Now we have a legislated ceiling on carbon emissions, ‘The safeguards mechanism’ the challenge is to ensure compliance.

That is the hardest part, yet to come.

The means by which the emissions will be reduced by business are unregulated, but there is no doubt it will incur capital expenditure. This will provide a challenge for business, that generally sees their first priority delivering immediate returns to shareholders.

Where will the balance be between their regulated and long term moral public responsibility, their short-term responsibility, and often the jobs of decision makers fall?

How will the safeguards mechanism be governed for the long-term benefit of all?

There are two ways to govern the implementation.

The first is the one always top of a governments list, regulation. Sadly, it will not work very well. You can regulate, inspect and punish to the letter of the law, and when necessary, regulate further till the sky turns black. The short-term cost of compliance is likely to be less than the profit generated by finding loopholes and screwing the system. In addition, the regulators are in the thrall of the carbon generating industries, and will always be behind the latest discovery of holes through which businesses can squirm if they choose.

The second is the same as the above, with a wrinkle to fill the unanticipated and unseen holes. Publish the results in a form easily understood by Joe Public. For greater effect, add a few extra columns, such as the domicile of the controlling entity, Income tax paid, and profits declared.

This would bring into play a powerful motivator, Social Proof.

Rio felt the weight of Social Proof when they destroyed the Juukan Gorge caves. I suspect the internal culture of Rio has changed as a result. While this is an extreme example, it makes the point.

Such a publicly available register, all data coming from public sources, (compliance reports, Tax department, stock exchange notices) would serve as a resource for those advocating for change. It would also be a source of goodwill and potentially stock market value for those doing the right thing.

Publishing data on all the top 500 polluters would lead, in a relatively short time, to behaviour changes that will do more for carbon emission reduction than regulation by itself can hope to achieve. It might also lead to a few of the most obvious changes to the tax rules applying to internationally domiciled businesses to be made. The irony is that it is also a simple solution, so will probably not be considered.

Header cartoon credit: Again, Scott Adams and Dilbert distil the challenge into a few words and drawings.