. It is not the ‘smoke and mirrors’ some like to think, it is a tough, demanding but ultimately extremely rewarding process when done well.

You need a strategy

A marketing program operates as a part of an overall strategy, without which it is destined to be an expensive indulgence. Marketing is a key  part of the  delivery mechanism for the strategy. Strategy is all about making the always difficult long term choices, the sort that shape businesses over time, which need to be reflected in the resource allocation and activity decisions which enable implementation.

The importance of context

No enterprise exists in a vacuum. There are a range of factors that exert influence, but over which the individual enterprise has little if any control. The best they can do is accommodate the context into the planning processes, always being aware that factors over which they have no control can change with little or no notice, so retaining the agility to adjust in real time is a profoundly important capability. These factors range from the regulatory regimes, competitive activity, availability of critical capabilities, to long term trends  impacting on the economies in which you compete.

The importance of process

Process is simply the way things get done, from start to finish, in effect it is the plan for  the plan, the framework upon which the plan is built. A marketing plan is a part of a larger business planning process, Strategic, Capital, Operational, Financial, all have a cause and effect role in overall business planning, and a sensible, achievable marketing program cannot be written in isolation from the other functional planning activities, and that of the overall enterprise. There is a natural flow to all these plans, of both timing and necessary cause and effect impacts. For example, there is no point in a marketing plan setting out to launch a product that requires capital to be spent in the factory unless the item is also included in the capital and operational plans. Equally, there is no point spending capital in the absence of a marketing plan to leverage the benefits of the expenditure.

Iteration, experimentation and learning

We are dealing largely with what might work in the future, and courses with credibility in ‘future- telling’ are few and far between. Therefore it pays to have as many options open as possible. This is  not to say we should allow a scatter gun approach to prevail, we should remain focused, but within the parameters of a robust well thought out and understood set of strategic  priorities. It is a balancing act, one that is hard to get right, indeed, we only can judge our efforts accurately with the benefit of hindsight. Management of your ‘experimental portfolio’ should be a key task of the senior marketing person, the one who has the power to allocate the resources and hold them accountable, and certainly not left to the junior just to record activities.

Be specific about what you learnt, which forces clarity, and how you know, which forces objectivity in the place of fluffy subjectivity.  An intensive After Action Review process should be a core part of any marketing implementation.

Critical thinking

Marketing has always suffered from the tendency to be seen as fluffy, unscientific, and subject to leaping from an inadequately defined problem to a convenient solution. It has lacked credibility in the boardroom, where the big decisions are made. Often in the past that has been a fair characterisation, but there is no longer an excuse.

Most board discussions are based on objective data of one sort or another, which usually means it comes from the past. By contrast, marketing is about the future. It relies on assumption, speculation, and ‘mental models‘ as drivers, so carries less credibility than purely objective data.  We now have tools that can deliver some reliability in the cause and effect chains we seek to influence, so long as the hard intellectual graft is done.

If you are to have resources allocated to marketing over the long term that it usually requires to be effective, rather than tied to a changing annual budget cycle, with some artificial calculation tied to sales forecasts, you need credibility. This is where the critical thinking becomes (sorry) Critical! Use of marketing jargon, buzzwords, clichés and opinion may go well in a razzamatazz sales meeting, but where it really counts, at the point where long term resource commitments are made, they are counter-productive. Data and critical analysis is what counts.

In a past corporate life, leading a large marketing function, I insisted on sales forecasts for an initiative of any sort that was going to consume a significant chunk of a marketing budget to be done from several perspectives, and using differing sets of assumptions. The assumptions and perspectives were the subject of the interrogations, rather than just looking at a convenient  extrapolation. While we never got a forecast right, the outcomes were generally in the realms of  reasonable error, we did better the next time, and most importantly, we had the confidence of the board.

Compass Vs Roadmap

Dwight Eisenhower said ‘In preparing for battle, I have always found plans to be useless, but planning is indispensable’.  This is simply a variation on the adage that no plan survives the first contact with the enemy, but adds that the planning is essential. When applied to marketing planning, the same rules apply. To be effective they must drill down to and articulate the drivers and measures of success, provide a framework within which the activity needs to happen, but without dictating the details of the activity. Those facing the situation need to be able to respond to it within the frameworks of the overall strategy and objectives, in real time.

It is the achievement of the objective that is important, not necessarily the means by which it is achieved.

Activities are not outcomes

Too often activities completed are used as performance measures. It may be good to know that an agreed activity has been completed, but of way more importance is the understanding of what happened as a result of the activity.

The better KPI is the behaviour that is the driver of outcomes, rather than some assumption that an activity will deliver an outcome, or some simplistic extrapolation of the past. Results are the outcome of activities that are implemented after consideration of those things both in and out of your control, and will never be as forecast.

Cross Functional

Organisations build a structure to suit their internal processes, it makes the scaling of activity easier. However, customers do not care about your structure, they care about the level of service, quality, timeliness, and all the rest of the factors that add value to them, all of which are all cross functional concerns. Why would you not organise yourself in a manner that reflects what it is that customers are looking for?

Ensuring there is engagement of all functional areas in the development of the marketing plan is essential. They will all play a vital role in the delivery of the plan, and the CMO never has the functional responsibility for them all, so they must be led.

Clear Accountability 

Unambiguous accountability tends to focus the mind on the outcomes, which generally leads to better performance. Accountability also however comes with the requirement that the resources are made available to get the job done, properly, which is code for being accountable for the outcomes. The power to allocate resources is a key part of real accountability, rather than just its sibling, ‘responsibility’ which implies completing a specified activity.

In recent times, we have moved from individual accountability to team accountability, which has significantly complicated the management and leadership game, while offering the potential for huge gains in outcome. Holding an individual accountable can be done with just ‘management’, but effectively holding a team accountable for an outcome requires true leadership.

Plans should tell stories

Any plan, to be effective, must tell a story about the journey, the anticipated problems, alternatives considered, and the value of the outcome.

Marketing and importantly, brand building, are all about the stories we tell ourselves, and others, that illustrate how something has given us ‘value’ in some way.  Without a simple, illustrative story, all the rest just boils down to price on the day. All the great marketing we see tells a story of some sort that evokes a positive emotion towards the product. Apple tells a story, as did Meadow Lea (they stopped 20 years ago, but the effect lingers) Nike, Coca Cola, so tell yours in the plan.

My kids first dog, ‘Tamba’ was a great friend to them all. She/it played with them for as long as they wanted, protected them, and gave unconditional love, seeking nothing more than a pat behind the ears and a bit of ‘doggy-love’.  One day Tamba was a bit subdued, obviously with some version of doggy flu. Off to the vet who gave us some pills to administer, along with instructions. At home I shoved the pill to the back of Tamba’s throat, and held  her mouth shut for a while. As I let go, to her obvious relief, thinking the pill would be swallowed, up it came, back into my hand, a mess of dissolved pill and dog saliva. My neighbour, a ‘dog whisperer’ recommended I hide the pill in a spoonful of Vegemite on a square of toast, and offer it to Tamba. Whoof… gone! No pill.

I am constantly reminded of this story as I talk to clients, and watch marketing activity designed to generate a response. It is all facts, data, dry boring old stuff that has no emotion. It is like trying to get Tamba to take the pill, impossible until it was wrapped in something she loved.

Even the best plan does not implement itself

Planning is only the first step, one that without implementation is pointless. As my old dad used to say, 1/10 for the plan son, the other 9 points are reserved for implementation.